Experiment
Timestral
Experiment. Mistral Timestral, scored on our prints. Not investment advice.
What this is
Timestral is Mistral’s time-series model. The playground runs the 28M checkpoint on CPU and returns 21 quantiles. The nightly files on the other tabs use the 209M checkpoint. It can take a target, past covariates, and values that are already known over the forecast horizon, including categories such as the month of the year.
Why it is here
One checkpoint can attempt a next print on series we do not custom-model. The release calendar is something the model is allowed to see in advance. The fan is a set of quantiles, not a residual standard deviation. A public benchmark win is not a claim about payrolls. Each challenger tab has a next-step fan and a last-12 walk-forward on the latest vintage. Payrolls also scores the first prints we already have.
