Training records · Layer A · contract v6.4
US policy rate -200bp
These are the training records for this simulation — one JSON object per country. This is the same schema as the full 1,000-simulation and 10,000-simulation packs, which will be sold exclusively to one AI lab. A model trains on these rows, not on the prose report.
Each record has record_id, model, question, shock (active spec, units, held_fixed), country, horizon, series (published paths, Q1–Q20), summary, and qa_checks.
Download all 30 records as JSONL · Human-readable report · All ten simulations
Records in this simulation
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_uk · United Kingdom
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_us · United States
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_de · Germany
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_fr · France
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_it · Italy
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_jp · Japan
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_ca · Canada
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_cn · China
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_in · India
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_br · Brazil
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_ru · Russia
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_au · Australia
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_kr · South Korea
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_mx · Mexico
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_id · Indonesia
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_tr · Turkey
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_sa · Saudi Arabia
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_ar · Argentina
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_za · South Africa
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_nl · Netherlands
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_es · Spain
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_pl · Poland
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_se · Sweden
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_th · Thailand
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_my · Malaysia
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_cl · Chile
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_co · Colombia
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_ng · Nigeria
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_no · Norway
- irf_v64_us_cut_200_ch · Switzerland
irf_v64_us_cut_200_uk
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_uk",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "UK",
"name": "United Kingdom"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000766,
0.001044,
0.00171,
0.00279,
0.004265,
0.005979,
0.007798,
0.009695,
0.010868,
0.011305,
0.011005,
0.010139,
0.008906,
0.007474,
0.005979,
0.00453,
0.003197,
0.002022,
0.00102,
0.000202
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000338,
0.000597,
0.000917,
0.001331,
0.001881,
0.002534,
0.003235,
0.003971,
0.004474,
0.004704,
0.004634,
0.00432,
0.003842,
0.00327,
0.00266,
0.002059,
0.001495,
0.000987,
0.00054,
0.000158
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.008747,
-0.01466,
-0.014651,
-0.012165,
-0.009125,
-0.006489,
-0.00467,
-0.003762,
0.000354,
0.005029,
0.008836,
0.011233,
0.012183,
0.011904,
0.010706,
0.00891,
0.006802,
0.004617,
0.002532,
0.00067
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000938,
-0.002591,
-0.004291,
-0.005683,
-0.00665,
-0.007218,
-0.007485,
-0.00757,
-0.007157,
-0.006175,
-0.004739,
-0.003045,
-0.001294,
0.000346,
0.00175,
0.002844,
0.003597,
0.004012,
0.004116,
0.003953
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.095284,
-0.196067,
-0.259335,
-0.298196,
-0.322397,
-0.339458,
-0.3552,
-0.373907,
-0.354535,
-0.312181,
-0.258231,
-0.201013,
-0.146347,
-0.098011,
-0.058154,
-0.027667,
-0.006517,
0.005988,
0.01096,
0.009738
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000101,
0.000259,
0.000514,
0.000902,
0.001453,
0.002178,
0.003076,
0.004143,
0.005282,
0.006398,
0.007402,
0.008232,
0.008853,
0.009253,
0.009441,
0.009437,
0.009268,
0.008967,
0.008564,
0.00809
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.036601,
0.096464,
0.168527,
0.248307,
0.332825,
0.420466,
0.510724,
0.603452,
0.440081,
0.300375,
0.183694,
0.089708,
0.017504,
-0.034582,
-0.068829,
-0.0879,
-0.0946,
-0.091688,
-0.081731,
-0.067016
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014464,
0.035688,
0.062082,
0.092182,
0.124924,
0.159362,
0.194972,
0.231634,
0.178681,
0.131989,
0.091316,
0.056966,
0.029122,
0.007636,
-0.007925,
-0.018188,
-0.023936,
-0.025996,
-0.025208,
-0.022322
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.005303,
-0.006081,
-0.006529,
-0.006585,
-0.006255,
-0.005585,
-0.00464,
-0.003486,
-0.002184,
-0.00084,
0.000434,
0.001541,
0.002415,
0.003024,
0.003359,
0.003437,
0.003289,
0.002956,
0.002486,
0.001924
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002211,
-0.001985,
-0.001704,
-0.001371,
-0.001004,
-0.000625,
-0.000251,
0.000104,
0.000435,
0.000724,
0.000945,
0.001081,
0.001125,
0.001077,
0.000948,
0.000752,
0.000507,
0.000234,
-5e-05,
-0.000328
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001398,
-0.001399,
-0.001352,
-0.001256,
-0.001119,
-0.000953,
-0.000768,
-0.000571,
-0.000368,
-0.000171,
4e-06,
0.000147,
0.00025,
0.000311,
0.000333,
0.000321,
0.000283,
0.000227,
0.000162,
9.5e-05
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2.6e-05,
0.000129,
0.000357,
0.000746,
0.001284,
0.001925,
0.002632,
0.00338,
0.004094,
0.004671,
0.005045,
0.005192,
0.005118,
0.004848,
0.004424,
0.003886,
0.003278,
0.002632,
0.00198
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000975,
-0.003424,
-0.007096,
-0.0115,
-0.016153,
-0.020697,
-0.024918,
-0.028742,
-0.031752,
-0.033538,
-0.033862,
-0.03269,
-0.030161,
-0.026539,
-0.022153,
-0.017348,
-0.012454,
-0.007754,
-0.003477
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.003551,
0.007095,
0.011928,
0.017517,
0.023591,
0.029609,
0.035344,
0.041008,
0.043091,
0.042229,
0.038577,
0.033072,
0.0266,
0.019862,
0.013403,
0.007627,
0.002743,
-0.001148,
-0.004072,
-0.006059
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
1.8e-05,
5.3e-05,
0.000113,
0.0002,
0.000318,
0.000466,
0.000643,
0.000848,
0.001064,
0.001275,
0.001468,
0.001633,
0.001766,
0.001865,
0.001932,
0.001971,
0.001984,
0.001978,
0.001958,
0.001928
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002486,
0.004967,
0.00835,
0.012262,
0.016514,
0.020726,
0.024741,
0.028706,
0.030164,
0.02956,
0.027004,
0.02315,
0.01862,
0.013903,
0.009382,
0.005339,
0.00192,
-0.000804,
-0.002851,
-0.004241
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000158,
-0.000216,
-0.000355,
-0.000581,
-0.000892,
-0.001254,
-0.001639,
-0.002041,
-0.002293,
-0.002393,
-0.002338,
-0.002162,
-0.001907,
-0.001608,
-0.001293,
-0.000986,
-0.000701,
-0.000449,
-0.000232,
-5.4e-05
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
1.1e-05,
3.1e-05,
6.4e-05,
0.00011,
0.000165,
0.000225,
0.000287,
0.000347,
0.000394,
0.000423,
0.000433,
0.000424,
0.000399,
0.000361,
0.000315,
0.000262,
0.000207,
0.000152
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.008617,
-0.017753,
-0.023677,
-0.027652,
-0.030605,
-0.033164,
-0.035749,
-0.03867,
-0.038147,
-0.035404,
-0.031287,
-0.02645,
-0.021412,
-0.016562,
-0.012175,
-0.008422,
-0.005389,
-0.003091,
-0.001494,
-0.000526
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.006123,
-0.010262,
-0.010256,
-0.008515,
-0.006388,
-0.004542,
-0.003269,
-0.002633,
0.000248,
0.00352,
0.006186,
0.007863,
0.008528,
0.008333,
0.007494,
0.006237,
0.004761,
0.003232,
0.001772,
0.000469
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00046,
0.000628,
0.001032,
0.001692,
0.002595,
0.003648,
0.004768,
0.005937,
0.006671,
0.006961,
0.0068,
0.00629,
0.005549,
0.004678,
0.003762,
0.002868,
0.00204,
0.001306,
0.000675,
0.000157
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000119,
-0.000251,
-0.000453,
-0.000772,
-0.00124,
-0.001857,
-0.002601,
-0.003454,
-0.004275,
-0.004958,
-0.005425,
-0.00564,
-0.00561,
-0.005366,
-0.004952,
-0.004416,
-0.003807,
-0.003169,
-0.002535,
-0.001932
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
3e-06,
9e-06,
1.8e-05,
3.3e-05,
5e-05,
7.1e-05,
9.3e-05,
0.000117,
0.000138,
0.000155,
0.000167,
0.000174,
0.000175,
0.000171,
0.000163,
0.000151,
0.000137,
0.000115
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000607,
0.000827,
0.001354,
0.00221,
0.003378,
0.004735,
0.006176,
0.007679,
0.008608,
0.008954,
0.008716,
0.00803,
0.007054,
0.00592,
0.004735,
0.003588,
0.002532,
0.001602,
0.000808,
0.00016
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.028715,
0.058961,
0.077916,
0.08946,
0.096476,
0.101227,
0.105505,
0.110645,
0.104225,
0.090869,
0.074121,
0.05658,
0.040034,
0.025612,
0.013925,
0.005198,
-0.000629,
-0.003807,
-0.004712,
-0.003776
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000234,
-0.000648,
-0.001073,
-0.001421,
-0.001662,
-0.001805,
-0.001871,
-0.001893,
-0.001789,
-0.001544,
-0.001185,
-0.000761,
-0.000323,
8.6e-05,
0.000437,
0.000711,
0.000899,
0.001003,
0.001029,
0.000988
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
8e-06,
2.3e-05,
4.9e-05,
8.6e-05,
0.000132,
0.000186,
0.000246,
0.000307,
0.000363,
0.000409,
0.000441,
0.000458,
0.000461,
0.000451,
0.000428,
0.000397,
0.00036,
0.000303
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000938,
-0.002591,
-0.004291,
-0.005683,
-0.00665,
-0.007218,
-0.007485,
-0.00757,
-0.007157,
-0.006175,
-0.004739,
-0.003045,
-0.001294,
0.000346,
0.00175,
0.002844,
0.003597,
0.004012,
0.004116,
0.003953
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-1e-05,
-1e-06,
2.2e-05,
5.8e-05,
0.000106,
0.000162,
0.000223,
0.000286,
0.00035,
0.00041,
0.000462,
0.000502,
0.000528,
0.000539,
0.000537,
0.000522,
0.000499,
0.000469,
0.000436,
0.000402
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000234,
0.000648,
0.001073,
0.001421,
0.001662,
0.001805,
0.001871,
0.001893,
0.001789,
0.001544,
0.001185,
0.000761,
0.000323,
-8.6e-05,
-0.000437,
-0.000711,
-0.000899,
-0.001003,
-0.001029,
-0.000988
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.010076,
0.011553,
0.012404,
0.012511,
0.011884,
0.010612,
0.008816,
0.006623,
0.004149,
0.001595,
-0.000824,
-0.002927,
-0.004589,
-0.005745,
-0.006382,
-0.00653,
-0.006248,
-0.005617,
-0.004723,
-0.003655
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.009949,
0.008934,
0.00767,
0.006171,
0.004519,
0.002812,
0.001132,
-0.000466,
-0.001959,
-0.003256,
-0.004252,
-0.004866,
-0.005063,
-0.004848,
-0.004265,
-0.003383,
-0.002282,
-0.001051,
0.000227,
0.001477
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.011467,
0.01147,
0.011082,
0.010297,
0.009178,
0.007816,
0.006296,
0.004682,
0.003016,
0.001404,
-3.5e-05,
-0.001204,
-0.002046,
-0.002547,
-0.002727,
-0.002632,
-0.002322,
-0.001865,
-0.00133,
-0.000776
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000172,
1.6e-05,
-0.000388,
-0.001046,
-0.001912,
-0.002922,
-0.004017,
-0.005151,
-0.006297,
-0.007381,
-0.008316,
-0.009036,
-0.009501,
-0.009703,
-0.009658,
-0.009401,
-0.00898,
-0.008446,
-0.007848,
-0.007234
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.029707,
0.083708,
0.126664,
0.152603,
0.168517,
0.179686,
0.190204,
0.203069,
0.198938,
0.174052,
0.137658,
0.096574,
0.05568,
0.018269,
-0.013654,
-0.039111,
-0.057896,
-0.070376,
-0.077291,
-0.0796
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.101628,
-0.21981,
-0.314852,
-0.401989,
-0.492109,
-0.593087,
-0.710493,
-0.847889,
-0.906085,
-0.907103,
-0.86862,
-0.804803,
-0.726818,
-0.643201,
-0.560202,
-0.482125,
-0.411659,
-0.350197,
-0.298122,
-0.255142
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0113,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0488,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2316,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_us
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_us",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "US",
"name": "United States"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.006075,
0.026015,
0.063837,
0.120936,
0.188994,
0.258792,
0.327494,
0.395057,
0.447547,
0.471426,
0.46599,
0.436097,
0.388379,
0.329396,
0.26484,
0.19927,
0.136115,
0.07778,
0.02583
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.007481,
0.019283,
0.038083,
0.066512,
0.106128,
0.153258,
0.202702,
0.252052,
0.233406,
0.256088,
0.278836,
0.287803,
0.280689,
0.259754,
0.228705,
0.191339,
0.150985,
0.110325,
0.071374,
0.035561
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000209,
0.000988,
0.002781,
0.00589,
0.010447,
0.016133,
0.022419,
0.028948,
0.033656,
0.036469,
0.037139,
0.035752,
0.032667,
0.028365,
0.023336,
0.018011,
0.012737,
0.007766,
0.003271,
-0.000646
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.049874,
-0.138539,
-0.255825,
-0.392817,
-0.542057,
-0.698753,
-0.860591,
-1.026397,
-0.746549,
-0.513307,
-0.322449,
-0.170782,
-0.054975,
0.02879,
0.084764,
0.117412,
0.131178,
0.130278,
0.11855,
0.099367
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.006343,
0.023743,
0.055517,
0.103793,
0.169712,
0.253629,
0.355293,
0.473982,
0.55155,
0.594922,
0.610389,
0.60379,
0.580471,
0.54519,
0.502049,
0.454459,
0.405142,
0.356185,
0.309081,
0.26488
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001004,
0.004383,
0.012058,
0.026097,
0.048465,
0.080051,
0.120683,
0.169871,
0.218101,
0.264766,
0.307779,
0.345017,
0.374909,
0.396584,
0.409824,
0.41493,
0.412583,
0.403705,
0.389348,
0.370611
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.328121,
0.911438,
1.683057,
2.584325,
3.566163,
4.597058,
5.661785,
6.752614,
4.911506,
3.377017,
2.121374,
1.123564,
0.361677,
-0.18941,
-0.557656,
-0.772448,
-0.863016,
-0.857094,
-0.779932,
-0.653727
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.015586,
0.06274,
0.163219,
0.327107,
0.556535,
0.823392,
1.097434,
1.369218,
1.498093,
1.593285,
1.610138,
1.545383,
1.41353,
1.234609,
1.028292,
0.811409,
0.597167,
0.395231,
0.212105,
0.05175
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.495607,
-0.582691,
-0.629537,
-0.637865,
-0.610111,
-0.549225,
-0.458282,
-0.340113,
-0.197137,
-0.087421,
-0.006973,
0.048152,
0.081921,
0.098239,
0.100828,
0.093111,
0.078131,
0.058506,
0.03641,
0.013588
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.253129,
-0.246856,
-0.237454,
-0.223512,
-0.203992,
-0.178181,
-0.145567,
-0.105739,
-0.058334,
-0.025473,
-0.004672,
0.00633,
0.009617,
0.007091,
0.000445,
-0.008859,
-0.019596,
-0.030779,
-0.041645,
-0.051633
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.156745,
-0.157227,
-0.155343,
-0.150382,
-0.141858,
-0.129472,
-0.113046,
-0.092459,
-0.067622,
-0.049685,
-0.037492,
-0.029989,
-0.026206,
-0.025254,
-0.026337,
-0.028767,
-0.031967,
-0.03547,
-0.038913,
-0.042031
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.002073,
0.010362,
0.029201,
0.062168,
0.108983,
0.166296,
0.230742,
0.299896,
0.36727,
0.423603,
0.46203,
0.479296,
0.475337,
0.452346,
0.413837,
0.363881,
0.306562,
0.245622,
0.184274
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
7e-05,
0.000454,
0.001647,
0.004429,
0.009787,
0.018774,
0.032386,
0.051511,
0.076588,
0.10752,
0.143659,
0.183903,
0.226835,
0.270883,
0.314465,
0.356103,
0.394504,
0.428615,
0.457642
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.074812,
0.230901,
0.476548,
0.80587,
1.208957,
1.645622,
2.085657,
2.525747,
2.294123,
2.076252,
1.828279,
1.55626,
1.274374,
0.997237,
0.736779,
0.501382,
0.296016,
0.12284,
-0.018189,
-0.128582
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000374,
0.001529,
0.003911,
