v6 · IRF · evaluation
VIX at 80. Every path is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast and not financial advice.
This note traces the model response to VIX at 80. Every path is an impulse response versus an unchanged baseline — not a forecast of what will happen in the world and not a reading of market data. The chapters that follow are already sorted by the size of the GDP response.
Netherlands takes the largest GDP move on this path. GDP contracts by 2.26% versus baseline by Q1 — a first-order GDP response. Equities soften 6.31%, and the three-year CPI impulse is -0.30 percentage points. The move shows up first in private investment, then in household consumption and government spending. That is the main adjustment: a change in financial conditions and real income, then the usual lag into activity and prices. It is the conditional elasticity to the shock that was switched on, not a prediction that this path will be realised.
Spillovers are not a carbon copy of that first path. Saudi Arabia contracts by 2.26% versus baseline by Q1 — a first-order GDP response. Equities soften 8.98%, and the three-year CPI impulse is -0.58 percentage points. The move shows up first in private investment, then in household consumption and government debt. Malaysia contracts by 2.25% versus baseline by Q1 — a first-order GDP response. Equities soften 6.03%, and the three-year CPI impulse is -0.16 percentage points. The move shows up first in private investment, then in household consumption and government debt. Norway contracts by 2.22% versus baseline by Q1 — a first-order GDP response. Equities soften 4.83%, and the three-year CPI impulse is -0.26 percentage points. The move shows up first in private investment, then in household consumption and the trade balance. The contrast is the point: the largest spillover is not a scaled copy of the first economy.
Mexico contracts by 2.18% versus baseline by Q1 — a first-order GDP response. Equities soften 3.86%, and the three-year CPI impulse is -0.45 percentage points. The move shows up first in private investment, then in household consumption and government debt.
For the lead economy, Netherlands, the financial backdrop looks like this. On the government curve, benchmark bond prices rally 1.43% by Q5, and unused tenors stay in the background rather than getting a sentence each; the home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.51% in Q16); global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15). Treat those as the financial backdrop, not as extra shocks, unless they appear in the active treatment.
Read GDP as percent of baseline GDP: −0.52 is minus half a percent, never −52%. A 200 basis-point move is 2.00 percentage points on the policy rate. CPI over three years is the sum of twelve quarterly impulses, not an annualised rate. A rising real exchange rate is a real depreciation — a weaker, more competitive home currency.
The remaining economies are smaller spillovers, written in the same order in the chapters that follow. Each chapter is a desk note, not a catalog of every series. This material is a model-based summary and is not financial advice.
27,000 numbers (30 countries × 45 series × Q1–Q20) · impulse responses · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on the Netherlands is a large drop in GDP of 2.26% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 6.31% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.30 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 11.44% by Q1; household consumption falls 3.01% by Q1; government spending rises 0.47% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.31% in Q1; related moves also show up in government debt.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.25% by Q20; employment falls 0.94% by Q7; unemployment rises by +0.75 percentage points in Q6.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.35% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.06 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.43% by Q5; 10-year bond prices rally 0.58% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.54% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.50% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.51% in Q16); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.26% in Q7; the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.18% in Q17).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 6.31% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 4.36% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 1.18% by Q13; bank equity falls 0.57% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.45% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.69% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.43% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.20% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q12 (Q20 is still -0.33%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Saudi Arabia is a large drop in GDP of 2.26% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 8.98% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.58 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 11.06% by Q1; household consumption falls 3.02% by Q1; government debt falls 2.14% by Q20; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) softens to -0.79% in Q3; related moves also show up in government spending.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.68% by Q20; employment falls 1.20% by Q5; unemployment rises by +0.49 percentage points in Q4.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.36% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.11 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 3.80% by Q5; 5-year bond prices rally 1.69% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 1.61% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 1.52% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.49% in Q13; the home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.28% in Q20); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.08% in Q9).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 8.98% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 4.10% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 1.30% by Q10; bank equity falls 0.35% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.30% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 0.99% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.31% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.17% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q12 (Q20 is still -0.32%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Malaysia is a large drop in GDP of 2.25% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 6.03% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.16 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 11.26% by Q1; household consumption falls 3.19% by Q1; government debt falls 1.54% by Q12; government spending rises 0.34% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.42% by Q20; employment falls 1.02% by Q5; unemployment rises by +0.28 percentage points in Q4.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.35% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.06 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.61% by Q5; 30-year bond prices rally 1.41% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 1.39% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 1.08% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.57% in Q1); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.54% in Q4; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.41% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 6.03% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 4.24% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 1.32% by Q10; bank equity falls 0.34% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.27% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.29% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.67% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.15% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q10 (Q20 is still -0.23%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Norway is a large drop in GDP of 2.22% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 4.83% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.26 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 11.07% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.97% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) softens to -0.44% in Q3; government debt rises 0.30% by Q11; related moves also show up in government spending.