Experiment

Timestral

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Experiment. Mistral Timestral, scored on our prints. Not investment advice.

Timestral median

Oct 2026 NFP · thousands

Core ensemble

Oct 2026 NFP · thousands

Street

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Oct 2026 NFP · thousands

Timestral-28M · 2026-10-20T16:44:14+00:00 · 21 quantiles; bands shown are 10/90, 20/80, 30/70. The grey pair is the published core-ensemble 80% band, not blended into the median.

Step	q5	q10	q25	q50	q75	q90	q95
t+1	-114.23	-69.15	-1.95	73.85	145.48	215.93	265.94

Last 12 prints, one step ahead

Expanding origin on the series as currently published. This is not a real-time vintage. MAE 98.8918 thousands. 8/12 actuals inside the 10–90 band.

Date	Actual	Median	q10	q90	Error
2025-10-01	-140.00	35.73	-85.45	149.59	175.73
2025-11-01	41.00	-12.62	-172.24	133.14	-53.62
2025-12-01	-17.00	2.77	-153.40	142.20	19.77
2026-01-01	160.00	-15.79	-167.45	115.93	-175.79
2026-02-01	-156.00	21.52	-131.56	161.12	177.52
2026-03-01	214.00	5.61	-156.07	152.58	-208.39
2026-04-01	148.00	22.20	-156.71	193.24	-125.80
2026-05-01	63.00	71.62	-108.60	237.42	8.62
2026-06-01	31.00	84.19	-88.16	251.77	53.19
2026-07-01	-10.00	69.19	-93.50	230.14	79.19
2026-08-01	133.00	58.48	-90.38	204.32	-74.52
2026-09-01	29.00	63.58	-83.13	204.78	34.58

Context is the latest published vintage, not the real-time vintage. The score, when we have one, is against the first print. Context uses the series as currently published.

First print

Scored against the first print on the 4 month reviews we have. The headline MAE waits for six.

Month	First print	Timestral	Core	Street
2026-09	29	73.854706	87.1133561234079	90
2026-08	162	63.576111	66.24328852919157	53
2026-07	-23	58.483162	83.55998625604899	80
2026-06	57	69.187508	91.30406525896299	110