0.007941,
0.013985,
0.022214,
0.032642,
0.045271,
0.056741,
0.067122,
0.076264,
0.084045,
0.090417,
0.095403,
0.099087,
0.101594,
0.103074,
0.103688,
0.103597,
0.102954
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.052368,
0.161631,
0.333584,
0.564109,
0.84627,
1.151936,
1.45996,
1.768023,
1.605886,
1.453377,
1.279795,
1.089382,
0.892062,
0.698066,
0.515745,
0.350967,
0.207212,
0.085988,
-0.012732,
-0.090007
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.001177,
-0.005037,
-0.01236,
-0.023414,
-0.036588,
-0.050097,
-0.063392,
-0.076465,
-0.086619,
-0.091232,
-0.090171,
-0.084376,
-0.075133,
-0.063712,
-0.051215,
-0.038525,
-0.026304,
-0.015018,
-0.004969
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.000456,
0.002251,
0.006264,
0.013176,
0.022805,
0.034336,
0.04702,
0.060415,
0.073156,
0.083329,
0.089622,
0.091534,
0.089227,
0.0833,
0.074572,
0.063923,
0.052191,
0.040108,
0.028273
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000349,
0.001118,
0.002256,
0.003769,
0.00569,
0.008306,
0.011884,
0.016462,
0.018829,
0.019793,
0.0201,
0.020063,
0.019805,
0.019373,
0.01879,
0.018075,
0.017248,
0.016333,
0.015352,
0.014327
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000147,
0.000692,
0.001947,
0.004123,
0.007313,
0.011293,
0.015693,
0.020263,
0.023559,
0.025528,
0.025997,
0.025026,
0.022867,
0.019855,
0.016335,
0.012608,
0.008916,
0.005436,
0.00229,
-0.000452
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.003646,
0.015614,
0.038316,
0.072589,
0.113443,
0.155344,
0.196588,
0.237149,
0.268664,
0.283007,
0.279752,
0.261816,
0.233176,
0.197771,
0.159019,
0.119655,
0.081739,
0.046716,
0.015525
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000942,
-0.004739,
-0.013449,
-0.028832,
-0.050918,
-0.078301,
-0.109487,
-0.143349,
-0.176882,
-0.205732,
-0.226528,
-0.237491,
-0.238317,
-0.229794,
-0.213396,
-0.190934,
-0.164298,
-0.135279,
-0.105463
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.6e-05,
9e-05,
0.000291,
0.000698,
0.001398,
0.002472,
0.003993,
0.00602,
0.008462,
0.011085,
0.013655,
0.015983,
0.017948,
0.019488,
0.020587,
0.021264,
0.021559,
0.021523,
0.021212
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.004678,
0.020031,
0.049155,
0.093121,
0.145526,
0.199269,
0.25217,
0.304194,
0.344611,
0.362998,
0.358812,
0.335795,
0.299052,
0.253635,
0.203927,
0.153438,
0.104809,
0.05989,
0.019889
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001903,
-0.006068,
-0.012158,
-0.020148,
-0.03017,
-0.043793,
-0.062526,
-0.086608,
-0.098572,
-0.102902,
-0.103786,
-0.103027,
-0.101345,
-0.099009,
-0.096128,
-0.092767,
-0.088985,
-0.084848,
-0.080415,
-0.075756
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012469,
-0.034635,
-0.063956,
-0.098204,
-0.135514,
-0.174688,
-0.215148,
-0.256599,
-0.186637,
-0.128327,
-0.080612,
-0.042695,
-0.013744,
0.007198,
0.021191,
0.029353,
0.032795,
0.03257,
0.029637,
0.024842
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3.9e-05,
0.000225,
0.000726,
0.001745,
0.003495,
0.00618,
0.009982,
0.015051,
0.021154,
0.027714,
0.034137,
0.039957,
0.04487,
0.04872,
0.051468,
0.053161,
0.053898,
0.053808,
0.05303
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.049874,
-0.138539,
-0.255825,
-0.392817,
-0.542057,
-0.698753,
-0.860591,
-1.026397,
-0.746549,
-0.513307,
-0.322449,
-0.170782,
-0.054975,
0.02879,
0.084764,
0.117412,
0.131178,
0.130278,
0.11855,
0.099367
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.056658,
-0.056239,
-0.055081,
-0.052946,
-0.049669,
-0.045149,
-0.039323,
-0.032149,
-0.023593,
-0.01737,
-0.01309,
-0.010401,
-0.008976,
-0.008516,
-0.008754,
-0.009459,
-0.010436,
-0.011528,
-0.012612,
-0.013599
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.012469,
0.034635,
0.063956,
0.098204,
0.135514,
0.174688,
0.215148,
0.256599,
0.186637,
0.128327,
0.080612,
0.042695,
0.013744,
-0.007198,
-0.021191,
-0.029353,
-0.032795,
-0.03257,
-0.029637,
-0.024842
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.941653,
1.107113,
1.19612,
1.211943,
1.15921,
1.043528,
0.870737,
0.646215,
0.37456,
0.1661,
0.013248,
-0.091489,
-0.155649,
-0.186654,
-0.191573,
-0.17691,
-0.148448,
-0.111161,
-0.06918,
-0.025818
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
1.139079,
1.110854,
1.068544,
1.005803,
0.917966,
0.801813,
0.655053,
0.475825,
0.262503,
0.114629,
0.021023,
-0.028485,
-0.043277,
-0.03191,
-0.002001,
0.039865,
0.088182,
0.138506,
0.187403,
0.23235
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
1.285311,
1.289262,
1.273813,
1.233134,
1.163236,
1.061669,
0.926974,
0.758166,
0.554504,
0.407421,
0.30743,
0.245911,
0.214891,
0.207079,
0.215961,
0.235889,
0.262129,
0.290852,
0.319089,
0.344656
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
1.01984,
1.012294,
0.991452,
0.95302,
0.894042,
0.812681,
0.70782,
0.578685,
0.424682,
0.312658,
0.235624,
0.18722,
0.161569,
0.153291,
0.157579,
0.170265,
0.18785,
0.207501,
0.227018,
0.244777
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.147383,
-0.27705,
-0.358184,
-0.440071,
-0.53769,
-0.658578,
-0.805599,
-0.979101,
-1.044058,
-1.051044,
-1.018726,
-0.960823,
-0.887542,
-0.806498,
-0.723339,
-0.642137,
-0.565664,
-0.495669,
-0.433081,
-0.378254
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.147383,
-0.27705,
-0.358184,
-0.440071,
-0.53769,
-0.658578,
-0.805599,
-0.979101,
-1.044058,
-1.051044,
-1.018726,
-0.960823,
-0.887542,
-0.806498,
-0.723339,
-0.642137,
-0.565664,
-0.495669,
-0.433081,
-0.378254
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.4714,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": 0.2308,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 1.6101,
"equity_peak_quarter": 11
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_de
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_de",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "DE",
"name": "Germany"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000756,
0.001015,
0.001622,
0.002588,
0.003887,
0.005392,
0.007015,
0.008756,
0.009826,
0.010256,
0.010111,
0.009586,
0.008845,
0.008004,
0.007122,
0.006267,
0.005465,
0.004736,
0.004088,
0.003531
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000681,
0.001348,
0.001841,
0.002191,
0.002517,
0.002879,
0.003312,
0.003847,
0.004053,
0.003957,
0.003659,
0.003294,
0.002954,
0.002678,
0.002465,
0.002309,
0.002192,
0.002094,
0.002001,
0.001906
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.0092,
-0.016573,
-0.01838,
-0.017846,
-0.016655,
-0.015651,
-0.015251,
-0.015602,
-0.01203,
-0.007256,
-0.002766,
0.000791,
0.003245,
0.004664,
0.005225,
0.005127,
0.004569,
0.003723,
0.002733,
0.001708
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.044018,
-0.099375,
-0.144778,
-0.183621,
-0.218725,
-0.252705,
-0.28796,
-0.326488,
-0.347494,
-0.355278,
-0.353738,
-0.346073,
-0.334779,
-0.321754,
-0.308392,
-0.295707,
-0.284369,
-0.274781,
-0.267134,
-0.261464
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000138,
0.000387,
0.000789,
0.001367,
0.002139,
0.003106,
0.004261,
0.005605,
0.007025,
0.00841,
0.009669,
0.010744,
0.01161,
0.012264,
0.012718,
0.012992,
0.013115,
0.013112,
0.013011,
0.012837
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.032648,
0.086046,
0.150326,
0.22149,
0.29688,
0.375056,
0.455566,
0.538279,
0.392552,
0.267934,
0.176393,
0.150504,
0.12227,
0.094901,
0.070654,
-0.078406,
-0.084383,
-0.081785,
-0.072904,
-0.059779
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.010923,
0.026842,
0.046612,
0.069118,
0.093544,
0.119217,
0.145817,
0.1733,
0.133585,
0.098661,
0.068469,
0.043296,
0.023238,
0.008102,
-0.002569,
-0.009312,
-0.012783,
-0.013641,
-0.012526,
-0.009993
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.018337,
-0.021643,
-0.024123,
-0.025564,
-0.025943,
-0.025348,
-0.023913,
-0.021777,
-0.019059,
-0.016031,
-0.012999,
-0.010222,
-0.00788,
-0.006065,
-0.004798,
-0.004046,
-0.003743,
-0.0038,
-0.004123,
-0.004616
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.015691,
-0.015692,
-0.015455,
-0.014975,
-0.014293,
-0.013463,
-0.012528,
-0.011516,
-0.010435,
-0.009351,
-0.008343,
-0.007474,
-0.00678,
-0.006273,
-0.00594,
-0.005755,
-0.005681,
-0.005681,
-0.005718,
-0.005759
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.010734,
-0.010722,
-0.010562,
-0.010249,
-0.009801,
-0.009245,
-0.008605,
-0.007899,
-0.007136,
-0.006352,
-0.005593,
-0.004896,
-0.004282,
-0.003761,
-0.003331,
-0.002982,
-0.002697,
-0.00246,
-0.002254,
-0.002062
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.5e-05,
7.6e-05,
0.00021,
0.00044,
0.000761,
0.001155,
0.001608,
0.002111,
0.002628,
0.00311,
0.003529,
0.003874,
0.004142,
0.004332,
0.00445,
0.004498,
0.004483,
0.004411,
0.004287
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000976,
-0.003557,
-0.007673,
-0.013007,
-0.019212,
-0.02601,
-0.033223,
-0.04078,
-0.048199,
-0.054949,
-0.060614,
-0.064947,
-0.067864,
-0.069412,
-0.069731,
-0.069018,
-0.067492,
-0.065378,
-0.062885
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.006511,
0.015364,
0.025722,
0.03607,
0.045831,
0.054656,
0.062749,
0.070716,
0.073809,
0.072501,
0.067432,
0.060068,
0.051688,
0.043256,
0.035389,
0.028588,
0.023019,
0.018733,
0.015647,
0.013656
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.3e-05,
0.000109,
0.000238,
0.000418,
0.000647,
0.000921,
0.001235,
0.001588,
0.001957,
0.00232,
0.002657,
0.002957,
0.003216,
0.003432,
0.003609,
0.003752,
0.003867,
0.003961,
0.004039,
0.004107
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004558,
0.010755,
0.018006,
0.025249,
0.032082,
0.038259,
0.043924,
0.049501,
0.051666,
0.050751,
0.047202,
0.042048,
0.036181,
0.030279,
0.024773,
0.020012,
0.016113,
0.013113,
0.010953,
0.009559
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.00017,
-0.000229,
-0.000369,
-0.000593,
-0.000896,
-0.001248,
-0.00163,
-0.002039,
-0.002297,
-0.00241,
-0.002389,
-0.002276,
-0.002108,
-0.001912,
-0.001702,
-0.001495,
-0.001299,
-0.001118,
-0.000955,
-0.000814
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-1e-06,
-7e-06,
-1.9e-05,
-4e-05,
-7.2e-05,
-0.000113,
-0.000163,
-0.000221,
-0.000286,
-0.000353,
-0.000418,
-0.00048,
-0.000539,
-0.000592,
-0.000639,
-0.000681,
-0.000716,
-0.000745,
-0.000767
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.00845,
-0.019124,
-0.028306,
-0.036841,
-0.045391,
-0.054329,
-0.063856,
-0.074164,
-0.081111,
-0.085182,
-0.086676,
-0.085973,
-0.083534,
-0.079847,
-0.075373,
-0.070532,
-0.065664,
-0.061034,
-0.056833,
-0.053188
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00644,
-0.011601,
-0.012866,
-0.012493,
-0.011658,
-0.010956,
-0.010675,
-0.010922,
-0.008421,
-0.005079,
-0.001936,
0.000554,
0.002271,
0.003265,
0.003657,
0.003589,
0.003198,
0.002606,
0.001913,
0.001196
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000453,
0.000611,
0.000983,
0.00158,
0.002388,
0.003329,
0.004346,
0.005438,
0.006126,
0.006427,
0.00637,
0.006069,
0.005621,
0.005098,
0.004539,
0.003987,
0.003463,
0.002981,
0.002547,
0.002172
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000117,
-0.000245,
-0.000435,
-0.000728,
-0.001148,
-0.001697,
-0.00236,
-0.003127,
-0.003868,
-0.004491,
-0.004935,
-0.005187,
-0.005262,
-0.005187,
-0.004994,
-0.004717,
-0.004385,
-0.004023,
-0.003651,
-0.003285
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
2e-06,
6e-06,
1.2e-05,
1.9e-05,
2.7e-05,
3.5e-05,
4.3e-05,
4.8e-05,
5.1e-05,
5e-05,
4.5e-05,
3.5e-05,
1.7e-05,
-1.6e-05,
-7.7e-05,
-0.000139,
-0.000196,
-0.000246
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
2e-06,
2e-06,
3e-06
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000515,
0.000692,
0.001106,
0.001765,
0.002651,
0.003677,
0.004784,
0.005972,
0.006701,
0.006994,
0.006896,
0.006537,
0.006033,
0.005459,
0.004857,
0.004274,
0.003727,
0.00323,
0.002788,
0.002408
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013409,
0.030029,
0.043593,
0.055033,
0.06513,
0.074683,
0.084501,
0.095267,
0.100575,
0.101876,
0.100562,
0.097758,
0.094271,
0.090647,
0.087234,
0.084254,
0.08182,
0.079974,
0.078707,
0.07798
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000733,
-0.002041,
-0.003419,
-0.004617,
-0.005557,
-0.006259,
-0.006795,
-0.007253,
-0.007345,
-0.007002,
-0.0063,
-0.005375,
-0.004367,
-0.003389,
-0.002523,
-0.001817,
-0.001289,
-0.000938,
-0.000747,
-0.000691
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
6e-06,
1.7e-05,
3.4e-05,
5.6e-05,
8e-05,
0.000104,
0.000125,
0.000142,
0.00015,
0.000147,
0.000133,
0.000104,
5.1e-05,
-1.9e-05,
-9.6e-05,
-0.000172,
-0.000243,
-0.000305
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001162,
-0.001118,
-0.00103,
-0.000897,
-0.000725,
-0.000521,
-0.000295,
-5.1e-05,
0.000209,
0.00047,
0.00072,
0.000947,
0.001142,
0.001304,
0.001432,
0.001532,
0.001607,
0.001665,
0.001711,
0.001751
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000733,
0.002041,
0.003419,
0.004617,
0.005557,
0.006259,
0.006795,
0.007253,
0.007345,
0.007002,
0.0063,
0.005375,
0.004367,
0.003389,
0.002523,
0.001817,
0.001289,
0.000938,
0.000747,
0.000691
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.03484,
0.041122,
0.045834,
0.048571,
0.049291,
0.048161,
0.045435,
0.041377,
0.036212,
0.030458,
0.024698,
0.019423,
0.014973,
0.011524,
0.009116,
0.007688,
0.007111,
0.00722,
0.007833,
0.008771
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.070611,
0.070615,
0.069546,
0.067387,
0.064321,
0.060583,
0.056374,
0.05182,
0.046958,
0.042081,
0.037544,
0.033632,
0.030512,
0.028229,
0.026731,
0.025896,
0.025564,
0.025565,
0.02573,
0.025914
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.088017,
0.087918,
0.08661,
0.084042,
0.080369,
0.075808,
0.070562,
0.064773,
0.058513,
0.05209,
0.045866,
0.040144,
0.03511,
0.030841,
0.027317,
0.02445,
0.022117,
0.020174,
0.018481,
0.016911
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020919,
0.020122,
0.018547,
0.016152,
0.013046,
0.009383,
0.005304,
0.00091,
-0.003753,
-0.008466,
-0.012968,
-0.017043,
-0.020558,
-0.023464,
-0.025779,
-0.02757,
-0.028933,
-0.029975,
-0.030802,
-0.031511
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.031543,
-0.030494,
-0.009838,
0.01182,
0.033886,
0.05621,
0.079087,
0.103015,
0.13773,
0.165051,
0.185417,
0.199482,
0.208044,
0.211984,
0.212202,
0.209595,
0.204972,
0.199043,
0.192404,
0.185546
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.050361,
-0.123118,
-0.200295,
-0.287413,
-0.388437,
-0.506334,
-0.643253,
-0.80047,
-0.899045,
-0.950199,
-0.964128,
-0.949863,
-0.91525,
-0.866944,
-0.810441,
-0.750166,
-0.689511,
-0.630966,
-0.576215,
-0.526344
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0103,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.1464,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.1733,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_fr
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_fr",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "FR",
"name": "France"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000838,
0.001097,
0.001689,
0.002632,
0.003909,
0.00543,
0.007133,
0.009009,
0.010163,
0.010685,
0.010673,
0.0103,
0.009702,
0.008973,
0.008174,
0.007356,
0.006553,
0.00579,
0.005073,
0.00443
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000684,
0.001318,
0.001768,
0.002072,
0.002348,
0.002673,
0.003089,
0.003631,
0.003843,
0.00378,
0.003557,
0.003294,
0.003065,
0.002892,
0.002769,
0.002679,
0.002603,
0.002525,
0.002429,
0.002315
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.006823,
-0.012714,
-0.014595,
-0.014535,
-0.013772,
-0.013016,
-0.012656,
-0.012862,
-0.010201,
-0.006499,
-0.002897,
4.7e-05,
0.002143,
0.003411,
0.00397,
0.003974,
0.003581,
0.002932,
0.00215,
0.001327
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.044018,
-0.099395,
-0.144874,
-0.183883,
-0.219266,
-0.253621,
-0.289312,
-0.328306,
-0.349793,
