v6 · IRF · evaluation
Bilateral tariffs at 25%. Every path is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast and not financial advice.
This note traces the model response to 25% US–China tariffs each way. Every path is an impulse response versus an unchanged baseline — not a forecast of what will happen in the world and not a reading of market data. The chapters that follow are already sorted by the size of the GDP response.
China is where the shock lands. GDP contracts by 0.51% by Q1, a first-order GDP response for 25% US–China tariffs each way. Equities soften 1.07%, and the three-year CPI impulse is +0.66 percentage points. The move shows up first in government debt, then in private investment and the trade balance. That is the main adjustment: a change in financial conditions and real income, then the usual lag into activity and prices. It is the conditional elasticity to the shock that was switched on, not a prediction that this path will be realised.
Spillovers are not a carbon copy of that first path. The United States contracts by 0.33% versus baseline by Q17 — a first-order GDP response. Equities soften 1.10%, and the three-year CPI impulse is +1.19 percentage points. The move shows up first in private investment, then in government debt and the trade balance. Canada expands by 0.19% versus baseline by Q1 — a moderate GDP response. Equities firm 0.48%. The move shows up first in private investment, then in the trade balance and household consumption. Mexico expands by 0.19% versus baseline by Q1 — a moderate GDP response. Equities firm 0.34%. The move shows up first in private investment, then in the trade balance and government debt. The contrast is the point: the two tariffed economies do not print the same path as a bystander that only sees diverted trade.
Malaysia expands by 0.14% versus baseline by Q1 — a moderate GDP response. Equities firm 0.38%. The move shows up first in private investment, then in government debt and the trade balance.
For the lead economy, China, the financial backdrop looks like this. On the government curve, 30-year bond prices rally 2.08% by Q8, and unused tenors stay in the background rather than getting a sentence each; the home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.87% in Q20). Treat those as the financial backdrop, not as extra shocks, unless they appear in the active treatment.
Read GDP as percent of baseline GDP: −0.52 is minus half a percent, never −52%. A 200 basis-point move is 2.00 percentage points on the policy rate. CPI over three years is the sum of twelve quarterly impulses, not an annualised rate. A rising real exchange rate is a real depreciation — a weaker, more competitive home currency.
The remaining economies are smaller spillovers, written in the same order in the chapters that follow. Each chapter is a desk note, not a catalog of every series. This material is a model-based summary and is not financial advice.
27,000 numbers (30 countries × 45 series × Q1–Q20) · impulse responses · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on China is a large drop in GDP of 0.51% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 1.07% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is +0.66 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Government debt falls 4.59% by Q20; private investment falls 1.43% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) softens to -0.45% in Q1; household consumption falls 0.38% by Q4; related moves also show up in government spending.
Labour. Real wages fall 0.59% by Q20; employment falls 0.44% by Q17; unemployment rises by +0.11 percentage points in Q10.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 0.30% by Q1; CPI inflation rises 0.09 percentage points by Q1; domestic inflation rises 0.07 percentage points by Q1.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices rally 2.08% by Q8; 10-year bond prices rally 1.63% by Q14; benchmark bond prices rally 1.05% by Q20; 5-year bond prices rally 1.01% by Q20; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, 2-year government yields, 5-year government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.87% in Q20); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.23% in Q20); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.17% in Q20.
Equities and risk. Equity prices fall 1.07% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 1.00% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.68% by Q20; bank equity falls 0.22% by Q20; bank credit supply falls 0.17% by Q20.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 0.30% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.16% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.11% by Q20.
By Q20, GDP is still -0.36% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on the United States is a large drop in GDP of 0.33% by Q17. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 1.10% by Q16. The three-year CPI impulse is +1.19 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 1.34% by Q11; government debt falls 0.80% by Q10; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.26% in Q1; household consumption falls 0.22% by Q18; government spending stays close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages rise 0.49% by Q17; employment falls 0.38% by Q20; unemployment rises by +0.23 percentage points in Q20.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 0.20% by Q17; CPI inflation rises 0.14 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation rises 0.10 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices cheapen 3.37% by Q6; 5-year bond prices cheapen 1.40% by Q1; 10-year bond prices cheapen 1.02% by Q1; 2-year bond prices cheapen 0.89% by Q3; related moves also show up in 30-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.74% in Q20); the real exchange rate shows a real appreciation (a stronger home currency), peaking at -0.70% in Q20.
Equities and risk. Equity prices fall 1.10% by Q16; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 0.94% by Q11; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.41% by Q20; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 0.26% by Q17; manufacturing output rises 0.16% by Q20; the capital stock falls 0.11% by Q20.
