RoboMacro Logo
RoboMacro
No Human in the Loop
Stealth · Agent Payments

The x402 Index

An independent record of what AI agents actually pay for, read from Base directly. No aggregator is in this pipeline. Every payment carries a confidence tier, and the share we can name is published as a number rather than implied.

162,715,407 authorizations · Base · 2025-03-23 to 2026-08-12 · built 2026-08-12 20:12:35Z

Authorizations
162,715,407
EIP-3009 gasless transfers on Base USDC
Settled value
$96,402,468
all tiers, gross
Named (tier A)
0.004%
share of value paid to an address we probed ourselves
Live endpoints
32
of 1,625 candidates probed
Untiered
0
every payment carries a tier
Settlement

Counting payments and counting money give different answers

Both series start at 100. They do not stay together, and that gap is why a headline transaction count for this ecosystem can run to nine figures while settled value stays in the low tens of millions.

Payment count vs settled value, indexed to 100

Tiers A+B. Both series rebased to 100 on the first day clearing 1,000 payments — 2025-07-23 — because dividing by a three-payment day indexes to twenty billion and hides the comparison.

Payment count and settled value indexed to 100 at first observation, 386 daily points from 2025-07-23 to 2026-08-12. Final count index 11588, final value index 73268.
2025-09-212025-12-072026-02-232026-05-122026-08-1202.5M5.0M7.5M10.0M
  • Payment count
  • Settled value

Payments per day

Tiers A+B.

Daily payment count, 479 points. Latest 118,777 on 2026-08-12. Peak 4,000,668.
2025-07-082025-10-112026-01-132026-04-192026-08-1201.5M3.0M4.5M6.0M

Settled value per day

Tiers A+B, USDC.

Daily settled value in USDC, 479 points. Latest $25,503 on 2026-08-12.
2025-07-082025-10-112026-01-132026-04-192026-08-120800k1.6M2.4M3.2M

Distinct buyers and sellers per day

Distinct buyer and seller wallets per day, 479 points. Latest buyers 2,221, sellers 730.
2025-07-082025-10-112026-01-132026-04-192026-08-12015k30k45k60k
  • buyers
  • sellers

Mean vs median ticket

USDC. The gap is the skew: a handful of large payments against a very long tail of tiny ones.

Mean and median payment size in USDC per day. Latest mean $0.22, latest median $0.01.
2025-07-082025-10-112026-01-132026-04-192026-08-12$0.000$0.001$0.010$0.100$1$10$100
  • mean
  • median
Structure

Where the money actually is

Drawn as a pair on purpose. Counts and value answer different questions, and publishing only one of them is how this ecosystem's headline figures became misleading.

Share of payment count, by ticket size

Share of payment count by ticket size: < $0.01 33.0%, $0.01–0.10 39.1%, $0.10–1 14.6%, $1–10 13.0%, $10–100 0.2%, $100+ 0.1%.
< $0.01$0.01–0.10$0.10–1$1–10$10–100$100+0%10%20%30%40%

Share of settled value, by ticket size

Share of settled value by ticket size: < $0.01 0.2%, $0.01–0.10 2.2%, $0.10–1 6.5%, $1–10 51.5%, $10–100 10.0%, $100+ 29.6%.
< $0.01$0.01–0.10$0.10–1$1–10$10–100$100+0%15%30%45%60%

Ticket-size mix over time

Share of weekly payment count. The story is whether the mix drifts upward, not any single snapshot.

Weekly ticket-size mix, 67 weeks, shares of payment count across six buckets from under one cent to over one hundred dollars.
2025-07-282025-10-272026-01-262026-04-272026-08-100%25%50%75%100%
  • < $0.01
  • $0.01–0.10
  • $0.10–1
  • $1–10
  • $10–100
  • $100+
Method

How confident we are, and why

EIP-3009 is not exclusively x402 — gasless wallet relayers use the same mechanism. That ambiguity is the reason for the tier system rather than something to hide.

Authorization lifetime

An x402 authorization is minted per request and expires in minutes. A wallet transfer carries hours or days. This distribution is the separator, on screen rather than asserted.