-0.358018,
-0.35681,
-0.349323,
-0.338041,
-0.324875,
-0.31125,
-0.298206,
-0.286445,
-0.276403,
-0.268289,
-0.262167
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000154,
0.000432,
0.000874,
0.001497,
0.002314,
0.003325,
0.004528,
0.00593,
0.007407,
0.008849,
0.010167,
0.011305,
0.012238,
0.012961,
0.013486,
0.01383,
0.014018,
0.014075,
0.014027,
0.013898
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.037918,
0.099937,
0.174594,
0.257247,
0.344807,
0.435603,
0.52911,
0.625177,
0.455924,
0.311188,
0.190307,
0.150504,
0.12227,
0.094901,
-0.071307,
-0.091064,
-0.098005,
-0.094988,
-0.084673,
-0.069429
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013221,
0.032295,
0.055912,
0.082737,
0.11182,
0.142453,
0.174323,
0.207358,
0.159712,
0.117902,
0.081943,
0.052115,
0.028453,
0.010663,
-0.001813,
-0.009667,
-0.013683,
-0.014645,
-0.013325,
-0.010361
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.018337,
-0.021643,
-0.024123,
-0.025564,
-0.025943,
-0.025348,
-0.023913,
-0.021777,
-0.019059,
-0.016031,
-0.012999,
-0.010222,
-0.00788,
-0.006065,
-0.004798,
-0.004046,
-0.003743,
-0.0038,
-0.004123,
-0.004616
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.015691,
-0.015692,
-0.015455,
-0.014975,
-0.014293,
-0.013463,
-0.012528,
-0.011516,
-0.010435,
-0.009351,
-0.008343,
-0.007474,
-0.00678,
-0.006273,
-0.00594,
-0.005755,
-0.005681,
-0.005681,
-0.005718,
-0.005759
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.010734,
-0.010722,
-0.010562,
-0.010249,
-0.009801,
-0.009245,
-0.008605,
-0.007899,
-0.007136,
-0.006352,
-0.005593,
-0.004896,
-0.004282,
-0.003761,
-0.003331,
-0.002982,
-0.002697,
-0.00246,
-0.002254,
-0.002062
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
9e-06,
4.7e-05,
0.000134,
0.000289,
0.000514,
0.000806,
0.001159,
0.001571,
0.002021,
0.00248,
0.002927,
0.003348,
0.00373,
0.004064,
0.004342,
0.004555,
0.004702,
0.004778,
0.004786
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000724,
-0.002685,
-0.005884,
-0.010113,
-0.015115,
-0.020669,
-0.026626,
-0.032919,
-0.039185,
-0.045007,
-0.050042,
-0.054074,
-0.057013,
-0.058878,
-0.059763,
-0.059811,
-0.059192,
-0.058077,
-0.05663
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.006741,
0.015589,
0.025874,
0.036107,
0.045748,
0.054585,
0.062882,
0.071191,
0.074388,
0.073272,
0.068569,
0.061637,
0.053663,
0.045561,
0.037959,
0.031294,
0.025765,
0.021431,
0.018202,
0.016022
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.4e-05,
0.000112,
0.000241,
0.000422,
0.00065,
0.000923,
0.001238,
0.001594,
0.001966,
0.002332,
0.002675,
0.002983,
0.003251,
0.003479,
0.003669,
0.003825,
0.003954,
0.004061,
0.004152,
0.004232
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004719,
0.010912,
0.018112,
0.025275,
0.032024,
0.03821,
0.044017,
0.049834,
0.052071,
0.051291,
0.047998,
0.043146,
0.037564,
0.031893,
0.026571,
0.021906,
0.018035,
0.015002,
0.012741,
0.011215
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000199,
-0.000261,
-0.000404,
-0.000632,
-0.000942,
-0.001312,
-0.001727,
-0.002184,
-0.00247,
-0.002604,
-0.002608,
-0.002523,
-0.00238,
-0.002203,
-0.002006,
-0.001803,
-0.001601,
-0.001409,
-0.001228,
-0.001065
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-4e-06,
-2.2e-05,
-6.3e-05,
-0.000139,
-0.000253,
-0.000408,
-0.000603,
-0.00084,
-0.001113,
-0.001407,
-0.001715,
-0.002029,
-0.002341,
-0.002645,
-0.002933,
-0.003201,
-0.003442,
-0.003653,
-0.003831
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.006901,
-0.015577,
-0.022943,
-0.029636,
-0.036161,
-0.04285,
-0.049927,
-0.057596,
-0.062497,
-0.065115,
-0.065813,
-0.06497,
-0.062977,
-0.060209,
-0.057004,
-0.053647,
-0.050362,
-0.047317,
-0.04462,
-0.042342
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.004776,
-0.0089,
-0.010216,
-0.010174,
-0.009641,
-0.009111,
-0.008859,
-0.009003,
-0.007141,
-0.00455,
-0.002028,
3.3e-05,
0.0015,
0.002388,
0.002779,
0.002782,
0.002506,
0.002053,
0.001505,
0.000929
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000503,
0.00066,
0.00102,
0.001596,
0.002379,
0.003316,
0.004364,
0.005517,
0.006239,
0.006578,
0.00659,
0.006374,
0.006013,
0.005565,
0.005068,
0.004554,
0.004046,
0.00356,
0.003103,
0.002692
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00013,
-0.000267,
-0.000462,
-0.000755,
-0.001172,
-0.001721,
-0.002396,
-0.003193,
-0.00397,
-0.004634,
-0.00513,
-0.005444,
-0.005587,
-0.005581,
-0.005453,
-0.00523,
-0.004938,
-0.004601,
-0.004237,
-0.003864
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
2e-06,
4e-06,
9e-06,
1.4e-05,
1.9e-05,
2.4e-05,
2.9e-05,
3.2e-05,
3.2e-05,
3e-05,
2.5e-05,
1.6e-05,
2e-06,
-3.5e-05,
-7.6e-05,
-0.000116,
-0.000151,
-0.00018
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
1e-06,
2e-06,
2e-06
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000645,
0.000845,
0.001301,
0.002027,
0.00301,
0.004181,
0.005493,
0.006937,
0.007826,
0.008227,
0.008219,
0.007931,
0.00747,
0.006909,
0.006294,
0.005664,
0.005046,
0.004458,
0.003906,
0.003411
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013356,
0.029977,
0.043581,
0.055138,
0.065459,
0.075341,
0.085557,
0.096751,
0.10255,
0.104344,
0.103438,
0.100883,
0.097458,
0.093717,
0.090042,
0.086686,
0.083802,
0.08147,
0.079709,
0.078506
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000733,
-0.002041,
-0.003419,
-0.004617,
-0.005557,
-0.006259,
-0.006795,
-0.007253,
-0.007345,
-0.007002,
-0.0063,
-0.005375,
-0.004367,
-0.003389,
-0.002523,
-0.001817,
-0.001289,
-0.000938,
-0.000747,
-0.000691
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
5e-06,
1.2e-05,
2.4e-05,
3.9e-05,
5.4e-05,
6.8e-05,
8e-05,
8.8e-05,
9e-05,
8.3e-05,
7.1e-05,
4.5e-05,
4e-06,
-4.4e-05,
-9.6e-05,
-0.000145,
-0.000189,
-0.000226
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001162,
-0.001118,
-0.00103,
-0.000897,
-0.000725,
-0.000521,
-0.000295,
-5.1e-05,
0.000209,
0.00047,
0.00072,
0.000947,
0.001142,
0.001304,
0.001432,
0.001532,
0.001607,
0.001665,
0.001711,
0.001751
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000733,
0.002041,
0.003419,
0.004617,
0.005557,
0.006259,
0.006795,
0.007253,
0.007345,
0.007002,
0.0063,
0.005375,
0.004367,
0.003389,
0.002523,
0.001817,
0.001289,
0.000938,
0.000747,
0.000691
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.03484,
0.041122,
0.045834,
0.048571,
0.049291,
0.048161,
0.045435,
0.041377,
0.036212,
0.030458,
0.024698,
0.019423,
0.014973,
0.011524,
0.009116,
0.007688,
0.007111,
0.00722,
0.007833,
0.008771
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.070611,
0.070615,
0.069546,
0.067387,
0.064321,
0.060583,
0.056374,
0.05182,
0.046958,
0.042081,
0.037544,
0.033632,
0.030512,
0.028229,
0.026731,
0.025896,
0.025564,
0.025565,
0.02573,
0.025914
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.088017,
0.087918,
0.08661,
0.084042,
0.080369,
0.075808,
0.070562,
0.064773,
0.058513,
0.05209,
0.045866,
0.040144,
0.03511,
0.030841,
0.027317,
0.02445,
0.022117,
0.020174,
0.018481,
0.016911
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020919,
0.020122,
0.018547,
0.016152,
0.013046,
0.009383,
0.005304,
0.00091,
-0.003753,
-0.008466,
-0.012968,
-0.017043,
-0.020558,
-0.023464,
-0.025779,
-0.02757,
-0.028933,
-0.029975,
-0.030802,
-0.031511
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.026696,
-0.026863,
-0.010905,
0.005918,
0.023237,
0.040905,
0.059074,
0.078069,
0.106274,
0.128539,
0.145156,
0.15659,
0.163452,
0.166447,
0.166325,
0.163828,
0.159636,
0.154354,
0.148481,
0.142439
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.050361,
-0.123138,
-0.200391,
-0.287676,
-0.388978,
-0.50725,
-0.644604,
-0.802289,
-0.901344,
-0.95294,
-0.967199,
-0.953112,
-0.918512,
-0.870065,
-0.813299,
-0.752665,
-0.691587,
-0.632588,
-0.577371,
-0.527048
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0107,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.1205,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2074,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_it
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_it",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "IT",
"name": "Italy"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000877,
0.001099,
0.001544,
0.002181,
0.002964,
0.003859,
0.004882,
0.006065,
0.006489,
0.006367,
0.005934,
0.005409,
0.004927,
0.004544,
0.004264,
0.004078,
0.003966,
0.003906,
0.003882,
0.003884
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000729,
0.001401,
0.001824,
0.001995,
0.002019,
0.002001,
0.002031,
0.002172,
0.001958,
0.001494,
0.000969,
0.000546,
0.000306,
0.000263,
0.000383,
0.000619,
0.000918,
0.001234,
0.001535,
0.001799
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.005348,
-0.010301,
-0.012225,
-0.012472,
-0.011974,
-0.011345,
-0.010971,
-0.011047,
-0.008916,
-0.005877,
-0.002855,
-0.000351,
0.001445,
0.00253,
0.002998,
0.002982,
0.00262,
0.002039,
0.001347,
0.000628
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.044018,
-0.099356,
-0.144689,
-0.183379,
-0.21823,
-0.251871,
-0.286739,
-0.324856,
-0.345444,
-0.352849,
-0.35104,
-0.343248,
-0.331978,
-0.319114,
-0.306026,
-0.293688,
-0.282738,
-0.273552,
-0.266304,
-0.261011
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000161,
0.00045,
0.000893,
0.00149,
0.002231,
0.003103,
0.004102,
0.005232,
0.006371,
0.007419,
0.008311,
0.009025,
0.009562,
0.009943,
0.010195,
0.010346,
0.010423,
0.010452,
0.010451,
0.010438
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.04034,
0.106321,
0.185747,
0.27368,
0.366834,
0.46343,
0.562911,
0.665115,
0.485049,
0.331068,
0.202465,
0.149309,
0.1213,
0.094147,
-0.075862,
-0.096881,
-0.104266,
-0.101056,
-0.090082,
-0.073864
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014127,
0.035057,
0.060592,
0.089144,
0.119619,
0.151398,
0.18432,
0.218386,
0.163283,
0.115295,
0.074604,
0.041479,
0.015846,
-0.002757,
-0.015098,
-0.022089,
-0.024723,
-0.023972,
-0.020739,
-0.015818
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.018337,
-0.021643,
-0.024123,
-0.025564,
-0.025943,
-0.025348,
-0.023913,
-0.021777,
-0.019059,
-0.016031,
-0.012999,
-0.010222,
-0.00788,
-0.006065,
-0.004798,
-0.004046,
-0.003743,
-0.0038,
-0.004123,
-0.004616
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.015691,
-0.015692,
-0.015455,
-0.014975,
-0.014293,
-0.013463,
-0.012528,
-0.011516,
-0.010435,
-0.009351,
-0.008343,
-0.007474,
-0.00678,
-0.006273,
-0.00594,
-0.005755,
-0.005681,
-0.005681,
-0.005718,
-0.005759
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.010734,
-0.010722,
-0.010562,
-0.010249,
-0.009801,
-0.009245,
-0.008605,
-0.007899,
-0.007136,
-0.006352,
-0.005593,
-0.004896,
-0.004282,
-0.003761,
-0.003331,
-0.002982,
-0.002697,
-0.00246,
-0.002254,
-0.002062
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
7e-06,
1.2e-05,
9e-06,
-1.1e-05,
-5e-05,
-0.000104,
-0.000164,
-0.000223,
-0.000264,
-0.000262,
-0.000191,
-3.8e-05,
0.000199,
0.000509,
0.000875,
0.001275,
0.001687,
0.002091
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000568,
-0.002142,
-0.004768,
-0.008306,
-0.012554,
-0.017325,
-0.022487,
-0.027972,
-0.03349,
-0.038696,
-0.0433,
-0.047111,
-0.050047,
-0.052111,
-0.053377,
-0.053959,
-0.053994,
-0.053624,
-0.05298
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00685,
0.015561,
0.025347,
0.034604,
0.04274,
0.049773,
0.056202,
0.062654,
0.063863,
0.061109,
0.055498,
0.048429,
0.041028,
0.034076,
0.028032,
0.023167,
0.019541,
0.017099,
0.015712,
0.015213
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.4e-05,
0.000112,
0.000239,
0.000412,
0.000626,
0.000874,
0.001155,
0.001469,
0.001788,
0.002094,
0.002371,
0.002613,
0.002818,
0.002989,
0.003129,
0.003245,
0.003342,
0.003428,
0.003506,
0.003582
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004795,
0.010892,
0.017743,
0.024223,
0.029918,
0.034841,
0.039341,
0.043858,
0.044704,
0.042777,
0.038848,
0.0339,
0.028719,
0.023853,
0.019622,
0.016217,
0.013679,
0.011969,
0.010998,
0.010649
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000192,
-0.000241,
-0.000342,
-0.000487,
-0.000669,
-0.00088,
-0.00112,
-0.001396,
-0.001507,
-0.001496,
-0.001413,
-0.001303,
-0.001196,
-0.001106,
-0.001033,
-0.000978,
-0.000937,
-0.000907,
-0.000885,
-0.00087
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-1e-06,
-2e-06,
-2e-06,
-1e-06,
4e-06,
1.3e-05,
2.2e-05,
3.1e-05,
3.7e-05,
3.7e-05,
2.8e-05,
4e-06,
-3.3e-05,
-8e-05,
-0.000133,
-0.000187,
-0.000238,
-0.000283,
-0.00032
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.006013,
-0.01362,
-0.020225,
-0.026467,
-0.032838,
-0.039591,
-0.046827,
-0.05465,
-0.060088,
-0.063432,
-0.064821,
-0.064479,
-0.062725,
-0.059924,
-0.056437,
-0.052598,
-0.048686,
-0.044922,
-0.04147,
-0.03844
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003744,
-0.007211,
-0.008558,
-0.00873,
-0.008382,
-0.007942,
-0.00768,
-0.007733,
-0.006241,
-0.004114,
-0.001999,
-0.000246,
0.001012,
0.001771,
0.002099,
0.002087,
0.001834,
0.001428,
0.000943,
0.000439
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000526,
0.000661,
0.000937,
0.001337,
0.001836,
0.002413,
0.003072,
0.003829,
0.004133,
0.004103,
0.003874,
0.003574,
0.003282,
0.003033,
0.002834,
0.002683,
0.00257,
0.002488,
0.002428,
0.002386
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-9.2e-05,
-0.000184,
-0.0003,
-0.000454,
-0.000652,
-0.000894,
-0.001183,
-0.001524,
-0.001825,
-0.002037,
-0.002151,
-0.002181,
-0.002153,
-0.002092,
-0.002017,
-0.001941,
-0.001872,
-0.001814,
-0.001768,
-0.001734
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
-2e-06,
-1e-05,
-3.3e-05,
-7.7e-05,
-0.000148,
-0.000249,
-0.000379,
-0.000535,
-0.000712,
-0.000896,
-0.001075,
-0.001235,
-0.001366,
-0.001463,
-0.001521,
-0.00154,
-0.001522,
-0.00147
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
1e-06,
2e-06,
4e-06,
6e-06,
8e-06,
1.1e-05,
1.4e-05,
1.7e-05,
1.9e-05,
2.1e-05,
2.3e-05,
2.3e-05,
2.4e-05,
2.3e-05,
2.3e-05
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000636,
0.000798,
0.001121,
0.001583,
0.002152,
0.002802,
0.003544,
0.004403,
0.004711,
0.004623,
0.004308,
0.003927,
0.003577,
0.003299,
0.003096,
0.002961,
0.002879,
0.002836,
0.002818,
0.00282
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013398,
0.030001,
0.04352,
0.054881,
0.064869,
0.074305,
0.084015,
0.094682,
0.099906,
0.101164,
0.099863,
0.097115,
0.09371,
0.090182,
0.086874,
0.083992,
0.081647,
0.079878,
0.078678,
0.078007
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000733,
-0.002041,
-0.003419,
-0.004617,
-0.005557,
-0.006259,
-0.006795,
-0.007253,
-0.007345,
-0.007002,
-0.0063,
-0.005375,
-0.004367,
-0.003389,
-0.002523,
-0.001817,
-0.001289,
-0.000938,
-0.000747,
-0.000691
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
-2e-06,
-1.3e-05,
-3.9e-05,
-9.2e-05,
-0.000177,
-0.000298,
-0.000454,
-0.000641,
-0.000853,
-0.001074,
-0.001289,
-0.00148,
-0.001638,
-0.001753,
-0.001823,
-0.001846,
-0.001824,
-0.001762
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001162,
-0.001118,
-0.00103,
-0.000897,
-0.000725,
-0.000521,
-0.000295,
-5.1e-05,
0.000209,
0.00047,
0.00072,
0.000947,
0.001142,
0.001304,
0.001432,
0.001532,
0.001607,
0.001665,
0.001711,
0.001751
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000733,
0.002041,
0.003419,
0.004617,
0.005557,
0.006259,
0.006795,
0.007253,
0.007345,
0.007002,
0.0063,
0.005375,
0.004367,
0.003389,
0.002523,
0.001817,
0.001289,
0.000938,
0.000747,
0.000691
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.03484,
0.041122,
0.045834,
0.048571,
0.049291,
0.048161,
0.045435,
0.041377,
0.036212,
0.030458,
0.024698,
0.019423,
0.014973,
0.011524,
0.009116,
0.007688,
0.007111,
0.00722,
0.007833,
0.008771
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.070611,
0.070615,
0.069546,
0.067387,
0.064321,
0.060583,
0.056374,
0.05182,
0.046958,
0.042081,
0.037544,
0.033632,