By Q20, GDP is still -0.32% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Canada is a moderate rise in GDP of 0.19% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.48% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.50% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.25% in Q1; household consumption rises 0.11% by Q3; government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment rises 0.17% by Q7; real wages rise 0.16% by Q20; unemployment eases by -0.09 percentage points in Q7.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost rises 0.11% by Q1; CPI inflation, domestic inflation stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.70% by Q2; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.41% by Q4; benchmark bond prices cheapen 0.37% by Q8; 5-year bond prices cheapen 0.23% by Q4; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.76% in Q18); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.45% in Q17); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.09% in Q11.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.48% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.35% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices rise 0.15% by Q20; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output rises 0.13% by Q1; manufacturing output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.07% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Mexico is a moderate rise in GDP of 0.19% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.34% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.52% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.26% in Q1; government debt rises 0.24% by Q20; household consumption rises 0.11% by Q4; government spending stays close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages rise 0.26% by Q20; employment rises 0.15% by Q11; unemployment stays close to baseline.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost rises 0.11% by Q1; CPI inflation, domestic inflation stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.36% by Q3; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.22% by Q20; 5-year bond prices cheapen 0.12% by Q20; benchmark bond prices cheapen 0.10% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.78% in Q19); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.40% in Q17); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.09% in Q13.
Equities and risk. Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.36% by Q1; equity prices rise 0.34% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices rise 0.21% by Q17; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output rises 0.11% by Q1; manufacturing output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.09% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Malaysia is a moderate rise in GDP of 0.14% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.38% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.39% by Q1; government debt rises 0.25% by Q20; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.20% in Q1; household consumption rises 0.10% by Q3; government spending stays close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages rise 0.19% by Q20; employment rises 0.12% by Q11; unemployment stays close to baseline.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost rises 0.09% by Q1; CPI inflation, domestic inflation stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.42% by Q3; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.25% by Q14; 5-year bond prices cheapen 0.14% by Q20; benchmark bond prices cheapen 0.12% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.70% in Q19); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.08% in Q13); the real exchange rate stays close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.38% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.27% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices rise 0.19% by Q20; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output rises 0.08% by Q1; manufacturing output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.08% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Thailand is a moderate rise in GDP of 0.12% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.31% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.34% by Q1; government debt rises 0.19% by Q20; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.18% in Q1; household consumption, government spending stay close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages rise 0.17% by Q20; employment rises 0.11% by Q10; unemployment stays close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.41% by Q4; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.26% by Q18; 5-year bond prices cheapen 0.15% by Q20; benchmark bond prices cheapen 0.12% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.66% in Q20); the real exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stay close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.31% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.24% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices rise 0.17% by Q20; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.08% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on South Korea is a moderate rise in GDP of 0.11% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.28% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.30% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.18% in Q3; household consumption, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages rise 0.15% by Q20; employment rises 0.09% by Q11; unemployment stays close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.35% by Q2; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.23% by Q8; benchmark bond prices cheapen 0.14% by Q20; 5-year bond prices cheapen 0.13% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.60% in Q20); the real exchange rate shows a real appreciation (a stronger home currency), peaking at -0.10% in Q20; the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stays close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.28% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.21% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices rise 0.12% by Q20; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.06% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Chile is only a small rise in GDP of 0.10% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.23% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.28% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.13% in Q1; government debt rises 0.09% by Q20; household consumption, government spending stay close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages rise 0.14% by Q20; employment rises 0.09% by Q10; unemployment stays close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.23% by Q10; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.16% by Q20; 5-year bond prices cheapen 0.09% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.84% in Q18); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.27% in Q13); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.18% in Q8.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.23% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.19% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices rise 0.12% by Q20; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.06% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Saudi Arabia is only a small drop in GDP of 0.10% by Q16. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 0.43% by Q15. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.14 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 0.87% by Q8; government debt falls 0.15% by Q20; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) softens to -0.10% in Q17; household consumption, government spending stay close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages fall 0.13% by Q20; employment falls 0.10% by Q20; unemployment stays close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices cheapen 2.56% by Q6; 5-year bond prices cheapen 1.40% by Q1; 10-year bond prices cheapen 1.02% by Q1; 2-year bond prices cheapen 0.89% by Q3; related moves also show up in 30-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real appreciation (a stronger home currency), peaking at -0.38% in Q15; the home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.35% in Q20); the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.30% in Q15).
Equities and risk. Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 0.61% by Q8; equity prices fall 0.43% by Q15; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.18% by Q20; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output rises 0.11% by Q15; services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still -0.08% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Switzerland is only a small rise in GDP of 0.09% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.36% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.25% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.11% in Q1; household consumption, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.26% by Q5; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.16% by Q20; benchmark bond prices cheapen 0.11% by Q20; 5-year bond prices cheapen 0.09% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.65% in Q20); the real exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stay close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.36% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.18% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices rise 0.10% by Q20; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.06% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on South Africa is only a small rise in GDP of 0.07% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.29% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.21% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.10% in Q1; household consumption, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages rise 0.11% by Q20; employment, unemployment stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.14% by Q14; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.10% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.82% in Q19); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.19% in Q11); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.14% in Q9.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.29% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.15% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices rise 0.10% by Q20; bank credit is close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.05% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Japan is only a small rise in GDP of 0.06% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.18% by Q2.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.18% by Q2; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.11% in Q5; household consumption, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. The rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.63% in Q20); the real exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stay close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.18% by Q2; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.13% by Q2; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.04% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Colombia is only a small rise in GDP of 0.04% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.13% by Q3; household consumption, the trade balance, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.11% by Q19; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.09% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.82% in Q19); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.28% in Q16); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.13% in Q16.