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.22% by Q20; employment falls 1.01% by Q6; unemployment rises by +0.78 percentage points in Q6.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.33% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.06 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 3.89% by Q6; 30-year bond prices rally 2.54% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 2.47% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 1.93% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+1.62% in Q2); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +1.62% in Q3; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-1.46% in Q3).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 4.83% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 4.11% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 1.00% by Q11; bank equity falls 0.46% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.36% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.27% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.75% by Q2; the capital stock falls 0.14% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q11 (Q20 is still -0.24%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Mexico is a large drop in GDP of 2.18% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.86% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.45 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 11.02% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.95% by Q1; government debt falls 1.20% by Q9; government spending rises 0.34% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.35% by Q18; employment falls 0.87% by Q6; unemployment rises by +0.11 percentage points in Q3.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.30% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.12 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 2.06% by Q4; 10-year bond prices rally 0.99% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.97% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.81% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+1.14% in Q2); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +1.11% in Q3; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-1.06% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 4.08% by Q1; equity prices fall 3.86% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 1.09% by Q8; bank equity falls 0.30% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.29% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.32% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.74% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.13% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q9 (Q20 is still -0.15%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Canada is a large drop in GDP of 2.17% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 5.58% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.12 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.86% by Q1; household consumption falls 3.05% by Q1; government spending rises 0.38% by Q1; government debt falls 0.20% by Q10; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Employment falls 1.21% by Q4; real wages fall 1.10% by Q20; unemployment rises by +0.72 percentage points in Q5.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.30% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.06 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation stays close to baseline.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 3.86% by Q4; 30-year bond prices rally 2.12% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 2.07% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 1.69% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +1.71% in Q3; the home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+1.70% in Q2); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-1.61% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 5.58% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.96% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.88% by Q10; bank equity falls 0.39% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.31% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.51% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.75% by Q2; the capital stock falls 0.12% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q10 (Q20 is still -0.16%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Thailand is a large drop in GDP of 2.14% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 5.31% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.29 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.92% by Q1; household consumption falls 3.03% by Q1; government debt falls 1.24% by Q10; government spending rises 0.36% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.34% by Q18; employment falls 1.00% by Q4; unemployment rises by +0.11 percentage points in Q3.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.28% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.12 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.93% by Q4; 10-year bond prices rally 1.38% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 1.37% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 1.14% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.46% in Q13; the home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.28% in Q18); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.08% in Q7).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 5.31% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 4.00% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 1.15% by Q9; bank equity falls 0.28% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.23% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.18% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.59% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.13% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q10 (Q20 is still -0.17%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Switzerland is a large drop in GDP of 2.09% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 8.34% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.20 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.90% by Q1; household consumption falls 3.11% by Q1; government debt falls 0.49% by Q10; government spending rises 0.42% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Employment falls 1.06% by Q4; real wages fall 0.76% by Q20; unemployment rises by +0.71 percentage points in Q6.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.25% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.12 percentage points by Q1; domestic inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q1.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.92% by Q7; 30-year bond prices rally 1.31% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 1.30% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.96% by Q2; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.51% in Q1); the home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.51% in Q10); the real exchange rate shows a real appreciation (a stronger home currency), peaking at -0.45% in Q1.