0.030512,
0.028229,
0.026731,
0.025896,
0.025564,
0.025565,
0.02573,
0.025914
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.088017,
0.087918,
0.08661,
0.084042,
0.080369,
0.075808,
0.070562,
0.064773,
0.058513,
0.05209,
0.045866,
0.040144,
0.03511,
0.030841,
0.027317,
0.02445,
0.022117,
0.020174,
0.018481,
0.016911
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020919,
0.020122,
0.018547,
0.016152,
0.013046,
0.009383,
0.005304,
0.00091,
-0.003753,
-0.008466,
-0.012968,
-0.017043,
-0.020558,
-0.023464,
-0.025779,
-0.02757,
-0.028933,
-0.029975,
-0.030802,
-0.031511
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.026374,
-0.022791,
-0.003518,
0.015135,
0.033406,
0.05157,
0.070113,
0.089589,
0.117956,
0.139036,
0.153929,
0.163619,
0.169015,
0.170971,
0.170276,
0.167649,
0.163712,
0.158991,
0.153915,
0.148817
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.050361,
-0.1231,
-0.200206,
-0.287172,
-0.387942,
-0.505501,
-0.642032,
-0.798838,
-0.896994,
-0.947771,
-0.961429,
-0.947038,
-0.912449,
-0.864304,
-0.808075,
-0.748147,
-0.68788,
-0.629737,
-0.575385,
-0.525891
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0065,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 9,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.1037,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2184,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_jp
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_jp",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "JP",
"name": "Japan"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001084,
0.00135,
0.001856,
0.002521,
0.003263,
0.004018,
0.0048,
0.005668,
0.005513,
0.004619,
0.003299,
0.001872,
0.00056,
-0.000514,
-0.001301,
-0.001792,
-0.002005,
-0.00198,
-0.001771,
-0.001421
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000399,
0.000589,
0.000737,
0.000831,
0.000867,
0.000835,
0.000752,
0.000658,
0.000237,
-0.000405,
-0.001133,
-0.001802,
-0.002314,
-0.002627,
-0.002739,
-0.00267,
-0.002452,
-0.002124,
-0.001728,
-0.001297
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.013766,
-0.020986,
-0.018699,
-0.013896,
-0.009354,
-0.006023,
-0.004112,
-0.00351,
0.002502,
0.008747,
0.013279,
0.015665,
0.016109,
0.015043,
0.012941,
0.010236,
0.00729,
0.004381,
0.001708,
-0.000596
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000909,
-0.002371,
-0.003723,
-0.004721,
-0.005345,
-0.005667,
-0.005791,
-0.005822,
-0.005422,
-0.00456,
-0.003361,
-0.001999,
-0.000637,
0.000599,
0.001622,
0.002387,
0.002878,
0.003106,
0.003099,
0.002894
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.117661,
-0.242127,
-0.318491,
-0.362857,
-0.387543,
-0.402431,
-0.415398,
-0.432247,
-0.401522,
-0.342571,
-0.270289,
-0.195535,
-0.125754,
-0.065624,
-0.017644,
0.017343,
0.0397,
0.050594,
0.051682,
0.044897
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000144,
0.000352,
0.000644,
0.001026,
0.001493,
0.002035,
0.002647,
0.003333,
0.003965,
0.004451,
0.004741,
0.004824,
0.004721,
0.004468,
0.004106,
0.003681,
0.003231,
0.002791,
0.002388,
0.002041
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.047581,
0.125403,
0.219085,
0.3228,
0.432673,
0.546606,
0.663941,
0.784488,
0.572105,
0.390487,
0.238803,
0.11662,
0.022755,
-0.044956,
-0.089478,
-0.114269,
-0.122979,
-0.119194,
-0.10625,
-0.087121
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.010564,
0.023634,
0.039913,
0.058272,
0.077874,
0.098202,
0.119171,
0.140898,
0.107085,
0.076045,
0.048493,
0.025228,
0.006685,
-0.007126,
-0.016519,
-0.022004,
-0.024187,
-0.023737,
-0.021317,
-0.017511
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.004293,
-0.004858,
-0.005131,
-0.005086,
-0.004746,
-0.004157,
-0.003374,
-0.002447,
-0.001421,
-0.000384,
0.000575,
0.001382,
0.001994,
0.002389,
0.002567,
0.002547,
0.002356,
0.002031,
0.001609,
0.001127
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001687,
-0.001515,
-0.001295,
-0.001036,
-0.000757,
-0.000476,
-0.000206,
4.5e-05,
0.000277,
0.000473,
0.000612,
0.000682,
0.000679,
0.000607,
0.000474,
0.000293,
8.1e-05,
-0.000149,
-0.000382,
-0.000604
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001247,
-0.001248,
-0.001208,
-0.001129,
-0.00102,
-0.000892,
-0.000751,
-0.000604,
-0.000453,
-0.000309,
-0.000184,
-8.6e-05,
-2.1e-05,
1.2e-05,
1.5e-05,
-6e-06,
-4.5e-05,
-9.6e-05,
-0.000152,
-0.000207
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
-5e-06,
-4.1e-05,
-0.000139,
-0.000335,
-0.000652,
-0.001086,
-0.001623,
-0.002244,
-0.002915,
-0.003574,
-0.004154,
-0.004601,
-0.004882,
-0.004983,
-0.004907,
-0.004671,
-0.004303,
-0.003834
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.001454,
-0.004903,
-0.009803,
-0.015424,
-0.021175,
-0.02668,
-0.031773,
-0.036448,
-0.040133,
-0.042316,
-0.042745,
-0.041433,
-0.038598,
-0.034584,
-0.029794,
-0.024634,
-0.019474,
-0.014623,
-0.010319
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004398,
0.007615,
0.011348,
0.014969,
0.018217,
0.021027,
0.023651,
0.026439,
0.024614,
0.020272,
0.014477,
0.008368,
0.002722,
-0.002015,
-0.005632,
-0.008061,
-0.009332,
-0.009588,
-0.009019,
-0.007787
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
2.2e-05,
6e-05,
0.000117,
0.000192,
0.000283,
0.000388,
0.000506,
0.000638,
0.000761,
0.000863,
0.000935,
0.000977,
0.000991,
0.000981,
0.000952,
0.000912,
0.000865,
0.000817,
0.000772,
0.000733
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.003079,
0.00533,
0.007943,
0.010478,
0.012752,
0.014719,
0.016556,
0.018507,
0.01723,
0.01419,
0.010134,
0.005858,
0.001905,
-0.001411,
-0.003943,
-0.005642,
-0.006532,
-0.006712,
-0.006313,
-0.005451
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000217,
-0.000271,
-0.000375,
-0.000514,
-0.000672,
-0.000836,
-0.001008,
-0.001197,
-0.001182,
-0.001018,
-0.000765,
-0.000484,
-0.00022,
1e-06,
0.000169,
0.00028,
0.000338,
0.000348,
0.000322,
0.000266
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
-4e-06,
-1.5e-05,
-3.7e-05,
-7.6e-05,
-0.000133,
-0.000208,
-0.000304,
-0.000417,
-0.000542,
-0.000673,
-0.000802,
-0.000922,
-0.00103,
-0.001121,
-0.001194,
-0.001248,
-0.001284
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.010648,
-0.022024,
-0.029532,
-0.034872,
-0.039309,
-0.043595,
-0.048134,
-0.053216,
-0.054024,
-0.051893,
-0.047616,
-0.041872,
-0.035297,
-0.028456,
-0.021813,
-0.015716,
-0.010396,
-0.00598,
-0.002512,
3.3e-05
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.009636,
-0.01469,
-0.013089,
-0.009727,
-0.006548,
-0.004216,
-0.002878,
-0.002457,
0.001751,
0.006123,
0.009295,
0.010965,
0.011276,
0.01053,
0.009058,
0.007165,
0.005103,
0.003067,
0.001196,
-0.000418
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00065,
0.000812,
0.001124,
0.001541,
0.002016,
0.002509,
0.003023,
0.003591,
0.003547,
0.003054,
0.002294,
0.001452,
0.000661,
-2e-06,
-0.000506,
-0.00084,
-0.001013,
-0.001045,
-0.000965,
-0.000798
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000168,
-0.000335,
-0.000539,
-0.000795,
-0.001102,
-0.001449,
-0.001831,
-0.002252,
-0.002543,
-0.002623,
-0.002479,
-0.002149,
-0.001699,
-0.001194,
-0.000694,
-0.000243,
0.000129,
0.00041,
0.000602,
0.000702
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
-1e-06,
-1e-05,
-3.4e-05,
-8.4e-05,
-0.000168,
-0.000288,
-0.000443,
-0.000632,
-0.000847,
-0.001074,
-0.001297,
-0.001499,
-0.001667,
-0.001793,
-0.001872,
-0.001903,
-0.001888,
-0.001832
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
1e-06,
2e-06,
3e-06,
4e-06,
6e-06,
7e-06,
8e-06,
1e-05,
1.1e-05,
1.2e-05,
1.2e-05,
1.2e-05,
1.2e-05,
1.2e-05
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000751,
0.000935,
0.001286,
0.001747,
0.002261,
0.002785,
0.003327,
0.003928,
0.003821,
0.003201,
0.002286,
0.001297,
0.000388,
-0.000356,
-0.000902,
-0.001242,
-0.001389,
-0.001372,
-0.001227,
-0.000985
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.035591,
0.072945,
0.09577,
0.108786,
0.115607,
0.11923,
0.122134,
0.126161,
0.115619,
0.096542,
0.073689,
0.050514,
0.029326,
0.011508,
-0.002265,
-0.011837,
-0.017418,
-0.019452,
-0.01852,
-0.015265
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000227,
-0.000593,
-0.000931,
-0.00118,
-0.001336,
-0.001417,
-0.001448,
-0.001456,
-0.001356,
-0.00114,
-0.00084,
-0.0005,
-0.000159,
0.00015,
0.000406,
0.000597,
0.00072,
0.000777,
0.000775,
0.000723
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
-2e-06,
-1.3e-05,
-4.4e-05,
-0.000108,
-0.000215,
-0.000367,
-0.000566,
-0.000806,
-0.001081,
-0.001371,
-0.001655,
-0.001913,
-0.002128,
-0.002289,
-0.00239,
-0.002429,
-0.00241,
-0.002339
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000909,
-0.002371,
-0.003723,
-0.004721,
-0.005345,
-0.005667,
-0.005791,
-0.005822,
-0.005422,
-0.00456,
-0.003361,
-0.001999,
-0.000637,
0.000599,
0.001622,
0.002387,
0.002878,
0.003106,
0.003099,
0.002894
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000101,
-9.1e-05,
-7e-05,
-3.7e-05,
3e-06,
4.9e-05,
9.8e-05,
0.000148,
0.000197,
0.000244,
0.000283,
0.000312,
0.00033,
0.000336,
0.000332,
0.00032,
0.000301,
0.000278,
0.000253,
0.000228
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000227,
0.000593,
0.000931,
0.00118,
0.001336,
0.001417,
0.001448,
0.001456,
0.001356,
0.00114,
0.00084,
0.0005,
0.000159,
-0.00015,
-0.000406,
-0.000597,
-0.00072,
-0.000777,
-0.000775,
-0.000723
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.008157,
0.009229,
0.009749,
0.009663,
0.009017,
0.007899,
0.006411,
0.00465,
0.0027,
0.000729,
-0.001092,
-0.002626,
-0.003788,
-0.004538,
-0.004878,
-0.004839,
-0.004477,
-0.00386,
-0.003058,
-0.002141
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.007592,
0.006819,
0.00583,
0.004664,
0.003407,
0.002142,
0.000928,
-0.000204,
-0.001248,
-0.002127,
-0.002753,
-0.00307,
-0.003057,
-0.00273,
-0.002131,
-0.00132,
-0.000362,
0.000671,
0.001717,
0.002719
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.010224,
0.010233,
0.009902,
0.009255,
0.008365,
0.007312,
0.006161,
0.004954,
0.003714,
0.002533,
0.001507,
0.000708,
0.000173,
-9.7e-05,
-0.000124,
4.9e-05,
0.000371,
0.000787,
0.001246,
0.0017
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001811,
0.001644,
0.001259,
0.000673,
-6.3e-05,
-0.000891,
-0.001766,
-0.002658,
-0.003555,
-0.00439,
-0.005095,
-0.005619,
-0.005939,
-0.006053,
-0.005981,
-0.005755,
-0.005414,
-0.004999,
-0.004549,
-0.0041
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.016797,
0.093015,
0.166351,
0.212711,
0.241839,
0.261603,
0.278581,
0.29787,
0.306093,
0.282643,
0.240929,
0.19095,
0.139912,
0.092739,
0.052507,
0.020814,
-0.001884,
-0.015944,
-0.022276,
-0.022143
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.124005,
-0.26587,
-0.374007,
-0.46665,
-0.557255,
-0.656061,
-0.770691,
-0.906229,
-0.953072,
-0.937493,
-0.880679,
-0.799325,
-0.706225,
-0.610814,
-0.519693,
-0.437115,
-0.365442,
-0.305591,
-0.2574,
-0.219984
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0057,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 8,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0502,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.1409,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_ca
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_ca",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "CA",
"name": "Canada"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00083,
0.002035,
0.00593,
0.013434,
0.024842,
0.03886,
0.053898,
0.0692,
0.083594,
0.095108,
0.10166,
0.102814,
0.098958,
0.090873,
0.079521,
0.065916,
0.051046,
0.035813,
0.02099,
0.007205
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004953,
0.008968,
0.009888,
0.011178,
0.015267,
0.022267,
0.031164,
0.041036,
0.048138,
0.053186,
0.056391,
0.057686,
0.05692,
0.054052,
0.049228,
0.042766,
0.0351,
0.026715,
0.018093,
0.009669
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.049816,
-0.072352,
-0.056756,
-0.039839,
-0.030636,
-0.028738,
-0.031657,
-0.037148,
-0.013204,
0.010827,
0.027136,
0.035567,
0.038036,
0.036586,
0.032848,
0.027986,
0.022773,
0.017707,
0.013086,
0.00907
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.032281,
-0.076568,
-0.105049,
-0.116718,
-0.118266,
-0.116095,
-0.114339,
-0.115008,
-0.098928,
-0.067492,
-0.028391,
0.011054,
0.045835,
0.073258,
0.092384,
0.103434,
0.107307,
0.105246,
0.098607,
0.088718
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.215655,
-0.443064,
-0.565768,
-0.645612,
-0.719977,
-0.807199,
-0.914076,
-1.042057,
-1.05833,
-1.010677,
-0.928916,
-0.831772,
-0.731003,
-0.63388,
-0.544686,
-0.465713,
-0.397922,
-0.341368,
-0.295502,
-0.259407
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000712,
0.002373,
0.004949,
0.008493,
0.013221,
0.019307,
0.026811,
0.035738,
0.045593,
0.0557,
0.065322,
0.073847,
0.080833,
0.086004,
0.089227,
0.09049,
0.089881,
0.087564,
0.083759,
0.078723
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.192149,
0.455764,
0.62529,
0.69475,
0.703963,
0.691039,
0.680589,
0.684573,
0.588859,
0.401738,
0.168993,
0.077426,
-0.272829,
-0.436058,
-0.549903,
-0.615677,
-0.638735,
-0.626466,
-0.586947,
-0.528083
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014706,
0.038368,
0.073214,
0.120107,
0.178791,
0.245349,
0.315466,
0.387123,
0.368612,
0.35072,
0.3278,
0.298603,
0.263818,
0.224911,
0.183604,
0.14163,
0.1006,
0.061916,
0.026718,
-0.00415
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.09929,
-0.107621,
-0.106487,
-0.096905,
-0.080933,
-0.06042,
-0.036751,
-0.010911,
0.016394,
0.042174,
0.063766,
0.079641,
0.089349,
0.093213,
0.092022,
0.086789,
0.07859,
0.06845,
0.057278,
0.045841
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.013165,
-0.007713,
-0.000698,
0.00708,
0.014808,
0.022031,
0.028629,
0.034702,
0.040449,
0.045115,
0.048005,
0.048806,
0.047558,
0.044546,
0.040179,
0.034904,
0.029148,
0.023288,
0.017629,
0.012406
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002692,
-0.001929,
-1.1e-05,
0.002663,
0.005669,
0.008749,
0.011806,
0.014846,
0.017927,
0.020625,
0.022553,
0.023517,
0.023505,
0.022632,
0.021079,
0.019052,
0.016751,
0.014353,
0.012004,
0.009818
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.000294,
0.001538,
0.004499,
0.009848,
0.017717,
0.027742,
0.039432,
0.052333,
0.065464,
0.077425,
0.086992,
0.093318,
0.095969,
0.094881,
0.090288,
0.082648,
0.072567,
0.06073,
0.047836
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.0054,
-0.017747,
-0.034134,
-0.051894,
-0.06956,
-0.086662,
-0.103307,
-0.119858,
-0.133432,
-0.141642,
-0.143391,
-0.138702,
-0.128343,
-0.113476,
-0.095404,
-0.075413,
-0.054662,
-0.034139,
-0.014635
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.050744,
0.121762,
0.178094,
0.220255,
0.25848,
0.297157,
0.337732,
0.381933,
0.397292,
0.37957,
0.334347,
0.273032,
0.205038,
0.136999,
0.073195,
0.016201,
-0.032592,
-0.072599,
-0.103811,
-0.126615
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000254,
0.000863,
0.001753,
0.002854,
0.004147,
0.005632,
0.007321,
0.009231,
0.011217,
0.013115,
0.014787,
0.016152,
0.017177,
0.017862,
0.018228,
0.018309,
0.018146,
0.017783,
0.017264,
0.016631
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.035521,
0.085233,
0.124666,
0.154179,
0.180936,
0.20801,
0.236412,
0.267353,
0.278104,
0.265699,
0.234043,
0.191122,
0.143527,
0.095899,
0.051236,
0.011341,
-0.022814,
-0.050819,
-0.072668,
-0.08863
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000166,
-0.000367,
-0.000995,
-0.00217,
-0.00391,
-0.00599,
-0.008168,
-0.01035,
-0.012334,
-0.01383,
-0.014563,
-0.014524,
-0.013804,
-0.012524,
-0.010818,
-0.008823,
-0.006668,
-0.004477,
-0.002355,
-0.00039
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2.5e-05,
0.000136,
0.000412,
0.000937,
0.001758,
0.002878,
0.004284,
0.005954,
0.007815,
0.009743,
0.011605,
0.013283,
0.014683,
0.015739,
0.016414,
0.016694,
0.016591,
0.016134,
0.015366