Authorization lifetime distribution: 0-1m 3,352,232 payments, 1-5m 32,901,394 payments, 5-15m 86,789,571 payments, 15-60m 31,884,512 payments, 1h-1d 1,233,517 payments, 1d-1w 127,361 payments, >1w 208,464 payments, unknown 6,218,356 payments.
0-1m1-5m5-15m15-60m1h-1d1d-1w>1wunknown025.0M50.0M75.0M100.0Mtier C / D boundary

Confidence mix over time

Share of weekly payment count by tier.

Weekly confidence-tier mix across 74 weeks, tiers A through D as shares of payment count.
2025-03-172025-06-232025-09-292026-01-052026-04-132026-08-100%25%50%75%100%
  • Tier A
  • Tier B
  • Tier C
  • Tier D

What we can name

Left axis: share of monthly value paid to an address we probed ourselves. Right axis: share of payments whose payee we could not resolve. Separate axes because the two differ by four orders of magnitude.

Monthly named share of value (tier A) and unresolved-payee share, 18 months. Latest named 0.049%.
2025-04-012025-08-012025-12-012026-04-012026-08-010.00%0.01%0.03%0.04%0.06%0%25%50%75%100%
  • Named (tier A)
  • Unresolved payee

The four tiers

Tiers are derived, not stored, so a payment recorded in March upgrades the day its endpoint enters the registry.

Tier totals: tier A 86,881 payments $4,307; tier B 157,407,345 payments $40,344,362; tier C 2,547,315 payments $17,644,491; tier D 2,673,866 payments $38,409,307.
  • Tier A0.1% of payments
    Payee is in our probed registry
    Payments
    86,881
    Value
    $4,307
    Sellers
    15
  • Tier B96.7% of payments
    Relayed by a detected facilitator
    Payments
    157,407,345
    Value
    $40,344,362
    Sellers
    241,158
  • Tier C1.6% of payments
    Short authorization window, unconfirmed
    Payments
    2,547,315
    Value
    $17,644,491
    Sellers
    3,381
  • Tier D1.6% of payments
    Long or unreadable expiry — probably a wallet
    Payments
    2,673,866
    Value
    $38,409,307
    Sellers
    22,046
Concentration

Is the long tail thickening?

The question that decides whether this is a market or a demo.

Top-10 share of value

Monthly, sellers and buyers.

Monthly top-10 share of value for sellers and buyers across 18 months.
2025-04-012025-07-012025-10-012026-01-012026-04-012026-08-010%25%50%75%100%
  • Top-10 sellers
  • Top-10 buyers

Herfindahl index

Monthly HHI on value share. Higher means more concentrated.

Monthly Herfindahl index for sellers and buyers across 18 months.
2025-04-012025-07-012025-10-012026-01-012026-04-012026-08-010.000.090.180.270.36
  • Sellers
  • Buyers

Can anyone live on this?

Count of sellers clearing each monthly revenue threshold. The chart that decides whether x402 is a business or a benchmark.

Sellers clearing monthly revenue thresholds across 16 months. Latest: 322 over $10, 101 over $100, 33 over $1,000, 6 over $10,000.
2025-05-012025-08-012025-11-012026-02-012026-05-012026-08-012720702007002k6k
  • ≥ $10/mo
  • ≥ $100/mo
  • ≥ $1k/mo
  • ≥ $10k/mo
Retention

Do buyers come back, and do sellers survive?

Cohort retention is the most honest adoption metric available for this ecosystem, and nobody publishes it.

Buyer cohort retention

Each line is a monthly cohort; share of that cohort still paying N months later. Last six cohorts.

Buyer cohort retention curves for 6 monthly cohorts over up to 12 months.
0123456789101112months after first payment0%25%50%75%100%
  • 2026-03-01
  • 2026-04-01
  • 2026-05-01
  • 2026-06-01
  • 2026-07-01
  • 2026-08-01

Seller survival by cohort

Share of each month's new sellers still earning in the last 30 days.