Equities and risk. Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.09% by Q3; equity prices, the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.02% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Italy is only a small rise in GDP of 0.04% by Q2. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.12% by Q3; household consumption, the trade balance, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. The rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.68% in Q20); the real exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stay close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.09% by Q3; equity prices, the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.03% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Australia is only a small rise in GDP of 0.04% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.10% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.11% by Q1; household consumption, the trade balance, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.19% by Q7; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.12% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+1.07% in Q17); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.49% in Q11); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.43% in Q9.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.10% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility), Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output falls 0.12% by Q9; services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.02% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Germany is only a small rise in GDP of 0.04% by Q2. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.08% by Q2.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.12% by Q2; household consumption, the trade balance, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. The rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.68% in Q20); the real exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stay close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) rises 0.08% by Q2; equity prices rise 0.08% by Q2; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility) stays close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.03% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Sweden is only a small rise in GDP of 0.04% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.11% by Q1.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.11% by Q2; household consumption, the trade balance, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. The rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.76% in Q20); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.08% in Q12); the real exchange rate stays close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.11% by Q1; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility), Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.03% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Brazil is only a small rise in GDP of 0.03% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.11% by Q4; household consumption, the trade balance, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.09% by Q17; 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.08% by Q16; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.79% in Q19); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.21% in Q15); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.10% in Q15.
Equities and risk. Equity prices, the VIX (global equity-implied volatility), Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.02% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on India is only a small rise in GDP of 0.03% by Q16. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities firm 0.09% by Q15.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.11% by Q10; household consumption, the trade balance, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 0.12% by Q5; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.10% by Q18; 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.09% by Q17; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.71% in Q20); the real exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stay close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices rise 0.09% by Q15; the VIX (global equity-implied volatility), Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.03% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on the United Kingdom is only a small rise in GDP of 0.03% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.09% by Q1; household consumption, the trade balance, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. The rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.69% in Q20); the real exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stay close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices, the VIX (global equity-implied volatility), Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q9 (Q20 is still +0.01%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Argentina is a negligible rise in GDP of 0.03% by Q15. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. This has almost no impact on Argentina.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Norway is only a small drop in GDP of 0.03% by Q15. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast.
Demand and trade. Household consumption, private investment, the trade balance, government spending stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 0.12% by Q16; 10-year bond prices rally 0.08% by Q1; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.89% in Q20); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.23% in Q17); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.19% in Q17.
Equities and risk. Equity prices, the VIX (global equity-implied volatility), Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still -0.02% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Turkey is a negligible rise in GDP of 0.03% by Q15. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. This has almost no impact on Turkey.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on France is only a small rise in GDP of 0.03% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast.
Demand and trade. Household consumption, private investment, the trade balance, government spending stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. The rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.69% in Q20); the real exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stay close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices, the VIX (global equity-implied volatility), Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.02% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Indonesia is only a small rise in GDP of 0.03% by Q18. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast.
Demand and trade. Private investment rises 0.09% by Q5; household consumption, the trade balance, government spending, government debt stay close to baseline.
Labour. Employment, unemployment, real wages stay close to baseline.
Prices. CPI inflation, domestic inflation, firms' marginal cost stay close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices cheapen 0.10% by Q19; 10-year bond prices cheapen 0.09% by Q20; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.74% in Q20); the real exchange rate, the nominal effective exchange rate (increase = trade-weighted appreciation) stay close to baseline.
Equities and risk. Equity prices, the VIX (global equity-implied volatility), Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) stay close to baseline.
Housing and credit. House prices and bank credit are close to unchanged.
Commodities. Other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Manufacturing output, services output, the capital stock stay close to baseline.
By Q20, GDP is still +0.03% from baseline.
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Nigeria is a negligible rise in GDP of 0.02% by Q18. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.06 percentage points. This has almost no impact on Nigeria.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Russia is a negligible drop in GDP of 0.02% by Q9. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. This has almost no impact on Russia.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on the Netherlands is a negligible rise in GDP of 0.02% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. This has almost no impact on the Netherlands.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Spain is a negligible rise in GDP of 0.02% by Q2. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. This has almost no impact on Spain.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of 25% US–China tariffs each way on Poland is a negligible rise in GDP of 0.01% by Q20. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. This has almost no impact on Poland.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