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.035665,
-0.072987,
-0.092403,
-0.103698,
-0.112747,
-0.122715,
-0.135181,
-0.150777,
-0.147727,
-0.134564,
-0.117134,
-0.099113,
-0.08257,
-0.0685,
-0.057229,
-0.04869,
-0.042609,
-0.038616,
-0.036311,
-0.035307
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.034871,
-0.050646,
-0.039729,
-0.027887,
-0.021445,
-0.020117,
-0.02216,
-0.026004,
-0.009243,
0.007579,
0.018995,
0.024897,
0.026625,
0.02561,
0.022994,
0.01959,
0.015941,
0.012395,
0.00916,
0.006349
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000498,
0.001222,
0.003562,
0.008071,
0.014926,
0.023351,
0.032391,
0.04159,
0.050245,
0.057169,
0.061112,
0.061811,
0.059496,
0.054639,
0.047816,
0.039639,
0.0307,
0.021543,
0.012632,
0.004345
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000129,
-0.000412,
-0.001228,
-0.003003,
-0.006103,
-0.0106,
-0.016304,
-0.022954,
-0.030173,
-0.037371,
-0.043786,
-0.048776,
-0.05192,
-0.053026,
-0.052095,
-0.049288,
-0.044878,
-0.03921,
-0.032661,
-0.025612
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
6e-06,
3e-05,
8.8e-05,
0.000197,
0.000364,
0.000586,
0.000858,
0.001176,
0.001522,
0.001866,
0.00218,
0.002442,
0.002639,
0.002762,
0.002813,
0.002793,
0.002712,
0.002578,
0.002401
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000575,
0.00141,
0.004109,
0.00931,
0.017215,
0.02693,
0.037351,
0.047956,
0.057931,
0.06591,
0.07045,
0.07125,
0.068578,
0.062975,
0.055108,
0.04568,
0.035375,
0.024818,
0.014546,
0.004993
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.064846,
0.133247,
0.170612,
0.195601,
0.21944,
0.247432,
0.281404,
0.321711,
0.328328,
0.315338,
0.291447,
0.26227,
0.231412,
0.201161,
0.172915,
0.147479,
0.125254,
0.106364,
0.090738,
0.078177
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00807,
-0.019142,
-0.026262,
-0.029179,
-0.029566,
-0.029024,
-0.028585,
-0.028752,
-0.024732,
-0.016873,
-0.007098,
0.002764,
0.011459,
0.018314,
0.023096,
0.025858,
0.026827,
0.026312,
0.024652,
0.022179
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.4e-05,
7.5e-05,
0.000221,
0.000493,
0.000909,
0.001464,
0.002145,
0.00294,
0.003804,
0.004664,
0.00545,
0.006106,
0.006597,
0.006906,
0.007031,
0.006983,
0.00678,
0.006445,
0.006003
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.032281,
-0.076568,
-0.105049,
-0.116718,
-0.118266,
-0.116095,
-0.114339,
-0.115008,
-0.098928,
-0.067492,
-0.028391,
0.011054,
0.045835,
0.073258,
0.092384,
0.103434,
0.107307,
0.105246,
0.098607,
0.088718
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.001115,
0.001382,
0.002025,
0.002914,
0.003908,
0.004921,
0.005922,
0.006913,
0.007914,
0.008782,
0.009389,
0.00967,
0.00962,
0.009276,
0.0087,
0.007958,
0.007117,
0.006238,
0.005367,
0.004544
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00807,
0.019142,
0.026262,
0.029179,
0.029566,
0.029024,
0.028585,
0.028752,
0.024732,
0.016873,
0.007098,
-0.002764,
-0.011459,
-0.018314,
-0.023096,
-0.025858,
-0.026827,
-0.026312,
-0.024652,
-0.022179
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.188652,
0.204481,
0.202325,
0.184119,
0.153773,
0.114799,
0.069828,
0.020731,
-0.031149,
-0.08013,
-0.121155,
-0.151317,
-0.169762,
-0.177105,
-0.174841,
-0.1649,
-0.149322,
-0.130054,
-0.108828,
-0.087097
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.059241,
0.034708,
0.003142,
-0.031862,
-0.066638,
-0.099139,
-0.128832,
-0.156157,
-0.182022,
-0.203018,
-0.216025,
-0.219625,
-0.21401,
-0.200456,
-0.180804,
-0.157066,
-0.131167,
-0.104795,
-0.079331,
-0.055827
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.022073,
0.015816,
9e-05,
-0.021836,
-0.046483,
-0.07174,
-0.096809,
-0.121741,
-0.147,
-0.169124,
-0.184935,
-0.192839,
-0.192743,
-0.185583,
-0.172851,
-0.156229,
-0.137357,
-0.117693,
-0.098436,
-0.080511
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.020077,
-0.024869,
-0.036452,
-0.05245,
-0.070335,
-0.088575,
-0.106595,
-0.124438,
-0.142445,
-0.158079,
-0.169009,
-0.174062,
-0.173158,
-0.166975,
-0.156595,
-0.143242,
-0.128114,
-0.112275,
-0.096609,
-0.081799
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.166761,
0.369081,
0.497047,
0.595494,
0.699227,
0.824866,
0.978016,
1.1592,
1.228611,
1.220025,
1.163673,
1.079505,
0.981023,
0.87747,
0.775118,
0.67811,
0.589051,
0.50938,
0.439661,
0.379856
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.221999,
-0.466807,
-0.621284,
-0.749405,
-0.889689,
-1.060828,
-1.269369,
-1.516039,
-1.609881,
-1.605599,
-1.539305,
-1.435562,
-1.311474,
-1.179069,
-1.046735,
-0.920171,
-0.803064,
-0.697552,
-0.604584,
-0.524287
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.1028,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 12,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.2866,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.3871,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_cn
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_cn",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "CN",
"name": "China"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001096,
0.001387,
0.001995,
0.002885,
0.00399,
0.005226,
0.006556,
0.007981,
0.008334,
0.007859,
0.006813,
0.005453,
0.003973,
0.002504,
0.00113,
-8.9e-05,
-0.001115,
-0.00192,
-0.002491,
-0.002828
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000615,
0.000811,
0.000847,
0.000927,
0.001094,
0.001316,
0.001564,
0.001826,
0.001655,
0.001249,
0.00073,
0.000192,
-0.000312,
-0.000759,
-0.001142,
-0.001463,
-0.001721,
-0.001914,
-0.002036,
-0.002085
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012912,
-0.01294,
-0.007007,
-0.002948,
-0.000422,
0.000977,
0.001533,
0.001478,
0.006724,
0.009721,
0.010794,
0.010425,
0.009076,
0.007143,
0.004948,
0.002739,
0.000689,
-0.001089,
-0.002531,
-0.003613
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003099,
-0.006273,
-0.007802,
-0.008016,
-0.007353,
-0.006182,
-0.004801,
-0.003434,
-0.00086,
0.00236,
0.005612,
0.008419,
0.010479,
0.011646,
0.011901,
0.011315,
0.010023,
0.00819,
0.005997,
0.003616
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.17934,
-0.229458,
-0.204239,
-0.186064,
-0.174521,
-0.169987,
-0.17283,
-0.182991,
-0.120654,
-0.069196,
-0.028002,
0.003372,
0.025608,
0.039696,
0.04687,
0.048463,
0.045765,
0.03999,
0.032217,
0.023364
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000244,
0.000595,
0.001054,
0.001626,
0.002316,
0.003126,
0.004058,
0.005118,
0.006104,
0.006878,
0.007364,
0.007541,
0.007429,
0.007067,
0.006507,
0.005807,
0.005022,
0.004204,
0.003401,
0.002653
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.015495,
0.039137,
0.068374,
0.100742,
0.135032,
0.170589,
0.207208,
0.244829,
0.178547,
0.121866,
0.074527,
-0.042094,
-0.052395,
-0.058231,
-0.059503,
-0.056574,
-0.050113,
-0.040952,
-0.033159,
-0.027189
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.011713,
0.027724,
0.047555,
0.069993,
0.094133,
0.119382,
0.145519,
0.172496,
0.131371,
0.094578,
0.062468,
0.035486,
0.013801,
-0.002736,
-0.01452,
-0.022102,
-0.026112,
-0.027192,
-0.025966,
-0.023018
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00587,
-0.00559,
-0.004511,
-0.002834,
-0.00078,
0.001449,
0.003678,
0.005765,
0.007609,
0.008969,
0.009698,
0.009746,
0.009146,
0.007984,
0.00638,
0.00447,
0.002391,
0.000274,
-0.001767,
-0.003638
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.002087,
0.002301,
0.002556,
0.002776,
0.002911,
0.002933,
0.002836,
0.002627,
0.002327,
0.001891,
0.001304,
0.000577,
-0.000259,
-0.001157,
-0.002067,
-0.00294,
-0.003734,
-0.004413,
-0.004952,
-0.005336
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001736,
-0.001661,
-0.001491,
-0.001268,
-0.001029,
-0.000797,
-0.000587,
-0.000406,
-0.000256,
-0.000169,
-0.000161,
-0.000236,
-0.000381,
-0.000581,
-0.000812,
-0.001053,
-0.001283,
-0.001484,
-0.001643,
-0.001751
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3e-06,
1.5e-05,
3.7e-05,
6.4e-05,
8.5e-05,
8.7e-05,
6e-05,
-3e-06,
-0.000112,
-0.000269,
-0.000469,
-0.0007,
-0.000951,
-0.001211,
-0.001472,
-0.001726,
-0.001964,
-0.002179,
-0.002362
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.001432,
-0.004053,
-0.006981,
-0.009679,
-0.011869,
-0.013449,
-0.014439,
-0.014932,
-0.014426,
-0.012763,
-0.010039,
-0.006509,
-0.002504,
0.001626,
0.005556,
0.009017,
0.011806,
0.013791,
0.014913
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.007717,
0.013595,
0.017949,
0.021131,
0.023575,
0.025581,
0.027516,
0.029738,
0.025987,
0.019164,
0.010889,
0.002589,
-0.004804,
-0.010757,
-0.01503,
-0.017581,
-0.018504,
-0.017977,
-0.01623,
-0.013536
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.9e-05,
0.000107,
0.000196,
0.000302,
0.00042,
0.000548,
0.000685,
0.000834,
0.000964,
0.00106,
0.001114,
0.001127,
0.001103,
0.001049,
0.000974,
0.000886,
0.000794,
0.000704,
0.000623,
0.000555
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.005402,
0.009517,
0.012564,
0.014791,
0.016503,
0.017907,
0.019261,
0.020817,
0.018191,
0.013415,
0.007622,
0.001812,
-0.003363,
-0.00753,
-0.010521,
-0.012307,
-0.012953,
-0.012584,
-0.011361,
-0.009475
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000192,
-0.000243,
-0.000349,
-0.000506,
-0.000699,
-0.000917,
-0.001151,
-0.001402,
-0.001465,
-0.001383,
-0.001202,
-0.000964,
-0.000706,
-0.000449,
-0.000208,
6e-06,
0.000187,
0.000329,
0.000429,
0.00049
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3e-06,
1.4e-05,
3.5e-05,
6.2e-05,
8.7e-05,
9.7e-05,
8.1e-05,
3e-05,
-6.7e-05,
-0.000216,
-0.000418,
-0.000666,
-0.000951,
-0.001267,
-0.001606,
-0.001961,
-0.002324,
-0.002685,
-0.003036
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.0162,
-0.020814,
-0.018914,
-0.018053,
-0.018282,
-0.019559,
-0.021747,
-0.024709,
-0.02113,
-0.018292,
-0.015838,
-0.013564,
-0.011389,
-0.009307,
-0.007339,
-0.005518,
-0.003879,
-0.002444,
-0.001225,
-0.000225
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.009039,
-0.009058,
-0.004905,
-0.002064,
-0.000295,
0.000684,
0.001073,
0.001035,
0.004707,
0.006804,
0.007556,
0.007298,
0.006353,
0.005,
0.003464,
0.001917,
0.000482,
-0.000762,
-0.001772,
-0.002529
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000658,
0.000834,
0.001206,
0.001755,
0.002443,
0.003218,
0.004054,
0.004949,
0.005202,
0.004954,
0.004352,
0.003548,
0.002657,
0.001759,
0.000908,
0.000143,
-0.00051,
-0.001033,
-0.001414,
-0.001653
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-8.2e-05,
-0.000166,
-0.000274,
-0.000422,
-0.000616,
-0.000854,
-0.001132,
-0.001448,
-0.001711,
-0.001872,
-0.001915,
-0.001846,
-0.001682,
-0.001449,
-0.001172,
-0.000872,
-0.000571,
-0.000284,
-2.6e-05,
0.000172
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
-2e-06,
-1.1e-05,
-3e-05,
-6.4e-05,
-0.000115,
-0.000183,
-0.000266,
-0.000363,
-0.000467,
-0.000571,
-0.000666,
-0.000747,
-0.000809,
-0.000851,
-0.000871,
-0.000871,
-0.000852
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
1e-06,
1e-06,
2e-06,
3e-06,
4e-06,
5e-06,
5e-06,
6e-06,
6e-06,
7e-06,
7e-06,
7e-06,
7e-06
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000639,
0.000809,
0.001163,
0.001682,
0.002326,
0.003047,
0.003822,
0.004653,
0.004859,
0.004582,
0.003972,
0.003179,
0.002317,
0.00146,
0.000659,
-5.2e-05,
-0.00065,
-0.001119,
-0.001452,
-0.001649
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.054164,
0.069224,
0.06159,
0.055853,
0.051794,
0.049562,
0.049391,
0.051367,
0.031214,
0.014215,
0.000518,
-0.009787,
-0.016823,
-0.02091,
-0.022497,
-0.022086,
-0.020168,
-0.017201,
-0.013588,
-0.009668
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000775,
-0.001568,
-0.00195,
-0.002004,
-0.001838,
-0.001546,
-0.0012,
-0.000858,
-0.000215,
0.00059,
0.001403,
0.002105,
0.00262,
0.002912,
0.002975,
0.002829,
0.002506,
0.002048,
0.001499,
0.000904
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
-3e-06,
-1.4e-05,
-3.9e-05,
-8.3e-05,
-0.000149,
-0.000237,
-0.000345,
-0.00047,
-0.000605,
-0.00074,
-0.000863,
-0.000968,
-0.001049,
-0.001103,
-0.00113,
-0.001129,
-0.001105
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003099,
-0.006273,
-0.007802,
-0.008016,
-0.007353,
-0.006182,
-0.004801,
-0.003434,
-0.00086,
0.00236,
0.005612,
0.008419,
0.010479,
0.011646,
0.011901,
0.011315,
0.010023,
0.00819,
0.005997,
0.003616
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000189,
-0.000163,
-0.000111,
-4.7e-05,
2e-05,
8.1e-05,
0.000131,
0.000171,
0.000199,
0.000206,
0.000185,
0.000138,
6.7e-05,
-2.1e-05,
-0.000118,
-0.000218,
-0.000313,
-0.000396,
-0.000465,
-0.000515
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000775,
0.001568,
0.00195,
0.002004,
0.001838,
0.001546,
0.0012,
0.000858,
0.000215,
-0.00059,
-0.001403,
-0.002105,
-0.00262,
-0.002912,
-0.002975,
-0.002829,
-0.002506,
-0.002048,
-0.001499,
-0.000904
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.011153,
0.010621,
0.008571,
0.005385,
0.001482,
-0.002753,
-0.006988,
-0.010954,
-0.014457,
-0.017042,
-0.018426,
-0.018518,
-0.017377,
-0.01517,
-0.012122,
-0.008492,
-0.004542,
-0.00052,
0.003357,
0.006913
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.009391,
-0.010355,
-0.0115,
-0.012493,
-0.013101,
-0.0132,
-0.012761,
-0.011822,
-0.01047,
-0.008511,
-0.005869,
-0.002594,
0.001165,
0.005205,
0.009301,
0.013231,
0.016803,
0.019858,
0.022283,
0.024011
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014236,
0.013623,
0.012226,
0.010401,
0.008438,
0.006535,
0.004813,
0.003332,
0.002103,
0.001386,
0.001324,
0.001932,
0.003128,
0.004764,
0.006662,
0.008637,
0.010521,
0.012169,
0.013472,
0.014355
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.003397,
0.002937,
0.002003,
0.000839,
-0.000355,
-0.001449,
-0.002367,
-0.003077,
-0.003581,
-0.003699,
-0.003334,
-0.002482,
-0.001209,
0.000373,
0.002129,
0.003921,
0.005625,
0.007134,
0.008366,
0.009268
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.097894,
0.080582,
0.024007,
-0.011879,
-0.034207,
-0.047173,
-0.053284,
-0.05431,
-0.096274,
-0.117807,
-0.125486,
-0.123807,
-0.116005,
-0.104495,
-0.091142,
-0.077356,
-0.064135,
-0.052187,
-0.041973,
-0.033741
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.185683,
-0.253202,
-0.259756,
-0.289856,
-0.344233,
-0.423617,
-0.528123,
-0.656973,
-0.672204,
-0.664118,
-0.638391,
-0.600418,
-0.554862,
-0.505494,
-0.455179,
-0.405995,
-0.359377,
-0.316195,
-0.276865,
-0.241517
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0083,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 9,
"CPI_3yr_pp": 0.0054,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.1725,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_in
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_in",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "IN",
"name": "India"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001689,
0.002282,
0.003749,
0.006128,
0.009198,
0.01263,
0.016146,
0.019548,
0.020914,
0.020526,
0.018629,
0.015474,
0.011317,
0.006452,
0.001222,
-0.004005,
-0.008867,
-0.013042,
-0.016279,
-0.018415
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002206,
0.002684,
0.002153,
0.002097,
0.00274,
0.003848,
0.005148,
0.006436,
0.006272,
0.00571,
0.005004,
0.004096,
0.002878,
0.001304,
-0.000589,
-0.002686,
-0.004828,
-0.00684,
-0.008556,
-0.009841
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.019989,
-0.017828,
-0.008054,
-0.003583,
-0.001576,
-0.000599,
-0.000113,
6.7e-05,
0.009602,
0.014095,
0.015435,
0.014868,
0.013147,
0.01075,
0.008012,
0.005185,
0.002461,
-2.3e-05,
-0.002172,
-0.003929
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.014991,
-0.026346,
-0.027782,
-0.024521,
-0.019502,
-0.014034,
-0.008735,
-0.003953,
0.007298,
0.020222,
0.03154,
0.039572,
0.043723,
0.044064,
0.041057,
0.03538,
0.027803,
0.019101,
0.009986,
0.001074
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.181715,
-0.231852,
-0.210159,
-0.205303,
-0.209021,
-0.217859,