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 8.34% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.99% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 1.03% by Q13; bank equity falls 0.52% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.41% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.66% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.27% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.17% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q12 (Q20 is still -0.28%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Poland is a large drop in GDP of 2.08% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.70% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.39 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.85% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.82% by Q1; government spending rises 0.42% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.37% in Q1; government debt stays close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.30% by Q20; employment falls 0.91% by Q4; unemployment rises by +0.40 percentage points in Q4.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.25% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.10 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.07 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.28% by Q4; 10-year bond prices rally 0.68% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.65% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.57% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.50% in Q17); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.23% in Q14; the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.19% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.95% by Q1; equity prices fall 3.70% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.88% by Q11; bank equity falls 0.28% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.25% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.30% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.48% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.15% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q10 (Q20 is still -0.20%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Russia is a large drop in GDP of 2.03% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.56% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.79 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.57% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.83% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) softens to -0.61% in Q3; government debt falls 0.39% by Q9; related moves also show up in government spending.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.62% by Q16; employment falls 0.86% by Q5; unemployment rises by +0.40 percentage points in Q4.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.21% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.16 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.11 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.73% by Q4; 10-year bond prices rally 1.14% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 1.13% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 1.05% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.78% in Q2); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.75% in Q3; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.71% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.76% by Q1; equity prices fall 3.56% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.98% by Q8; bank equity falls 0.26% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.23% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.11% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.52% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.10% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q9 (Q20 is still -0.04%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Chile is a large drop in GDP of 2.02% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 4.59% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.46 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.63% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.93% by Q1; government debt falls 0.73% by Q8; government spending rises 0.28% by Q1; the trade balance stays close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.26% by Q17; employment falls 0.93% by Q4; unemployment rises by +0.36 percentage points in Q4.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.21% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.12 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.74% by Q4; 10-year bond prices rally 0.90% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.87% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.78% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.97% in Q2); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.94% in Q3; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.73% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 4.59% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.80% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.97% by Q8; bank equity falls 0.27% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.22% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.22% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.53% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.12% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q9 (Q20 is still -0.12%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Germany is a large drop in GDP of 2.02% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 4.01% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.45 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.75% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.85% by Q1; government spending rises 0.45% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.41% in Q1; related moves also show up in government debt.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.22% by Q20; employment falls 0.90% by Q6; unemployment rises by +0.67 percentage points in Q6.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.21% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.10 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.07 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.43% by Q5; 10-year bond prices rally 0.58% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.54% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.50% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.54% in Q14); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.19% in Q16; the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.19% in Q5).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 4.01% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.88% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.96% by Q12; bank equity falls 0.49% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.39% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.38% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.48% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.17% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q12 (Q20 is still -0.24%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Sweden is a large drop in GDP of 2.01% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 6.01% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.36 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.71% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.89% by Q1; government spending rises 0.42% by Q1; government debt rises 0.39% by Q10; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.20% by Q20; employment falls 0.81% by Q7; unemployment rises by +0.65 percentage points in Q5.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.21% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.09 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.06 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.43% by Q5; 10-year bond prices rally 0.65% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.62% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.54% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.50% in Q17); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.33% in Q3; the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.14% in Q20).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 6.01% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.86% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.89% by Q12; bank equity falls 0.42% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.33% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.44% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.45% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.16% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q11 (Q20 is still -0.23%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on South Korea is a large drop in GDP of 1.98% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 4.88% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.25 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.40% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.91% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.52% in Q2; government debt falls 0.46% by Q10; related moves also show up in government spending.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.13% by Q19; employment falls 0.80% by Q5; unemployment rises by +0.37 percentage points in Q4.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.19% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.09 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.06 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 2.54% by Q4; 10-year bond prices rally 1.20% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 1.16% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 1.05% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.53% in Q2); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.41% in Q15; the home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.37% in Q4).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 4.88% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.64% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.74% by Q9; bank equity falls 0.32% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.26% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.20% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.49% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.10% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q9 (Q20 is still -0.09%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on France is a large drop in GDP of 1.98% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 4.54% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.42 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.66% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.82% by Q1; government debt rises 0.67% by Q15; government spending rises 0.47% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 0.94% by Q20; employment falls 0.82% by Q7; unemployment rises by +0.66 percentage points in Q6.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.19% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.09 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.07 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.43% by Q5; 10-year bond prices rally 0.58% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.54% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.50% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.54% in Q14); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.19% in Q15; the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.12% in Q11).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 4.54% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.82% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.90% by Q12; bank equity falls 0.49% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.39% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.53% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.31% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.17% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q11 (Q20 is still -0.23%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Spain is a large drop in GDP of 1.94% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.86% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.39 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.54% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.82% by Q1; government spending rises 0.42% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.30% in Q1; government debt stays close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages fall 0.86% by Q20; employment falls 0.81% by Q6; unemployment rises by +0.41 percentage points in Q5.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.16% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.09 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.06 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.43% by Q5; 10-year bond prices rally 0.58% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.54% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.50% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.55% in Q14); the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.22% in Q4); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.18% in Q16.