Seller survival by monthly cohort, 16 cohorts. 2025-05-01: 3 of 34 still earning; 2025-06-01: 1 of 29 still earning; 2025-07-01: 3 of 154 still earning; 2025-08-01: 1 of 232 still earning; 2025-09-01: 3 of 80 still earning; 2025-10-01: 28 of 23,972 still earning; 2025-11-01: 51 of 33,283 still earning; 2025-12-01: 34 of 7,361 still earning; 2026-01-01: 29 of 1,142 still earning; 2026-02-01: 79 of 1,169 still earning; 2026-03-01: 119 of 5,053 still earning; 2026-04-01: 571 of 20,502 still earning; 2026-05-01: 806 of 40,118 still earning; 2026-06-01: 1,487 of 20,839 still earning; 2026-07-01: 54,211 of 82,410 still earning; 2026-08-01: 4,795 of 4,795 still earning.
2025-05-012025-08-012025-11-012026-02-012026-05-012026-08-01025k50k75k100k0%25%50%75%100%
  • New sellers
  • Still earning
  • Survival %
Plumbing

Who relays the market

Facilitators are detected behaviourally — one address relaying authorizations signed by many wallets to many payees, on machine-speed expiries — so a new entrant appears the month it launches rather than whenever someone updates a list.

Facilitator share of relayed payments

Monthly, top 6 by total volume.

Monthly facilitator share of relayed payment count for the top 6 relayers across 18 months.
2025-04-012025-07-012025-10-012026-01-012026-04-012026-08-010%25%50%75%100%
  • 0x279e08…8a4653
  • 0x3a7078…cc2104
  • 0x708e57…10eca1
  • 0xcbb10c…b4e03a
  • 0x001dda…7c8d9c
  • 0x7f6d82…6be056

Days that broke trend

Flagged at 2.5 sigma on count or value, with the single largest buyer's share of that day. Count spikes and value spikes are different events here.

17 anomalous days flagged. 2025-11-01: 1,305,962 payments, $1,124,740, largest buyer 16.5% of value; 2025-11-02: 2,572,717 payments, $1,808,407, largest buyer 33.3% of value; 2025-11-03: 3,395,460 payments, $3,109,300, largest buyer 33.2% of value; 2025-11-12: 2,199,513 payments, $1,054,575, largest buyer 82.8% of value; 2025-11-13: 3,521,866 payments, $1,823,945, largest buyer 56.0% of value; 2025-11-14: 3,046,170 payments, $2,011,745, largest buyer 46.5% of value; 2025-11-15: 4,000,668 payments, $2,429,220, largest buyer 43.0% of value; 2025-11-16: 3,800,911 payments, $2,194,176, largest buyer 44.2% of value.
02468036912
Ledger

Who is earning, and who is nobody

The unknown-payee queue is the interesting one: every row is money moving through a service no directory has catalogued.

Top sellers, last 30 days

Named where our registry can name them.

