Experiment
Timestral
US crude stocks ex SPR
week-of-year · Cushing stocks (past)
Timestral-28M · 2026-10-20T16:44:20+00:00 · 21 quantiles; bands shown are 10/90, 20/80, 30/70.
| Step | q5 | q10 | q25 | q50 | q75 | q90 | q95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t+1 | 405565.56 | 407979.66 | 411396.19 | 414758.06 | 418202.66 | 422121.31 | 424812.69 |
| t+2 | 401530.50 | 404803.78 | 409721.81 | 415175.50 | 420472.88 | 425775.63 | 429276.84 |
| t+3 | 398199.59 | 402250.94 | 408405.53 | 415293.44 | 422032.75 | 428530.09 | 432764.94 |
| t+4 | 394731.50 | 399596.75 | 406899.06 | 414951.00 | 422872.66 | 430517.69 | 435410.84 |
Last 8 prints, one step ahead
Expanding origin on the series as currently published. This is not a real-time vintage. MAE 3040.668 kbbl. 7/8 actuals inside the 10–90 band.
| Date | Actual | Median | q10 | q90 | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | 428910.00 | 429390.13 | 420760.78 | 436788.19 | 480.13 |
| 2026-08-28 | 424460.00 | 429644.19 | 422236.69 | 436284.00 | 5184.19 |
| 2026-09-04 | 424069.00 | 424774.72 | 417558.19 | 431611.63 | 705.72 |
| 2026-09-11 | 423429.00 | 424626.00 | 417620.47 | 431325.81 | 1197.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | 426398.00 | 423891.81 | 417325.00 | 430255.00 | -2506.19 |
| 2026-09-25 | 427320.00 | 427852.63 | 421588.94 | 433913.63 | 532.63 |
| 2026-10-02 | 424134.00 | 429019.63 | 423211.19 | 434948.06 | 4885.63 |
| 2026-10-09 | 415577.00 | 424410.88 | 418643.59 | 430516.84 | 8833.88 |
This is not a WTI forecast. Week-of-year is the known calendar. An OPEC-week flag is omitted: there is no stable JSON calendar to join.
US housing starts
month-of-year · 30-year mortgage rate (past) · permits (past)
Timestral-28M · 2026-10-20T16:44:20+00:00 · 21 quantiles; bands shown are 10/90, 20/80, 30/70.
| Step | q5 | q10 | q25 | q50 | q75 | q90 | q95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t+1 | 1184.82 | 1218.34 | 1270.13 | 1322.39 | 1376.82 | 1429.86 | 1464.62 |
| t+2 | 1178.73 | 1214.62 | 1269.44 | 1324.46 | 1380.49 | 1437.28 | 1473.79 |
| t+3 | 1171.59 | 1212.01 | 1269.47 | 1327.22 | 1386.07 | 1444.67 | 1484.66 |
Last 12 prints, one step ahead
Expanding origin on the series as currently published. This is not a real-time vintage. MAE 70.7066 thousands SAAR. 9/12 actuals inside the 10–90 band.
| Date | Actual | Median | q10 | q90 | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | 1273.00 | 1354.94 | 1255.83 | 1460.38 | 81.94 |
| 2025-11-01 | 1319.00 | 1337.28 | 1237.69 | 1443.23 | 18.28 |
| 2025-12-01 | 1378.00 | 1333.92 | 1240.90 | 1433.49 | -44.08 |
| 2026-01-01 | 1385.00 | 1362.76 | 1266.95 | 1468.52 | -22.24 |
| 2026-02-01 | 1346.00 | 1349.61 | 1252.53 | 1447.70 | 3.61 |
| 2026-03-01 | 1522.00 | 1384.09 | 1279.72 | 1493.68 | -137.91 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1414.00 | 1376.60 | 1259.48 | 1493.70 | -37.40 |
| 2026-05-01 | 1182.00 | 1375.37 | 1261.79 | 1485.80 | 193.37 |
| 2026-06-01 | 1439.00 | 1332.30 | 1208.53 | 1455.66 | -106.70 |
| 2026-07-01 | 1369.00 | 1351.53 | 1232.32 | 1465.04 | -17.47 |
| 2026-08-01 | 1288.00 | 1356.76 | 1244.10 | 1466.13 | 68.76 |
| 2026-09-01 | 1221.00 | 1337.73 | 1230.98 | 1448.63 | 116.73 |
This is starts, not house prices. The mortgage rate is past-only: next month's rate is not known.