-0.230688,
-0.247112,
-0.179763,
-0.125534,
-0.080824,
-0.043927,
-0.013961,
0.009688,
0.027578,
0.040301,
0.048468,
0.052669,
0.05348,
0.051461
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000632,
0.001593,
0.002752,
0.004123,
0.005758,
0.007686,
0.009905,
0.01239,
0.014647,
0.016376,
0.017417,
0.0177,
0.017214,
0.015994,
0.014113,
0.011683,
0.008844,
0.005759,
0.002602,
-0.000456
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.074957,
0.131731,
0.138911,
0.122604,
0.134081,
0.169388,
0.205749,
0.243105,
0.17729,
0.121008,
-0.157698,
-0.19786,
-0.218617,
-0.220321,
-0.205284,
-0.176898,
-0.139017,
-0.095505,
-0.049929,
-0.026998
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020246,
0.047512,
0.082388,
0.123073,
0.167701,
0.214683,
0.263035,
0.312149,
0.246012,
0.185261,
0.130256,
0.081513,
0.039331,
0.0038,
-0.025122,
-0.047564,
-0.063738,
-0.073945,
-0.078599,
-0.078228
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.017483,
-0.014697,
-0.008876,
-0.001461,
0.006551,
0.014454,
0.021716,
0.02794,
0.032857,
0.03542,
0.03528,
0.032586,
0.027774,
0.021416,
0.014119,
0.006458,
-0.001057,
-0.008005,
-0.014069,
-0.019033
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.009048,
0.00944,
0.010042,
0.01042,
0.010409,
0.009995,
0.009226,
0.008176,
0.00693,
0.005211,
0.002973,
0.000324,
-0.002554,
-0.005461,
-0.008205,
-0.010625,
-0.0126,
-0.014049,
-0.014936,
-0.015258
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002999,
-0.002457,
-0.001605,
-0.0007,
0.000133,
0.000843,
0.001414,
0.001845,
0.002147,
0.002154,
0.001822,
0.001192,
0.000345,
-0.000623,
-0.001616,
-0.002548,
-0.003354,
-0.003983,
-0.004407,
-0.004614
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2.1e-05,
0.000114,
0.00033,
0.000695,
0.001198,
0.001799,
0.002444,
0.003069,
0.003602,
0.003967,
0.004091,
0.003911,
0.003381,
0.002486,
0.001242,
-0.0003,
-0.002061,
-0.00394,
-0.005825
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.002274,
-0.006165,
-0.010224,
-0.013834,
-0.01676,
-0.018935,
-0.020375,
-0.021145,
-0.020252,
-0.017479,
-0.013039,
-0.007369,
-0.000996,
0.00554,
0.011736,
0.017166,
0.021497,
0.024501,
0.026055
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.027216,
0.046514,
0.05369,
0.056459,
0.058356,
0.060301,
0.062474,
0.064911,
0.050023,
0.027965,
0.004278,
-0.017831,
-0.03674,
-0.051678,
-0.062323,
-0.068614,
-0.070686,
-0.068828,
-0.063468,
-0.05515
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000136,
0.000369,
0.000637,
0.000919,
0.001211,
0.001513,
0.001825,
0.00215,
0.0024,
0.00254,
0.002561,
0.002472,
0.002288,
0.00203,
0.001718,
0.001375,
0.001022,
0.000677,
0.00036,
8.4e-05
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.019051,
0.03256,
0.037583,
0.039521,
0.040849,
0.042211,
0.043732,
0.045438,
0.035016,
0.019575,
0.002994,
-0.012481,
-0.025718,
-0.036175,
-0.043626,
-0.04803,
-0.04948,
-0.04818,
-0.044428,
-0.038605
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000285,
-0.000385,
-0.00063,
-0.001026,
-0.001536,
-0.002104,
-0.002683,
-0.003242,
-0.003456,
-0.003375,
-0.003043,
-0.002502,
-0.001797,
-0.000979,
-0.000103,
0.000769,
0.001576,
0.002266,
0.002796,
0.003141
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2.7e-05,
0.000148,
0.000436,
0.000935,
0.001643,
0.002522,
0.003509,
0.004526,
0.005477,
0.006255,
0.006752,
0.006861,
0.0065,
0.005614,
0.004194,
0.002276,
-6.3e-05,
-0.002712,
-0.005533
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.0201,
-0.025761,
-0.023875,
-0.024365,
-0.026413,
-0.029522,
-0.033344,
-0.037665,
-0.032669,
-0.028751,
-0.025156,
-0.021511,
-0.017717,
-0.013827,
-0.009969,
-0.006284,
-0.002906,
5.9e-05,
0.002532,
0.004474
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.013992,
-0.01248,
-0.005638,
-0.002508,
-0.001103,
-0.000419,
-7.9e-05,
4.7e-05,
0.006721,
0.009867,
0.010804,
0.010408,
0.009203,
0.007525,
0.005608,
0.003629,
0.001723,
-1.6e-05,
-0.00152,
-0.00275
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001013,
0.001371,
0.002258,
0.003701,
0.005569,
0.007663,
0.009812,
0.011895,
0.012757,
0.012562,
0.011451,
0.00957,
0.007073,
0.004138,
0.000972,
-0.002198,
-0.005154,
-0.0077,
-0.009683,
-0.011002
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-6.3e-05,
-0.000133,
-0.00024,
-0.00041,
-0.000652,
-0.000963,
-0.001328,
-0.001729,
-0.002081,
-0.00233,
-0.002446,
-0.002415,
-0.002236,
-0.001919,
-0.001485,
-0.000963,
-0.00039,
0.000149,
0.000555,
0.000862
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
-3e-06,
-1.2e-05,
-3.4e-05,
-7.6e-05,
-0.000143,
-0.000234,
-0.000351,
-0.000489,
-0.000643,
-0.000802,
-0.000954,
-0.001089,
-0.0012,
-0.00128,
-0.001327,
-0.001342,
-0.001326,
-0.001283
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
2e-06,
4e-06,
6e-06,
1e-05,
1.3e-05,
1.7e-05,
2.2e-05,
2.6e-05,
3e-05,
3.3e-05,
3.5e-05,
3.6e-05,
3.6e-05,
3.6e-05,
3.5e-05
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000929,
0.001255,
0.002062,
0.00337,
0.005059,
0.006947,
0.00888,
0.010751,
0.011503,
0.011289,
0.010246,
0.008511,
0.006224,
0.003549,
0.000672,
-0.002203,
-0.004877,
-0.007173,
-0.008954,
-0.010128
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.054937,
0.070072,
0.063727,
0.062427,
0.063583,
0.066123,
0.069742,
0.074351,
0.0533,
0.035869,
0.02123,
0.009035,
-0.000901,
-0.008738,
-0.014641,
-0.018787,
-0.021356,
-0.022524,
-0.022463,
-0.02135
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003748,
-0.006587,
-0.006946,
-0.00613,
-0.004876,
-0.003508,
-0.002184,
-0.000988,
0.001824,
0.005055,
0.007885,
0.009893,
0.010931,
0.011016,
0.010264,
0.008845,
0.006951,
0.004775,
0.002496,
0.000269
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
-3e-06,
-1.4e-05,
-3.9e-05,
-8.7e-05,
-0.000163,
-0.000267,
-0.000399,
-0.000557,
-0.000732,
-0.000913,
-0.001087,
-0.001241,
-0.001367,
-0.001458,
-0.001512,
-0.001529,
-0.001511,
-0.001461
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.014991,
-0.026346,
-0.027782,
-0.024521,
-0.019502,
-0.014034,
-0.008735,
-0.003953,
0.007298,
0.020222,
0.03154,
0.039572,
0.043723,
0.044064,
0.041057,
0.03538,
0.027803,
0.019101,
0.009986,
0.001074
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-9.5e-05,
2.9e-05,
0.000248,
0.000479,
0.000682,
0.000844,
0.00096,
0.001031,
0.001063,
0.001,
0.000831,
0.000567,
0.000236,
-0.00013,
-0.000498,
-0.00084,
-0.001136,
-0.001367,
-0.001527,
-0.001609
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.003748,
0.006587,
0.006946,
0.00613,
0.004876,
0.003508,
0.002184,
0.000988,
-0.001824,
-0.005055,
-0.007885,
-0.009893,
-0.010931,
-0.011016,
-0.010264,
-0.008845,
-0.006951,
-0.004775,
-0.002496,
-0.000269
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.033218,
0.027924,
0.016864,
0.002775,
-0.012447,
-0.027463,
-0.041261,
-0.053087,
-0.062428,
-0.067298,
-0.067032,
-0.061913,
-0.05277,
-0.04069,
-0.026825,
-0.01227,
0.002008,
0.01521,
0.026732,
0.036163
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.040715,
-0.042482,
-0.045189,
-0.046889,
-0.04684,
-0.044976,
-0.041516,
-0.036794,
-0.031184,
-0.023448,
-0.013379,
-0.001459,
0.011495,
0.024575,
0.036922,
0.047812,
0.056698,
0.063222,
0.067211,
0.068661
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.024592,
0.020144,
0.013159,
0.00574,
-0.001088,
-0.006912,
-0.011594,
-0.015131,
-0.017602,
-0.017659,
-0.014943,
-0.009776,
-0.002826,
0.00511,
0.013248,
0.020897,
0.0275,
0.032659,
0.036135,
0.037832
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001718,
-0.000524,
-0.004466,
-0.00862,
-0.012282,
-0.015188,
-0.017271,
-0.018558,
-0.019127,
-0.018009,
-0.014952,
-0.010199,
-0.004243,
0.002333,
0.008957,
0.015126,
0.02044,
0.024614,
0.027477,
0.02897
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0904,
0.092798,
0.062421,
0.054639,
0.058196,
0.067348,
0.079472,
0.093304,
0.05662,
0.03308,
0.016924,
0.004994,
-0.004388,
-0.012095,
-0.018554,
-0.023979,
-0.028453,
-0.031974,
-0.034512,
-0.036048
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.188058,
-0.255595,
-0.265675,
-0.309095,
-0.378732,
-0.471489,
-0.58598,
-0.721094,
-0.731313,
-0.720456,
-0.691214,
-0.647717,
-0.594431,
-0.535502,
-0.474471,
-0.414157,
-0.356674,
-0.303515,
-0.255602,
-0.213419
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0209,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 9,
"CPI_3yr_pp": 0.0023,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.3121,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_br
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_br",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "BR",
"name": "Brazil"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001842,
0.002567,
0.004553,
0.008205,
0.013623,
0.020441,
0.028094,
0.036092,
0.042109,
0.04599,
0.047486,
0.046546,
0.043268,
0.037907,
0.030865,
0.022668,
0.013908,
0.00518,
-0.002973,
-0.01011
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001768,
0.00314,
0.003777,
0.004383,
0.005687,
0.007925,
0.010954,
0.01448,
0.017014,
0.018654,
0.01957,
0.019797,
0.019253,
0.017844,
0.015555,
0.012483,
0.008823,
0.004837,
0.00081,
-0.002986
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00814,
-0.013363,
-0.012595,
-0.00999,
-0.007474,
-0.005693,
-0.004725,
-0.004417,
-0.000259,
0.00451,
0.008315,
0.010663,
0.011606,
0.011415,
0.010408,
0.008881,
0.007081,
0.005198,
0.003374,
0.001706
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.009768,
-0.024117,
-0.034327,
-0.038336,
-0.037322,
-0.033334,
-0.028224,
-0.023277,
-0.014034,
-0.000683,
0.014336,
0.028357,
0.039435,
0.046554,
0.049494,
0.048596,
0.044533,
0.03813,
0.030236,
0.021632
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.105714,
-0.218446,
-0.285569,
-0.329765,
-0.366275,
-0.403874,
-0.446887,
-0.497089,
-0.4989,
-0.471334,
-0.427326,
-0.375486,
-0.321415,
-0.268673,
-0.219477,
-0.17514,
-0.136329,
-0.103297,
-0.076023,
-0.054296
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000521,
0.001475,
0.002917,
0.004909,
0.007551,
0.010935,
0.015107,
0.020067,
0.025356,
0.030526,
0.035187,
0.03903,
0.041834,
0.043458,
0.043835,
0.042974,
0.040958,
0.037929,
0.034083,
0.029648
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0407,
0.100489,
0.143031,
0.159732,
0.155508,
0.143659,
0.174497,
0.20618,
0.150361,
0.102628,
0.062762,
-0.118155,
-0.164311,
-0.193974,
-0.206227,
-0.202483,
-0.185552,
-0.158877,
-0.125983,
-0.090132
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.022506,
0.054747,
0.095796,
0.144164,
0.198521,
0.257301,
0.319109,
0.382883,
0.310988,
0.246982,
0.190025,
0.139836,
0.096143,
0.058598,
0.026844,
0.000569,
-0.02048,
-0.036524,
-0.047796,
-0.054583
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.028588,
-0.029121,
-0.026192,
-0.020109,
-0.011773,
-0.002178,
0.007808,
0.017523,
0.026507,
0.033828,
0.038679,
0.040667,
0.039826,
0.036525,
0.031324,
0.024848,
0.017713,
0.010469,
0.00357,
-0.002637
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.005894,
0.007034,
0.008487,
0.010088,
0.01158,
0.012775,
0.013589,
0.014029,
0.014163,
0.013828,
0.012862,
0.011216,
0.008966,
0.006277,
0.003356,
0.000414,
-0.002357,
-0.004808,
-0.006829,
-0.008359
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00174,
-0.001428,
-0.000728,
0.00025,
0.001344,
0.002424,
0.003412,
0.004274,
0.005013,
0.005517,
0.005681,
0.005464,
0.004888,
0.004025,
0.002976,
0.001843,
0.000723,
-0.000305,
-0.001183,
-0.001872
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
4.6e-05,
0.000266,
0.00084,
0.001948,
0.003689,
0.00606,
0.008983,
0.012329,
0.015888,
0.019376,
0.022485,
0.024924,
0.026451,
0.026899,
0.026194,
0.024359,
0.021511,
0.017837,
0.013577
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000972,
-0.003348,
-0.006733,
-0.010545,
-0.014281,
-0.0176,
-0.020308,
-0.022328,
-0.023149,
-0.022307,
-0.019579,
-0.01501,
-0.008867,
-0.001561,
0.006421,
0.014578,
0.022438,
0.029594,
0.035724
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.019808,
0.044095,
0.06626,
0.084221,
0.099723,
0.114341,
0.129063,
0.144508,
0.145638,
0.13445,
0.113797,
0.087719,
0.059565,
0.031727,
0.005827,
-0.017043,
-0.03616,
-0.051085,
-0.061618,
-0.067789
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
9.9e-05,
0.00032,
0.000651,
0.001072,
0.001571,
0.002142,
0.002788,
0.00351,
0.004238,
0.004911,
0.00548,
0.005918,
0.006216,
0.006375,
0.006404,
0.006318,
0.006138,
0.005882,
0.005574,
0.005235
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013866,
0.030866,
0.046382,
0.058954,
0.069806,
0.080039,
0.090344,
0.101156,
0.101947,
0.094115,
0.079658,
0.061403,
0.041695,
0.022209,
0.004079,
-0.01193,
-0.025312,
-0.035759,
-0.043133,
-0.047452
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000391,
-0.000523,
-0.000858,
-0.001445,
-0.00228,
-0.003303,
-0.004435,
-0.005606,
-0.006342,
-0.006669,
-0.006616,
-0.006222,
-0.005519,
-0.004547,
-0.003361,
-0.002035,
-0.000658,
0.000681,
0.001897,
0.00292
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
7e-06,
4e-05,
0.00013,
0.000307,
0.000596,
0.001005,
0.001532,
0.002166,
0.002882,
0.003638,
0.004387,
0.005079,
0.005666,
0.006108,
0.006375,
0.006453,
0.006342,
0.006054,
0.005614
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.007477,
-0.015256,
-0.019488,
-0.021541,
-0.022329,
-0.022558,
-0.022772,
-0.023287,
-0.020239,
-0.015334,
-0.009983,
-0.005094,
-0.001139,
0.001717,
0.003493,
0.004311,
0.004341,
0.003765,
0.002756,
0.001465
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.005698,
-0.009354,
-0.008816,
-0.006993,
-0.005231,
-0.003985,
-0.003307,
-0.003092,
-0.000181,
0.003157,
0.005821,
0.007464,
0.008124,
0.00799,
0.007286,
0.006217,
0.004956,
0.003639,
0.002362,
0.001194
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001105,
0.001541,
0.002737,
0.004939,
0.008206,
0.012318,
0.016935,
0.021761,
0.025398,
0.027751,
0.028666,
0.02811,
0.026142,
0.022915,
0.018673,
0.013732,
0.008451,
0.003189,
-0.001729,
-0.006035
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000138,
-0.000296,
-0.000564,
-0.001038,
-0.0018,
-0.002883,
-0.004269,
-0.005909,
-0.00759,
-0.009142,
-0.010418,
-0.011304,
-0.011723,
-0.011635,
-0.011041,
-0.009981,
-0.008529,
-0.006785,
-0.004866,
-0.002891
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
3e-06,
9e-06,
1.9e-05,
3.6e-05,
5.8e-05,
8.5e-05,
0.000117,
0.000151,
0.000186,
0.000217,
0.000244,
0.000264,
0.000277,
0.000282,
0.000281,
0.000272,
0.000258,
0.00024
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001215,
0.001694,
0.003005,
0.005416,
0.008991,
0.013491,
0.018542,
0.023821,
0.027792,
0.030353,
0.031341,
0.03072,
0.028557,
0.025018,
0.020371,
0.014961,
0.009179,
0.003419,
-0.001962,
-0.006673
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.032083,
0.066004,
0.086375,
0.100014,
0.111469,
0.123336,
0.136884,
0.152609,
0.153406,
0.14506,
0.131555,
0.115546,
0.098744,
0.082227,
0.066678,
0.05252,
0.040001,
0.029255,
0.020333,
0.013221
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002442,
-0.006029,
-0.008582,
-0.009584,
-0.00933,
-0.008334,
-0.007056,
-0.005819,
-0.003508,
-0.000171,
0.003584,
0.007089,
0.009859,
0.011638,
0.012374,
0.012149,
0.011133,
0.009533,
0.007559,
0.005408
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
9e-06,
2.7e-05,
6.1e-05,
0.000112,
0.000181,
0.000266,
0.000364,
0.000472,
0.00058,
0.000679,
0.000763,
0.000826,
0.000866,
0.000882,
0.000877,
0.000851,
0.000808,
0.000751
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.009768,
-0.024117,
-0.034327,
-0.038336,
-0.037322,
-0.033334,
-0.028224,
-0.023277,
-0.014034,
-0.000683,
0.014336,
0.028357,
0.039435,
0.046554,
0.049494,
0.048596,
0.044533,
0.03813,
0.030236,
0.021632
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
5.7e-05,
0.000143,
0.000348,
0.000639,
0.000963,
0.001278,
0.00156,
0.001799,
0.001997,
0.002116,
0.002123,
0.002005,
0.001768,