Top sellers by value over the last 30 days: 0xe9030014f5dae217d0a152f02a043567b16c1abf $167,781 across 5,224,556 payments; 0x68396bd35874695ad86cd29410bd80a550991a2b $105,315 across 130,603 payments; 0xb0af3ccf9154f81af07a194150113523767d7de0 $92,382 across 9,563 payments; 0xe1930e8a9b8426bc770adc17f54316d622193b4d $52,448 across 2 payments; 0xe9f16b8f7b8b1e38f6e69e34c69b93d271fd4c8e $35,931 across 3 payments; 0x47d3394c7234714e4b9e9b74827c12be847f9dda $31,771 across 15,240 payments; 0xe3af1e191ad71900a8254d28564737089ea70388 $23,872 across 2 payments; 0xfa02300b1a598daba1b27b2bf79f9775355dac82 $21,001 across 3 payments; 0x2f865d9b65ff47ff26b56ec01e6600e7830dd374 $18,963 across 14 payments; 0x9e97ea8d7d3ce88df4eba5d82b6c99a4110a881c $18,500 across 13 payments; 0xc27842f0ea41416f92e34e3122249a7de464cb5c $16,517 across 2 payments; 0x84aab32564e7894c8c39c5c7751915c311eca320 $16,196 across 17 payments; 0xca62a351c366423af033fc631399351ab0405096 $14,990 across 1 payments; 0x020b12583b6c1be892b7ad25b17f3ef86fb5e5de $14,822 across 2 payments; 0xffde1acbac169f822dabc3d97d6d7127dcae6003 $14,671 across 20 payments.
  • 0xe90300…6c1abf
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    5,224,556
    Value
    $167,781
    Buyers
    839
    Mean
    $0.03
  • 0x68396b…991a2b
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    130,603
    Value
    $105,315
    Buyers
    722
    Mean
    $0.81
  • 0xb0af3c…7d7de0
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    9,563
    Value
    $92,382
    Buyers
    16
    Mean
    $9.66
  • 0xe1930e…193b4d
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    2
    Value
    $52,448
    Buyers
    2
    Mean
    $26,224.04
  • 0xe9f16b…fd4c8e
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    3
    Value
    $35,931
    Buyers
    3
    Mean
    $11,976.89
  • 0x47d339…7f9dda
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    15,240
    Value
    $31,771
    Buyers
    28
    Mean
    $2.08
  • 0xe3af1e…a70388
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    2
    Value
    $23,872
    Buyers
    2
    Mean
    $11,936.19
  • 0xfa0230…5dac82
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    3
    Value
    $21,001
    Buyers
    1
    Mean
    $7,000.33
  • 0x2f865d…0dd374
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    14
    Value
    $18,963
    Buyers
    1
    Mean
    $1,354.47
  • 0x9e97ea…0a881c
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    13
    Value
    $18,500
    Buyers
    1
    Mean
    $1,423.08
  • 0xc27842…64cb5c
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    2
    Value
    $16,517
    Buyers
    2
    Mean
    $8,258.70
  • 0x84aab3…eca320
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    17
    Value
    $16,196
    Buyers
    2
    Mean
    $952.72
  • 0xca62a3…405096
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    1
    Value
    $14,990
    Buyers
    1
    Mean
    $14,990.27
  • 0x020b12…b5e5de
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    2
    Value
    $14,822
    Buyers
    2
    Mean
    $7,411.15
  • 0xffde1a…ae6003
    Service
    unnamed
    Payments
    20
    Value
    $14,671
    Buyers
    12
    Mean
    $733.54

Unnamed addresses earning real money

The research queue. Ranked by value, all-time.

Unnamed addresses earning money: 0xf7b1356cfed0eebe01d76da7ba9e9f8bf12d9d57 $11,521,905 across 12,383,466 payments at a mean of $0.93; 0xc51e9af67c16a7176e244d8803a32aaf1430cb08 $11,088,121 across 9,855 payments at a mean of $1,125.13; 0x07737a1fb3863202bcd3c7408b801eed68604d39 $6,997,809 across 886,049 payments at a mean of $7.90; 0x42ec2a5fc5a23553a353a4219a42dea765877160 $6,343,837 across 16,268 payments at a mean of $389.96; 0xef4364fe4487353df46eb7c811d4fac78b856c7f $4,884,871 across 2,359,244 payments at a mean of $2.07; 0x32d95f243f9e2c1344e4baa91a8d32711527ef7e $3,826,356 across 1,996 payments at a mean of $1,917.01; 0x5e50d23ec14ea4436582029a25313e5048e01d10 $2,738,693 across 8,910,375 payments at a mean of $0.31; 0x45a33ac6db4455460b364a1fc1ae8c489bc644a7 $2,598,089 across 10,928,813 payments at a mean of $0.24; 0x783a045d2fbe37ce593c0c19e5b32b1504f5b49e $2,298,071 across 139 payments at a mean of $16,532.88; 0x7dbb4bdcfe614398d1a68ecc219f15280d0959e0 $2,224,590 across 4,933 payments at a mean of $450.96; 0x4e9bce2547a9491b09ed092c433b19888e665edb $2,057,789 across 6,452,001 payments at a mean of $0.32; 0x4465e319dfbc83ba19758f8fab487dd49451b7c9 $1,337,065 across 1,865 payments at a mean of $716.92; 0xf70da97812cb96acdf810712aa562db8dfa3dbef $862,385 across 4,455 payments at a mean of $193.58; 0x15adc3ecc30e84e2ec8d5da06aad41f190b37b3e $698,342 across 151 payments at a mean of $4,624.78; 0x27599d824bbb4f506f985af865d840f61ba848c8 $664,164 across 6,641,642 payments at a mean of $0.10.
  • 0xf7b135…2d9d57
    Payments
    12,383,466
    Value
    $11,521,905
    Mean ticket
    $0.93
  • 0xc51e9a…30cb08
    Payments
    9,855
    Value
    $11,088,121
    Mean ticket
    $1,125.13
  • 0x07737a…604d39
    Payments
    886,049
    Value
    $6,997,809
    Mean ticket
    $7.90
  • 0x42ec2a…877160
    Payments
    16,268
    Value
    $6,343,837
    Mean ticket
    $389.96
  • 0xef4364…856c7f
    Payments
    2,359,244
    Value
    $4,884,871
    Mean ticket
    $2.07
  • 0x32d95f…27ef7e
    Payments
    1,996
    Value
    $3,826,356
    Mean ticket
    $1,917.01
  • 0x5e50d2…e01d10
    Payments
    8,910,375
    Value
    $2,738,693
    Mean ticket
    $0.31
  • 0x45a33a…c644a7
    Payments
    10,928,813
    Value
    $2,598,089
    Mean ticket
    $0.24
  • 0x783a04…f5b49e
    Payments
    139
    Value
    $2,298,071
    Mean ticket
    $16,532.88
  • 0x7dbb4b…0959e0
    Payments
    4,933
    Value
    $2,224,590
    Mean ticket
    $450.96
  • 0x4e9bce…665edb
    Payments
    6,452,001
    Value
    $2,057,789
    Mean ticket
    $0.32
  • 0x4465e3…51b7c9
    Payments
    1,865
    Value
    $1,337,065
    Mean ticket
    $716.92
  • 0xf70da9…a3dbef
    Payments
    4,455
    Value
    $862,385
    Mean ticket
    $193.58
  • 0x15adc3…b37b3e
    Payments
    151
    Value
    $698,342
    Mean ticket
    $4,624.78
  • 0x27599d…a848c8
    Payments
    6,641,642
    Value
    $664,164
    Mean ticket
    $0.10