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 3.86% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.73% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.80% by Q11; bank equity falls 0.34% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.27% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.43% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.32% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.14% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q10 (Q20 is still -0.19%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Australia is a large drop in GDP of 1.94% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 4.79% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.32 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.29% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.93% by Q1; government debt falls 0.39% by Q10; government spending rises 0.33% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.12% by Q20; employment falls 1.04% by Q4; unemployment rises by +0.62 percentage points in Q5.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.16% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.09 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.06 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 3.53% by Q5; 10-year bond prices rally 1.80% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 1.74% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 1.58% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+2.17% in Q2); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +2.15% in Q3; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-2.09% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 4.79% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.57% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.72% by Q9; bank equity falls 0.36% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.29% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.39% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.82% by Q2; the capital stock falls 0.09% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q9 (Q20 is still -0.09%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Colombia is a large drop in GDP of 1.93% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.42% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.63 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.31% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.84% by Q1; government debt falls 0.96% by Q9; government spending rises 0.30% by Q1; the trade balance stays close to baseline.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.24% by Q15; employment falls 0.80% by Q5; unemployment rises by +0.10 percentage points in Q3.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.16% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.15 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.11 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.87% by Q4; 10-year bond prices rally 0.87% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.82% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.81% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+1.16% in Q2); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +1.14% in Q3; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.93% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.58% by Q1; equity prices fall 3.42% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.86% by Q8; bank equity falls 0.23% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.20% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.17% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.59% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.09% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q8 (Q20 is still -0.08%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on South Africa is a large drop in GDP of 1.92% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 7.61% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.44 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.34% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.82% by Q1; government debt falls 0.59% by Q10; government spending rises 0.32% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.17% by Q16; employment falls 0.85% by Q4; unemployment rises by +0.23 percentage points in Q4.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.15% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.11 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.63% by Q4; 10-year bond prices rally 0.65% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.60% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.59% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.78% in Q2); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.74% in Q3; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.65% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 7.61% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.60% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.89% by Q8; bank equity falls 0.29% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.25% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.22% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.47% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.11% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q8 (Q20 is still -0.11%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Nigeria is a large drop in GDP of 1.91% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 2.94% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.94 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.09% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.80% by Q1; government debt falls 1.71% by Q9; government spending rises 0.25% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.30% by Q11; employment falls 0.59% by Q5; unemployment rises by +0.08 percentage points in Q3.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.15% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.25 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.17 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.86% by Q4; 2-year bond prices rally 1.05% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 0.80% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.79% by Q1; related moves also show up in 30-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.50% in Q7; the home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.47% in Q1); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.24% in Q3).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.42% by Q1; equity prices fall 2.94% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.78% by Q6; bank credit supply falls 0.36% by Q7; bank equity falls 0.20% by Q7; lending spreads rise 0.05 percentage points by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 0.95% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.25% by Q1; the capital stock stays close to baseline.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q7 (Q20 is still +0.03%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Italy is a large drop in GDP of 1.88% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.37% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.39 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.38% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.74% by Q1; government spending rises 0.41% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.31% in Q2; related moves also show up in government debt.
Labour. Employment falls 0.78% by Q6; real wages fall 0.73% by Q20; unemployment rises by +0.37 percentage points in Q4.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.13% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.10 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.07 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.42% by Q5; 10-year bond prices rally 0.58% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.54% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.50% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.56% in Q13); the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.24% in Q3); the real exchange rate shows a real appreciation (a stronger home currency), peaking at -0.20% in Q2.