0.001439,
0.001049,
0.000634,
0.000226,
-0.000149,
-0.000471,
-0.000727
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002442,
0.006029,
0.008582,
0.009584,
0.00933,
0.008334,
0.007056,
0.005819,
0.003508,
0.000171,
-0.003584,
-0.007089,
-0.009859,
-0.011638,
-0.012374,
-0.012149,
-0.011133,
-0.009533,
-0.007559,
-0.005408
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.054318,
0.055331,
0.049765,
0.038207,
0.022368,
0.004138,
-0.014835,
-0.033293,
-0.050363,
-0.064273,
-0.073491,
-0.077267,
-0.07567,
-0.069398,
-0.059515,
-0.047211,
-0.033654,
-0.01989,
-0.006784,
0.005009
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.026523,
-0.031652,
-0.03819,
-0.045394,
-0.05211,
-0.057488,
-0.06115,
-0.063132,
-0.063734,
-0.062225,
-0.057878,
-0.050472,
-0.040349,
-0.028247,
-0.015101,
-0.001865,
0.010608,
0.021634,
0.030731,
0.037616
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014271,
0.011709,
0.005969,
-0.002047,
-0.011021,
-0.019881,
-0.027978,
-0.03505,
-0.041104,
-0.045236,
-0.046588,
-0.044803,
-0.040078,
-0.033009,
-0.024402,
-0.015113,
-0.005928,
0.002504,
0.0097,
0.015354
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001028,
-0.002567,
-0.006264,
-0.011497,
-0.017331,
-0.023011,
-0.028088,
-0.032389,
-0.035938,
-0.038088,
-0.038221,
-0.036086,
-0.031832,
-0.0259,
-0.018886,
-0.011417,
-0.00407,
0.002678,
0.008474,
0.013091
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.012178,
0.079452,
0.14208,
0.188146,
0.23043,
0.275675,
0.326785,
0.38463,
0.424679,
0.431514,
0.416661,
0.387936,
0.350755,
0.308967,
0.265391,
0.222106,
0.180605,
0.141961,
0.106918,
0.075952
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.112058,
-0.242189,
-0.341085,
-0.433558,
-0.535987,
-0.657504,
-0.802179,
-0.971071,
-1.05045,
-1.066256,
-1.037715,
-0.979275,
-0.901886,
-0.813863,
-0.721526,
-0.629599,
-0.541471,
-0.459482,
-0.385104,
-0.319176
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0475,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0432,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.3829,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_ru
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_ru",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "RU",
"name": "Russia"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001361,
0.0019,
0.003353,
0.005991,
0.009927,
0.014915,
0.020515,
0.026372,
0.030816,
0.03366,
0.034537,
0.03334,
0.030242,
0.025605,
0.019876,
0.013575,
0.007171,
0.001071,
-0.004398,
-0.009004
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000677,
0.000883,
0.00125,
0.002081,
0.003531,
0.005548,
0.007949,
0.010548,
0.012785,
0.014532,
0.015555,
0.015695,
0.014916,
0.013293,
0.010975,
0.00818,
0.005132,
0.002048,
-0.000879,
-0.003494
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003273,
-0.002669,
-0.001531,
-0.000487,
0.00048,
0.001372,
0.002161,
0.002825,
0.003922,
0.004751,
0.005169,
0.005142,
0.004716,
0.003978,
0.003032,
0.001976,
0.000899,
-0.000125,
-0.001041,
-0.001813
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002454,
-0.004115,
-0.004453,
-0.00364,
-0.001868,
0.000661,
0.003699,
0.006991,
0.010743,
0.014564,
0.017926,
0.020353,
0.021532,
0.021341,
0.019834,
0.017192,
0.013682,
0.009607,
0.005275,
0.000966
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.027271,
-0.035969,
-0.040085,
-0.043909,
-0.048874,
-0.05533,
-0.062947,
-0.071397,
-0.075866,
-0.078427,
-0.078326,
-0.075181,
-0.069131,
-0.060684,
-0.050524,
-0.039431,
-0.028102,
-0.017132,
-0.006993,
0.001974
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000257,
0.000612,
0.001173,
0.002088,
0.003514,
0.005563,
0.008278,
0.011647,
0.015397,
0.019254,
0.022914,
0.026089,
0.02854,
0.030108,
0.030709,
0.030345,
0.029082,
0.027042,
0.024381,
0.021276
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00767,
0.019121,
0.033404,
0.049218,
0.065971,
0.083342,
0.101233,
0.119613,
0.08723,
0.059539,
-0.056017,
-0.063602,
-0.067286,
-0.06669,
-0.06198,
-0.053725,
-0.042755,
-0.030023,
-0.016485,
-0.013284
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.02441,
0.061302,
0.107166,
0.159808,
0.217644,
0.279262,
0.34356,
0.409806,
0.319851,
0.241207,
0.172821,
0.114297,
0.065394,
0.02577,
-0.005134,
-0.027973,
-0.043583,
-0.052879,
-0.056815,
-0.056337
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000647,
0.001002,
0.003337,
0.006134,
0.009134,
0.012059,
0.014643,
0.01666,
0.017935,
0.018303,
0.017683,
0.016102,
0.013679,
0.010602,
0.007096,
0.003394,
-0.000281,
-0.003736,
-0.006814,
-0.009403
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.008392,
0.00836,
0.008231,
0.007964,
0.007536,
0.006931,
0.006147,
0.005191,
0.004077,
0.002809,
0.001403,
-0.000103,
-0.001653,
-0.003179,
-0.004609,
-0.005882,
-0.006943,
-0.007756,
-0.008301,
-0.008574
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-9.7e-05,
2e-06,
0.000156,
0.000329,
0.000489,
0.000607,
0.000663,
0.000642,
0.000535,
0.00033,
2.4e-05,
-0.000372,
-0.000835,
-0.001333,
-0.001833,
-0.0023,
-0.002707,
-0.003031,
-0.003258,
-0.00338
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3.7e-05,
0.000208,
0.000645,
0.001488,
0.002813,
0.004613,
0.006822,
0.009345,
0.012011,
0.01456,
0.01671,
0.018219,
0.01892,
0.018733,
0.017668,
0.015809,
0.013297,
0.010306,
0.00703
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000383,
-0.000994,
-0.001621,
-0.002077,
-0.002198,
-0.001845,
-0.000912,
0.000671,
0.003,
0.00609,
0.009867,
0.014173,
0.018785,
0.023444,
0.027883,
0.03185,
0.035129,
0.037549,
0.038996
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.007493,
0.012038,
0.017549,
0.02495,
0.034682,
0.045999,
0.057839,
0.06966,
0.075171,
0.075892,
0.071398,
0.062354,
0.04999,
0.035701,
0.020751,
0.006406,
-0.006463,
-0.017229,
-0.025516,
-0.031175
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.7e-05,
9.8e-05,
0.000185,
0.00031,
0.000484,
0.000714,
0.001003,
0.001351,
0.001727,
0.002106,
0.002463,
0.002775,
0.003025,
0.003204,
0.003307,
0.003339,
0.003307,
0.003221,
0.003093,
0.002937
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.005245,
0.008427,
0.012284,
0.017465,
0.024277,
0.032199,
0.040487,
0.048762,
0.05262,
0.053125,
0.049978,
0.043648,
0.034993,
0.02499,
0.014526,
0.004484,
-0.004524,
-0.01206,
-0.017861,
-0.021822
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000247,
-0.000208,
4.6e-05,
0.000682,
0.001815,
0.003373,
0.00517,
0.007073,
0.009277,
0.011458,
0.013202,
0.014264,
0.014581,
0.014214,
0.013287,
0.01194,
0.010313,
0.00853,
0.006693,
0.004882
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-05,
5.9e-05,
0.000187,
0.00044,
0.000853,
0.001436,
0.002185,
0.003083,
0.004089,
0.005135,
0.006133,
0.007004,
0.007678,
0.008107,
0.008267,
0.008156,
0.00779,
0.007201,
0.006432
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.002809,
-0.003245,
-0.001975,
0.001292,
0.00687,
0.014337,
0.022851,
0.031786,
0.041363,
0.050155,
0.056619,
0.059899,
0.05986,
0.056859,
0.051505,
0.044488,
0.036479,
0.028069,
0.019742,
0.011874
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002291,
-0.001868,
-0.001071,
-0.000341,
0.000336,
0.000961,
0.001512,
0.001978,
0.002745,
0.003326,
0.003618,
0.0036,
0.003301,
0.002785,
0.002123,
0.001383,
0.000629,
-8.7e-05,
-0.000728,
-0.001269
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000817,
0.001141,
0.002016,
0.003608,
0.005983,
0.008994,
0.012375,
0.015911,
0.018601,
0.020327,
0.020868,
0.020157,
0.018297,
0.015506,
0.012055,
0.008256,
0.004392,
0.000711,
-0.002592,
-0.005376
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000143,
-0.000307,
-0.000582,
-0.001066,
-0.001842,
-0.002947,
-0.004365,
-0.006042,
-0.007768,
-0.00936,
-0.010646,
-0.011485,
-0.01179,
-0.011531,
-0.010735,
-0.009477,
-0.00786,
-0.006008,
-0.004044,
-0.002088
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
4e-06,
1.1e-05,
2.7e-05,
5.3e-05,
8.9e-05,
0.000136,
0.000192,
0.000256,
0.000323,
0.000389,
0.000448,
0.000496,
0.000532,
0.000553,
0.00056,
0.000553,
0.000534,
0.000504
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000749,
0.001045,
0.001844,
0.003295,
0.00546,
0.008203,
0.011283,
0.014505,
0.016949,
0.018513,
0.018995,
0.018337,
0.016633,
0.014083,
0.010932,
0.007466,
0.003944,
0.000589,
-0.002419,
-0.004952
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.008454,
0.011128,
0.01249,
0.013814,
0.015509,
0.017668,
0.020186,
0.022958,
0.024237,
0.024722,
0.024265,
0.022813,
0.020453,
0.01737,
0.013794,
0.009988,
0.006186,
0.002584,
-0.000661,
-0.003439
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000614,
-0.001029,
-0.001113,
-0.00091,
-0.000467,
0.000165,
0.000925,
0.001748,
0.002686,
0.003641,
0.004481,
0.005088,
0.005383,
0.005335,
0.004958,
0.004298,
0.00342,
0.002402,
0.001319,
0.000242
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
1.2e-05,
3.8e-05,
8.9e-05,
0.000173,
0.000292,
0.000445,
0.00063,
0.00084,
0.00106,
0.001275,
0.001468,
0.001627,
0.001744,
0.001813,
0.001835,
0.001812,
0.001749,
0.001652
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002454,
-0.004115,
-0.004453,
-0.00364,
-0.001868,
0.000661,
0.003699,
0.006991,
0.010743,
0.014564,
0.017926,
0.020353,
0.021532,
0.021341,
0.019834,
0.017192,
0.013682,
0.009607,
0.005275,
0.000966
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000253,
0.000273,
0.000306,
0.000342,
0.000372,
0.000387,
0.00038,
0.000348,
0.000289,
0.000199,
7.7e-05,
-7.3e-05,
-0.000243,
-0.000423,
-0.000601,
-0.000766,
-0.00091,
-0.001023,
-0.001103,
-0.001146
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000614,
0.001029,
0.001113,
0.00091,
0.000467,
-0.000165,
-0.000925,
-0.001748,
-0.002686,
-0.003641,
-0.004481,
-0.005088,
-0.005383,
-0.005335,
-0.004958,
-0.004298,
-0.00342,
-0.002402,
-0.001319,
-0.000242
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00123,
-0.001904,
-0.006341,
-0.011655,
-0.017354,
-0.022911,
-0.027823,
-0.031655,
-0.034077,
-0.034775,
-0.033598,
-0.030594,
-0.025989,
-0.020143,
-0.013482,
-0.006449,
0.000534,
0.007098,
0.012947,
0.017866
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.037763,
-0.037621,
-0.037038,
-0.03584,
-0.033912,
-0.031192,
-0.027663,
-0.023358,
-0.018348,
-0.012642,
-0.006314,
0.000466,
0.00744,
0.014304,
0.020743,
0.026467,
0.031242,
0.034902,
0.037355,
0.038583
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000793,
-1.5e-05,
-0.001281,
-0.0027,
-0.004006,
-0.004978,
-0.005438,
-0.005263,
-0.004387,
-0.002705,
-0.000197,
0.003049,
0.006844,
0.01093,
0.015028,
0.018863,
0.022201,
0.024858,
0.026715,
0.027716
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.00455,
-0.004907,
-0.005511,
-0.006165,
-0.006695,
-0.006958,
-0.006842,
-0.006271,
-0.005206,
-0.00358,
-0.001382,
0.001318,
0.004379,
0.007615,
0.010819,
0.013795,
0.016371,
0.018419,
0.019853,
0.020635
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.109961,
-0.155898,
-0.151043,
-0.147721,
-0.145426,
-0.14529,
-0.14889,
-0.15724,
-0.112887,
-0.072488,
-0.038299,
-0.011983,
0.005889,
0.015678,
0.018355,
0.015268,
0.007821,
-0.002626,
-0.014849,
-0.027801
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.033615,
-0.059712,
-0.095601,
-0.147702,
-0.218586,
-0.308959,
-0.41824,
-0.545379,
-0.627416,
-0.673349,
-0.688715,
-0.678971,
-0.649601,
-0.605874,
-0.552573,
-0.493889,
-0.433244,
-0.373317,
-0.316075,
-0.262906
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0345,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": 0.0179,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.4098,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_au
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_au",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "AU",
"name": "Australia"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000696,
0.000986,
0.001744,
0.003068,
0.004979,
0.007306,
0.009856,
0.012528,
0.014527,
0.015748,
0.016081,
0.015598,
0.014437,
0.012746,
0.010675,
0.008371,
0.005973,
0.003607,
0.001384,
-0.000608
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000777,
0.001471,
0.001872,
0.00218,
0.002665,
0.003426,
0.00444,
0.005654,
0.006519,
0.007022,
0.007194,
0.007098,
0.006777,
0.006256,
0.005552,
0.004687,
0.003697,
0.002628,
0.001532,
0.000463
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.008203,
-0.013468,
-0.012801,
-0.010052,
-0.007204,
-0.005093,
-0.003951,
-0.003703,
-5.6e-05,
0.004127,
0.007442,
0.009427,
0.010115,
0.009757,
0.008664,
0.007133,
0.005406,
0.003672,
0.00206,
0.000655
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003937,
-0.010279,
-0.015757,
-0.0191,
-0.020279,
-0.01984,
-0.018484,
-0.016838,
-0.013399,
-0.008065,
-0.001565,
0.005148,
0.011235,
0.016113,
0.019468,
0.021224,
0.021475,
0.020431,
0.018367,
0.015577
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.067792,
-0.140892,
-0.186391,
-0.216053,
-0.238963,
-0.261009,
-0.28559,
-0.31473,
-0.3157,
-0.298427,
-0.269628,
-0.234433,
-0.196826,
-0.159783,
-0.125377,
-0.094917,
-0.069109,
-0.048188,
-0.032045,
-0.02034
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000139,
0.000402,
0.000823,
0.001423,
0.002226,
0.003244,
0.004476,
0.005921,
0.007467,
0.008991,
0.010376,
0.011536,
0.012412,
0.01298,
0.013235,
0.01319,
0.012874,
0.012324,
0.011583,
0.010697
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.024609,
0.064241,
0.098481,
0.119372,
0.148583,
0.187708,
0.228002,
0.269398,
0.196465,
0.134096,
0.082006,
0.040048,
-0.07022,
-0.100703,
-0.121676,
-0.132648,
-0.134216,
-0.127695,
-0.114792,
-0.097358
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.01429,
0.035543,
0.06216,
0.092857,
0.126664,
0.162604,
0.200007,
0.238569,
0.187644,
0.142879,
0.103763,
0.070361,
0.042697,
0.020578,
0.003603,
-0.008767,
-0.017142,
-0.022145,
-0.024375,
-0.024389
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.015564,
-0.016747,
-0.01647,
-0.014696,
-0.011665,
-0.007726,
-0.003232,
0.001512,
0.00627,
0.010629,
0.014191,
0.016683,
0.017986,
0.018124,
0.017222,
0.015472,
0.0131,
0.010339,
0.007403,
0.004482
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
7.5e-05,
0.000889,
0.001847,
0.002908,
0.003976,
0.004959,
0.005798,
0.006473,
0.006992,
0.007292,
0.0073,
0.006977,
0.006329,
0.005403,
0.004267,
0.003006,
0.001705,
0.00044,
-0.000723,
-0.001735
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001244,
-0.00115,
-0.000878,
-0.000454,
6.7e-05,
0.000629,
0.001189,
0.001722,
0.002219,
0.002633,
0.002915,
0.003036,
0.002988,
0.002786,
0.00246,
0.002048,
0.001589,
0.00112,
0.000674,
0.000276
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3.4e-05,
0.000178,
0.000519,
0.001133,
0.002034,
0.003181,
0.004517,
0.005985,
0.007463,
0.008788,
0.009823,
0.010474,
0.010691,
0.010464,
0.009815,
0.008793,
0.00747,
0.005927,
0.004257
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000894,
-0.003108,
-0.00634,
-0.010095,
-0.013938,
-0.017574,
-0.020863,
-0.023783,
-0.025948,
-0.026986,
-0.02669,
-0.025048,
-0.022209,
-0.018427,
-0.014012,
-0.00928,
-0.004528,
-8e-06,
0.004079
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.007856,
0.018475,
0.029304,
0.038636,
0.04641,
0.052774,
0.058199,
0.063437,
0.063304,
0.058032,
0.048379,
0.036164,
0.023083,
0.010454,
-0.000829,
-0.010234,
-0.017516,
-0.022641,
-0.025723,
-0.026971
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.9e-05,
0.000132,
0.000278,
0.000471,
0.000703,
0.000967,
0.001258,
0.001575,
0.001892,
0.002182,
0.002424,
0.002605,
0.00272,
0.002773,
0.002768,
0.002717,
0.00263,
0.002516,
0.002388,
0.002253
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.005499,
0.012932,
0.020513,
0.027045,
0.032487,
0.036942,
0.040739,
0.044406,
0.044313,
0.040623,
0.033866,
0.025315,
0.016158,
0.007317,
-0.000581,
-0.007164,
-0.012261,
-0.015849,
-0.018006,
-0.01888
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000135,
-0.000177,
-0.00027,