Top buyers, last 30 days

Wallets spending the most.

Top buyers by value over the last 30 days: 0x2b4ee3387008e5ff1a9996fc8b48d2fd61389037 $165,629; 0xe9f16b8f7b8b1e38f6e69e34c69b93d271fd4c8e $35,931; 0x0dda5fdca95b4f89a14b9ce3bedf4141e1e3d9f7 $26,805; 0xe63e151504da0a1b07a31a72dbabda6240359893 $21,082; 0x453c6322080c9513ab5b46d0498660c8153bfb00 $21,023; 0x2b04095083f1520a15bb1ea14c0c99355738f457 $20,049; 0xe1627edaa3da4612e8ff7a9034d4d546fde46095 $18,500; 0xc27842f0ea41416f92e34e3122249a7de464cb5c $16,517; 0xb66aca12105adf914eea28fcce902fe2ede004f4 $16,000; 0x748b1d34a86c202bab55115ee3e679203ac13d6e $15,572; 0xe6d3820b640ff094a69e3ef75b9df53814808e2f $14,990; 0xc50b381bbe5dafdd183eafb51c7991b246481455 $13,512.
  • 0x2b4ee3…389037
    Payments
    5,189,501
    Value
    $165,629
    Sellers
    1
  • 0xe9f16b…fd4c8e
    Payments
    1
    Value
    $35,931
    Sellers
    1
  • 0x0dda5f…e3d9f7
    Payments
    595
    Value
    $26,805
    Sellers
    2
  • 0xe63e15…359893
    Payments
    201
    Value
    $21,082
    Sellers
    8
  • 0x453c63…3bfb00
    Payments
    74
    Value
    $21,023
    Sellers
    7
  • 0x2b0409…38f457
    Payments
    18
    Value
    $20,049
    Sellers
    4
  • 0xe1627e…e46095
    Payments
    13
    Value
    $18,500
    Sellers
    1
  • 0xc27842…64cb5c
    Payments
    1
    Value
    $16,517
    Sellers
    1
  • 0xb66aca…e004f4
    Payments
    446
    Value
    $16,000
    Sellers
    2
  • 0x748b1d…c13d6e
    Payments
    11
    Value
    $15,572
    Sellers
    8
  • 0xe6d382…808e2f
    Payments
    1
    Value
    $14,990
    Sellers
    1
  • 0xc50b38…481455
    Payments
    1
    Value
    $13,512
    Sellers
    1

Endpoints that answered a 402

The probed registry. These are the only addresses that can reach tier A.