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.62% by Q1; equity prices fall 3.37% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.75% by Q11; bank equity falls 0.36% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.30% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.37% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.32% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.14% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q10 (Q20 is still -0.17%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Turkey is a large drop in GDP of 1.87% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.05% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.56 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.00% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.79% by Q1; government debt falls 0.60% by Q8; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.36% in Q2; related moves also show up in government spending.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.14% by Q13; employment falls 0.66% by Q4; unemployment rises by +0.22 percentage points in Q3.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.12% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.16 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.11 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 1.92% by Q3; 2-year bond prices rally 0.80% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 0.64% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.62% by Q1; related moves also show up in the local policy rate, 3-month government yields, 5-year bond prices; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.41% in Q20); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.41% in Q10; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.08% in Q7).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.36% by Q1; equity prices fall 3.05% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.76% by Q6; bank equity falls 0.22% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.19% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.13% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.47% by Q1; the capital stock stays close to baseline.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q7 (Q20 is still -0.01%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Brazil is a large drop in GDP of 1.87% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.63% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.59 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 9.99% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.76% by Q1; government spending rises 0.35% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) softens to -0.26% in Q3; related moves also show up in government debt.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.11% by Q14; employment falls 0.71% by Q5; unemployment rises by +0.21 percentage points in Q3.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.12% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.15 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.10 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 3.16% by Q4; 2-year bond prices rally 1.08% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.88% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 0.88% by Q1; related moves also show up in 30-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.85% in Q4; the home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.84% in Q2); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.64% in Q3).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 3.63% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.35% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.73% by Q6; bank equity falls 0.26% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.22% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.24% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.51% by Q1; the capital stock stays close to baseline.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q7 (Q20 is still +0.05%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Indonesia is a large drop in GDP of 1.87% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.69% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.79 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.16% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.82% by Q1; government debt falls 1.06% by Q8; government spending rises 0.30% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.27% by Q14; employment falls 0.60% by Q6; unemployment rises by +0.09 percentage points in Q3.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.12% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.19 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.13 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 2.20% by Q4; 10-year bond prices rally 0.93% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.92% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 0.86% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.46% in Q9; the home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.44% in Q1); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.18% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 3.69% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.47% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.81% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.22% by Q7; bank equity falls 0.22% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 0.93% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.48% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.08% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q8 (Q20 is still -0.04%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on the United Kingdom is a large drop in GDP of 1.87% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 4.67% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.70 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.40% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.88% by Q1; government spending rises 0.39% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.18% in Q2; related moves also show up in government debt.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.05% by Q20; employment falls 1.04% by Q4; unemployment rises by +0.63 percentage points in Q6.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.12% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.12 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.09 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. 30-year bond prices rally 0.85% by Q1; benchmark bond prices rally 0.81% by Q9; 10-year bond prices rally 0.71% by Q3; 5-year bond prices rally 0.46% by Q4; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.62% in Q13); the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.34% in Q8); the real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.15% in Q20.
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 4.67% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.64% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.82% by Q12; bank equity falls 0.41% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.33% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.48% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.24% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.16% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q11 (Q20 is still -0.21%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Argentina is a large drop in GDP of 1.84% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 2.70% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.56 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 9.63% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.66% by Q1; government debt falls 0.39% by Q6; government spending rises 0.33% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.17% by Q9; employment rises 0.80% by Q19; unemployment eases by -0.20 percentage points in Q16.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.10% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.23 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.16 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 2.21% by Q3; 5-year bond prices cheapen 1.42% by Q9; 10-year bond prices cheapen 1.26% by Q9; 2-year bond prices rally 1.05% by Q1; related moves also show up in the local policy rate, 3-month government yields, 30-year bond prices; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.55% in Q7; the home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.45% in Q1); the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.13% in Q4).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.10% by Q1; equity prices fall 2.70% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.61% by Q5; bank credit supply falls 0.38% by Q7; bank equity falls 0.18% by Q7; lending spreads rise 0.11 percentage points by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.05% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.39% by Q1; the capital stock stays close to baseline.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q5 (Q20 is still +0.36%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on the United States is a large drop in GDP of 1.82% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 5.73% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.59 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 9.83% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.89% by Q1; government spending rises 0.35% by Q1; government debt falls 0.22% by Q3; the trade balance stays close to baseline.