Probed registry: a2a.sntl.site, agi.apify.com, api.bitrefill.com, api.bitrefill.com, api.ipintel.ai, api.loyalspark.online, api.loyalspark.online, api.loyalspark.online, api.loyalspark.online, api.loyalspark.online, api.loyalspark.online, api.loyalspark.online, api.loyalspark.online, api.loyalspark.online, api.printmoneylab.com, api.proxyllm.ai, api.regressionincoming.fyi, api.x402oracle.com, base-intel-api.jakemaxsigal.workers.dev, cheaptokens.ai, eltociear-contract-guard.hf.space, eltociear-skill-audit.hf.space, eltociear-skill-audit.hf.space, eltociear-tokenguard.hf.space, google-trends.use.x402atlas.com, kerne.fi, kronossignals.com, kronossignals.com, weather.payapi.market, x402.browserbase.com, x402deploy.vercel.app, x402deploy.vercel.app.
  • a2a.sntl.site
    Description
    Tiered pay-per-record access to DePIN RF telemetry and spati
  • agi.apify.com
    Description
    —
  • api.bitrefill.com
    Description
    —
  • api.bitrefill.com
    Description
    —
  • api.ipintel.ai
    Description
    IPIntel.ai IP threat intelligence lookup
  • api.loyalspark.online
    Description
    Onchain loyalty platform on Base Network. Businesses launch
  • api.loyalspark.online
    Description
    Onchain loyalty platform on Base Network. Businesses launch
  • api.loyalspark.online
    Description
    Onchain loyalty platform on Base Network. Businesses launch
  • api.loyalspark.online
    Description
    Onchain loyalty platform on Base Network. Businesses launch
  • api.loyalspark.online
    Description
    Onchain loyalty platform on Base Network. Businesses launch
  • api.loyalspark.online
    Description
    Onchain loyalty platform on Base Network. Businesses launch
  • api.loyalspark.online
    Description
    Onchain loyalty platform on Base Network. Businesses launch
Every second Saturday

The fortnightly note

A one-to-two minute read on what actually moved, drawn from the same data as this page. Every figure in it is computed from chain — the prose cannot carry a number we did not compute.

Value contracts while count holds as cent-to-dime tickets lose groundlatest
2026-07-29 to 2026-08-11 · 5 charts · 397 words
All RoboMacro research notes →

Methodology

USDC implements EIP-3009. Every gasless authorized transfer emits AuthorizationUsed on the token contract, so one topic-filtered query finds every candidate payment on a chain. For each we decode the calldata to recover payee, amount and validity window; tx.from is the relayer.

The same mechanism carries ordinary gasless wallet transfers. Rather than publish one number and hope nobody asks, every payment is tiered, and the thresholds below are editorial choices we state rather than hide. Change one and the whole history is reclassified.

  • Tier A — the payee is in our probed registry: we personally received a 402 challenge from an endpoint naming this address.
  • Tier B — relayed by an address our detector classifies as a facilitator; payee unnamed.
  • Tier C — authorization lifetime at or under 60 minutes, consistent with per-request minting, but no facilitator or registry match.
  • Tier D — long or unreadable expiry. Probably a wallet, not x402.

Coverage: 6,157,928 payments (3.78%) were batched through a proxy or bundler, where the calldata describes something other than a single authorization; those keep an unresolved payee rather than a guessed one. Solana uses a different mechanism entirely and is not covered — this index is Base only. Tier A means an endpoint claimed an address, not that ownership is proven.

RoboMacro Research · built 2026-08-12 20:12:35 UTC · 162,715,407 authorizations on disk

Sponsored by Arbitrage Search

RoboMacro

Automating macroeconomic research and analysis through AI-powered podcast generation and research papers.

Explore

Follow Us

YouTube ChannelX (Twitter)

© 2026 RoboMacro. All rights reserved.