Labour. Employment falls 1.07% by Q4; real wages fall 0.96% by Q17; unemployment rises by +0.59 percentage points in Q5.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.09% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.13 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.09 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 5.00% by Q5; 5-year bond prices rally 1.69% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 1.61% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 1.52% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.72% in Q15; the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.54% in Q1).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 5.73% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.24% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.58% by Q8; bank equity falls 0.32% by Q8; bank credit supply falls 0.26% by Q8.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.40% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.22% by Q1; the capital stock stays close to baseline.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q9 (Q20 is still +0.05%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on India is a large drop in GDP of 1.81% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 4.79% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.80 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 9.83% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.79% by Q1; government debt falls 0.94% by Q8; government spending rises 0.30% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.13% by Q13; employment falls 0.51% by Q6; unemployment rises by +0.07 percentage points in Q3.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.08% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.22 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.15 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 3.74% by Q4; 2-year bond prices rally 1.08% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 0.89% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 0.86% by Q1; related moves also show up in 30-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields; the rest of the government curve moves less.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.41% in Q12; the home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.40% in Q20); the NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.28% in Q2).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 4.79% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.24% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.70% by Q6; bank equity falls 0.24% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.21% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.00% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.38% by Q1; the capital stock stays close to baseline.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q7 (Q20 is still +0.02%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on China is a large drop in GDP of 1.79% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 3.70% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.73 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 9.87% by Q1; household consumption falls 3.03% by Q1; government debt falls 0.89% by Q12; government spending rises 0.31% by Q1; related moves also show up in the trade balance.
Labour. Real wages fall 1.28% by Q15; employment falls 0.58% by Q6; unemployment rises by +0.21 percentage points in Q4.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.07% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.17 percentage points by Q2; domestic inflation falls 0.12 percentage points by Q2.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 3.18% by Q7; 10-year bond prices rally 1.98% by Q1; 5-year bond prices rally 1.92% by Q1; 30-year bond prices rally 1.79% by Q1; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices, the local policy rate, 3-month government yields.
Exchange rates. The real exchange rate shows a real depreciation (a weaker, more competitive home currency), peaking at +0.61% in Q19; the NEER prints a trade-weighted depreciation (-0.26% in Q20); the home currency is weaker versus the dollar (+0.24% in Q1).
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 3.70% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.27% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.76% by Q8; bank equity falls 0.27% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.21% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.04% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.52% by Q1; the capital stock stays close to baseline.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q9 (Q20 is still +0.03%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
The main impact of VIX at 80 on Japan is a large drop in GDP of 1.78% by Q1. This is a model impulse response versus baseline, not a forecast. Equities soften 4.97% by Q1. The three-year CPI impulse is -0.37 percentage points.
Demand and trade. Private investment falls 10.15% by Q1; household consumption falls 2.91% by Q1; government spending rises 0.35% by Q1; the trade balance (net exports — this model does not split imports from exports) improves to +0.33% in Q2; related moves also show up in government debt.
Labour. Employment falls 0.87% by Q4; unemployment rises by +0.58 percentage points in Q5; real wages fall 0.36% by Q20.
Prices. Firms' marginal cost falls 1.06% by Q1; CPI inflation falls 0.11 percentage points by Q1; domestic inflation falls 0.08 percentage points by Q1.
Policy rates and the government curve. Benchmark bond prices rally 0.33% by Q7; 30-year bond prices rally 0.22% by Q1; 10-year bond prices rally 0.20% by Q2; 5-year bond prices rally 0.15% by Q2; related moves also show up in 2-year bond prices; the rest of the government curve barely moves.
Exchange rates. The NEER prints a trade-weighted appreciation (+0.96% in Q3); the home currency is stronger versus the dollar (-0.81% in Q9); the real exchange rate shows a real appreciation (a stronger home currency), peaking at -0.66% in Q2.
Equities and risk. Global VIX moves to 80.0 in Q1 (baseline 15); equity prices fall 4.97% by Q1; Tobin's Q (the value of installed capital) falls 3.46% by Q1.
Housing and credit. House prices fall 0.73% by Q11; bank equity falls 0.42% by Q7; bank credit supply falls 0.33% by Q7.
Commodities. Gold prices move to $5472 in Q1; the gas price moves to $3.78 per mmBtu in Q3; the energy price moves to $77 a barrel in Q2; the food price index moves to 96.3 in Q3; the metals price index moves to 96.8 in Q2; other published commodity prices stay within 3% of their baselines.
Sectors and capital. Services output falls 1.23% by Q1; manufacturing output falls 0.23% by Q1; the capital stock falls 0.15% by Q20.
The GDP response has mostly faded by Q10 (Q20 is still -0.18%).
These figures are model IRFs versus baseline, not forecasts and not financial advice.
global_macro_v64 · contract v6.4 · Q1–Q20 JSON · not financial advice