-0.000412,
-0.000592,
-0.00079,
-0.000994,
-0.001207,
-0.001285,
-0.001244,
-0.001112,
-0.000928,
-0.000725,
-0.00052,
-0.000321,
-0.000134,
3.6e-05,
0.000188,
0.000317,
0.000419
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
7e-06,
3.8e-05,
0.000114,
0.000259,
0.000484,
0.000792,
0.001177,
0.001632,
0.002137,
0.002654,
0.003148,
0.003587,
0.003945,
0.004202,
0.004348,
0.004379,
0.004296,
0.004108,
0.003829
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.007503,
-0.015464,
-0.020143,
-0.022685,
-0.023999,
-0.024811,
-0.025673,
-0.026945,
-0.025056,
-0.021343,
-0.016874,
-0.012399,
-0.008391,
-0.005104,
-0.002636,
-0.000977,
-5.3e-05,
0.00025,
6e-05,
-0.000493
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.005742,
-0.009428,
-0.008961,
-0.007036,
-0.005043,
-0.003565,
-0.002766,
-0.002592,
-3.9e-05,
0.002889,
0.005209,
0.006599,
0.00708,
0.00683,
0.006065,
0.004993,
0.003784,
0.00257,
0.001442,
0.000459
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000418,
0.000593,
0.001051,
0.001853,
0.003013,
0.004427,
0.005976,
0.007601,
0.008822,
0.009574,
0.009788,
0.009505,
0.008807,
0.007784,
0.006528,
0.005129,
0.00367,
0.00223,
0.000875,
-0.000339
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000108,
-0.000234,
-0.000446,
-0.00081,
-0.001379,
-0.002167,
-0.003153,
-0.004306,
-0.005482,
-0.006552,
-0.007407,
-0.007973,
-0.008217,
-0.008139,
-0.007759,
-0.007116,
-0.006263,
-0.005257,
-0.004157,
-0.003023
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
4e-06,
1.1e-05,
2.4e-05,
4.3e-05,
6.9e-05,
9.9e-05,
0.000133,
0.00017,
0.000205,
0.000236,
0.000261,
0.000278,
0.000287,
0.000288,
0.000282,
0.00027,
0.000252,
0.000228
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000498,
0.000705,
0.001247,
0.002194,
0.00356,
0.005224,
0.007047,
0.008958,
0.010387,
0.01126,
0.011498,
0.011153,
0.010322,
0.009113,
0.007633,
0.005986,
0.004271,
0.002579,
0.00099,
-0.000435
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020442,
0.042383,
0.056025,
0.064859,
0.071582,
0.077963,
0.085055,
0.093496,
0.093374,
0.087737,
0.078696,
0.067863,
0.056463,
0.04538,
0.03521,
0.026314,
0.018869,
0.01292,
0.008412,
0.005226
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000984,
-0.00257,
-0.003939,
-0.004775,
-0.00507,
-0.00496,
-0.004621,
-0.00421,
-0.00335,
-0.002016,
-0.000391,
0.001287,
0.002809,
0.004028,
0.004867,
0.005306,
0.005369,
0.005108,
0.004592,
0.003894
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
1e-05,
2.8e-05,
6.2e-05,
0.000111,
0.000176,
0.000253,
0.000342,
0.000436,
0.000526,
0.000606,
0.00067,
0.000714,
0.000737,
0.00074,
0.000724,
0.000692,
0.000647,
0.000584
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003937,
-0.010279,
-0.015757,
-0.0191,
-0.020279,
-0.01984,
-0.018484,
-0.016838,
-0.013399,
-0.008065,
-0.001565,
0.005148,
0.011235,
0.016113,
0.019468,
0.021224,
0.021475,
0.020431,
0.018367,
0.015577
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
7.9e-05,
0.000112,
0.000198,
0.00033,
0.000491,
0.000662,
0.00083,
0.000987,
0.001131,
0.001246,
0.001316,
0.001332,
0.001292,
0.001201,
0.001069,
0.000908,
0.000732,
0.000554,
0.000383,
0.000229
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000984,
0.00257,
0.003939,
0.004775,
0.00507,
0.00496,
0.004621,
0.00421,
0.00335,
0.002016,
0.000391,
-0.001287,
-0.002809,
-0.004028,
-0.004867,
-0.005306,
-0.005369,
-0.005108,
-0.004592,
-0.003894
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.029572,
0.031819,
0.031294,
0.027923,
0.022164,
0.014679,
0.006141,
-0.002873,
-0.011913,
-0.020195,
-0.026963,
-0.031697,
-0.034174,
-0.034436,
-0.032722,
-0.029397,
-0.024891,
-0.019643,
-0.014066,
-0.008517
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000336,
-0.003998,
-0.008312,
-0.013088,
-0.017892,
-0.022316,
-0.026093,
-0.029127,
-0.031466,
-0.032815,
-0.03285,
-0.031396,
-0.028483,
-0.024311,
-0.019201,
-0.013527,
-0.007671,
-0.00198,
0.003254,
0.007809
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.010203,
0.009428,
0.007202,
0.003723,
-0.000552,
-0.005162,
-0.009754,
-0.014123,
-0.018196,
-0.02159,
-0.023905,
-0.024892,
-0.024498,
-0.022845,
-0.020175,
-0.016795,
-0.013031,
-0.009188,
-0.005529,
-0.002264
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001422,
-0.002008,
-0.003558,
-0.005942,
-0.008838,
-0.01192,
-0.014944,
-0.017771,
-0.020354,
-0.022423,
-0.023692,
-0.023983,
-0.023263,
-0.021622,
-0.019242,
-0.016349,
-0.013182,
-0.009966,
-0.006895,
-0.004123
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.046157,
-0.031983,
0.003969,
0.029613,
0.051109,
0.071842,
0.093373,
0.116578,
0.156399,
0.177921,
0.18493,
0.180566,
0.167765,
0.149212,
0.127231,
0.103728,
0.08019,
0.057715,
0.037051,
0.018669
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.074136,
-0.164635,
-0.241908,
-0.319846,
-0.408675,
-0.514638,
-0.640883,
-0.788712,
-0.86725,
-0.893349,
-0.880017,
-0.838223,
-0.777297,
-0.704973,
-0.627425,
-0.549375,
-0.474251,
-0.404372,
-0.341127,
-0.285221
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0161,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0435,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2386,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_kr
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_kr",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "KR",
"name": "South Korea"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001116,
0.001586,
0.002838,
0.005055,
0.008251,
0.012146,
0.016432,
0.02094,
0.024373,
0.026601,
0.0275,
0.027177,
0.025772,
0.023429,
0.020311,
0.016613,
0.012561,
0.008393,
0.00434,
0.000607
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001874,
0.003509,
0.004021,
0.0041,
0.004533,
0.005636,
0.007368,
0.009566,
0.010811,
0.01132,
0.011439,
0.011391,
0.011207,
0.010807,
0.010097,
0.009026,
0.007603,
0.005897,
0.004015,
0.002082
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.018044,
-0.029769,
-0.027523,
-0.021413,
-0.016161,
-0.01326,
-0.012683,
-0.013836,
-0.005569,
0.004397,
0.012424,
0.017409,
0.019507,
0.01936,
0.017689,
0.015128,
0.012169,
0.009162,
0.006336,
0.003831
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.010827,
-0.027472,
-0.040298,
-0.046918,
-0.048535,
-0.04737,
-0.045428,
-0.044053,
-0.037648,
-0.025843,
-0.010827,
0.004726,
0.018657,
0.029622,
0.037039,
0.040899,
0.041573,
0.039638,
0.035749,
0.030554
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.09497,
-0.195487,
-0.248934,
-0.278035,
-0.298195,
-0.318928,
-0.345503,
-0.380202,
-0.36832,
-0.330457,
-0.281419,
-0.230794,
-0.18418,
-0.1444,
-0.112485,
-0.088373,
-0.071383,
-0.06054,
-0.054765,
-0.052996
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000305,
0.000917,
0.001853,
0.003116,
0.004727,
0.006712,
0.009085,
0.011864,
0.01482,
0.017715,
0.020339,
0.022549,
0.024258,
0.025424,
0.026036,
0.026107,
0.025673,
0.024786,
0.023514,
0.021934
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.054133,
0.137358,
0.20149,
0.234591,
0.242674,
0.236852,
0.227138,
0.220265,
0.188238,
0.129217,
0.066917,
0.032679,
-0.093285,
-0.148112,
-0.185193,
-0.204494,
-0.207865,
-0.198189,
-0.178743,
-0.152768
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.018477,
0.045316,
0.079367,
0.119177,
0.163518,
0.210988,
0.26058,
0.311797,
0.250576,
0.196461,
0.148836,
0.107809,
0.073338,
0.045076,
0.022467,
0.004877,
-0.008319,
-0.017694,
-0.023758,
-0.02697
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.038863,
-0.042215,
-0.042012,
-0.038328,
-0.031872,
-0.023473,
-0.013849,
-0.003541,
0.007078,
0.016981,
0.025166,
0.030988,
0.034216,
0.034965,
0.033575,
0.030507,
0.026261,
0.021319,
0.016106,
0.010973
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.005338,
-0.003565,
-0.001266,
0.001374,
0.004066,
0.006595,
0.00886,
0.010866,
0.012683,
0.014102,
0.014888,
0.014912,
0.014176,
0.01278,
0.010888,
0.00869,
0.006369,
0.004087,
0.001975,
0.000127
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003367,
-0.003065,
-0.00232,
-0.001231,
4.3e-05,
0.001372,
0.002686,
0.003961,
0.005208,
0.0063,
0.0071,
0.007525,
0.007562,
0.007248,
0.006658,
0.00588,
0.005001,
0.0041,
0.003243,
0.002477
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3.9e-05,
0.000209,
0.000623,
0.001386,
0.00253,
0.004029,
0.005829,
0.007866,
0.010009,
0.01208,
0.013914,
0.015375,
0.01635,
0.016765,
0.016581,
0.015805,
0.014483,
0.012701,
0.010568
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.001978,
-0.006887,
-0.013964,
-0.022111,
-0.030481,
-0.038606,
-0.046345,
-0.053769,
-0.059907,
-0.063774,
-0.06478,
-0.062799,
-0.05808,
-0.051116,
-0.042523,
-0.032944,
-0.022986,
-0.013173,
-0.003933
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.019365,
0.046133,
0.069711,
0.086915,
0.099435,
0.109502,
0.119208,
0.130226,
0.129396,
0.116925,
0.095716,
0.070299,
0.044341,
0.020275,
-0.00053,
-0.017461,
-0.030399,
-0.039513,
-0.045134,
-0.047676
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
9.7e-05,
0.000327,
0.000676,
0.001111,
0.001608,
0.002155,
0.002751,
0.003402,
0.004049,
0.004634,
0.005113,
0.005464,
0.005686,
0.005787,
0.005785,
0.005697,
0.005545,
0.005348,
0.005122,
0.004884
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013556,
0.032293,
0.048798,
0.060841,
0.069604,
0.076651,
0.083446,
0.091158,
0.090578,
0.081847,
0.067001,
0.04921,
0.031039,
0.014192,
-0.000371,
-0.012223,
-0.021279,
-0.027659,
-0.031593,
-0.033373
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000202,
-0.000288,
-0.000518,
-0.000925,
-0.001514,
-0.002232,
-0.003023,
-0.003855,
-0.004493,
-0.00491,
-0.005083,
-0.005029,
-0.004773,
-0.004343,
-0.003767,
-0.003085,
-0.002336,
-0.001566,
-0.000817,
-0.000127
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.3e-05,
7.3e-05,
0.000224,
0.000511,
0.00096,
0.001578,
0.002358,
0.003289,
0.004335,
0.005435,
0.006527,
0.00755,
0.008448,
0.009171,
0.009683,
0.00996,
0.009993,
0.009791,
0.009374
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.018172,
-0.037538,
-0.048651,
-0.05619,
-0.063298,
-0.071571,
-0.08156,
-0.093367,
-0.096281,
-0.093634,
-0.08747,
-0.079203,
-0.069856,
-0.060168,
-0.050675,
-0.041751,
-0.033648,
-0.026521,
-0.020452,
-0.015461
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012631,
-0.020838,
-0.019266,
-0.014989,
-0.011313,
-0.009282,
-0.008878,
-0.009686,
-0.003898,
0.003078,
0.008697,
0.012186,
0.013655,
0.013552,
0.012382,
0.010589,
0.008518,
0.006413,
0.004436,
0.002681
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00067,
0.000954,
0.001714,
0.003062,
0.005011,
0.007389,
0.010008,
0.012762,
0.014873,
0.016255,
0.016826,
0.016647,
0.015801,
0.014375,
0.012472,
0.010212,
0.007734,
0.005184,
0.002705,
0.00042
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000117,
-0.000254,
-0.000489,
-0.000897,
-0.001539,
-0.00243,
-0.003548,
-0.004859,
-0.006204,
-0.007446,
-0.008472,
-0.009208,
-0.009612,
-0.009669,
-0.009384,
-0.008783,
-0.007906,
-0.006811,
-0.005564,
-0.004237
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
4e-06,
1e-05,
2.1e-05,
3.6e-05,
5.4e-05,
7.4e-05,
9.6e-05,
0.000118,
0.000136,
0.00015,
0.000157,
0.000159,
0.000155,
0.000148,
0.000137,
0.000119,
9.3e-05,
6.4e-05
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000675,
0.00096,
0.001717,
0.003058,
0.004992,
0.007348,
0.009941,
0.012668,
0.014746,
0.016094,
0.016637,
0.016442,
0.015592,
0.014175,
0.012288,
0.010051,
0.007599,
0.005078,
0.002626,
0.000367
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.028859,
0.059099,
0.075277,
0.08416,
0.090303,
0.096528,
0.104452,
0.114806,
0.110807,
0.098778,
0.083369,
0.067632,
0.053307,
0.041224,
0.03164,
0.024477,
0.01949,
0.016361,
0.014761,
0.014373
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002707,
-0.006868,
-0.010075,
-0.01173,
-0.012134,
-0.011843,
-0.011357,
-0.011013,
-0.009412,
-0.006461,
-0.002707,
0.001181,
0.004664,
0.007406,
0.00926,
0.010225,
0.010393,
0.009909,
0.008937,
0.007638
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
1e-05,
2.8e-05,
5.8e-05,
0.0001,
0.000151,
0.000207,
0.000268,
0.000328,
0.000379,
0.000416,
0.000437,
0.000442,
0.000432,
0.00041,
0.000379,
0.00033,
0.00026,
0.000178
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.010827,
-0.027472,
-0.040298,
-0.046918,
-0.048535,
-0.04737,
-0.045428,
-0.044053,
-0.037648,
-0.025843,
-0.010827,
0.004726,
0.018657,
0.029622,
0.037039,
0.040899,
0.041573,
0.039638,
0.035749,
0.030554
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-4e-05,
5.1e-05,
0.000283,
0.000625,
0.001024,
0.001439,
0.001845,
0.002237,
0.002618,
0.002946,
0.003175,
0.003278,
0.003251,
0.003106,
0.002868,
0.002567,
0.00223,
0.001886,
0.001555,
0.001254
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002707,
0.006868,
0.010075,
0.01173,
0.012134,
0.011843,
0.011357,
0.011013,
0.009412,
0.006461,
0.002707,
-0.001181,
-0.004664,
-0.007406,
-0.00926,
-0.010225,
-0.010393,
-0.009909,
-0.008937,
-0.007638
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.073839,
0.080209,
0.079822,
0.072823,
0.060557,
0.044599,
0.026313,
0.006728,
-0.013448,
-0.032263,
-0.047815,
-0.058877,
-0.065011,
-0.066433,
-0.063792,
-0.057963,
-0.049896,
-0.040506,
-0.030602,
-0.02085
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.024022,
0.01604,
0.005697,
-0.006182,
-0.018299,
-0.029677,
-0.039871,
-0.048897,
-0.057076,
-0.063458,
-0.066994,
-0.067106,
-0.06379,
-0.057508,
-0.048997,
-0.039105,
-0.02866,
-0.018392,
-0.008886,
-0.000569
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.027612,
0.025131,
0.019021,
0.010094,
-0.000349,
-0.011254,
-0.022024,
-0.032477,
-0.042706,
-0.051661,
-0.058219,
-0.061709,
-0.062007,
-0.059437,
-0.054599,
-0.048214,
-0.041005,
-0.03362,
-0.02659,
-0.020312
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000725,
-0.000915,
-0.005098,
-0.011249,
-0.018435,
-0.025898,
-0.033216,
-0.040264,
-0.04712,
-0.05302,
-0.057147,
-0.05901,
-0.058521,
-0.055916,
-0.051633,
-0.046199,
-0.040145,
-0.033944,
-0.027989,
-0.022572
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.002558,
0.046897,
0.092813,
0.121981,
0.146664,
0.173911,
0.207241,
0.247794,
0.275317,
0.274759,
0.258719,
0.235435,
0.209915,
0.184992,
0.162127,
0.141948,
0.1246,
0.109972,
0.097828,
0.087885
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.101314,
-0.21923,
-0.30445,
-0.381828,
-0.467907,
-0.572558,
-0.700796,
-0.854184,
-0.91987,
-0.925379,
-0.891808,
-0.834583,
-0.76465,
-0.68959,
-0.614534,
-0.542831,
-0.476525,
-0.416725,
-0.363847,
-0.317876
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0275,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.124,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.3118,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_mx
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_mx",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "MX",
"name": "Mexico"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002057,
0.003669,
0.008645,
0.018076,
0.032176,
0.049469,
0.068172,
0.087352,
0.104421,
0.117699,
0.125269,
0.126648,
0.1221,
0.112338,
0.098378,
0.081415,
0.062704,
0.043452,
0.024729,
0.007414
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.005713,
0.010184,
0.011041,
0.012269,
0.0167,
0.024502,
0.03452,
0.04563,
0.053155,
0.058297,
0.0618,
0.063691,
0.063598,
0.061187,
0.0564,
0.049479,
0.040891,
0.031236,
0.021148,
0.011223
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.041038,
-0.060412,
-0.047469,
-0.033951,
-0.027482,
-0.027069,
-0.030123,
-0.034644,
-0.012913,
0.009346,
0.024663,
0.032784,
0.035488,
0.034642,
0.031652,
0.027492,
0.02286,
0.018203,
0.013789,
0.009781
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.036934,
-0.085499,
-0.112931,
-0.120998,
-0.119725,
-0.11694,
-0.116581,
-0.119797,
-0.102377,
-0.067057,
-0.024123,
0.017441,
0.052174,
0.077721,
0.093776,
0.101198,
0.101446,
0.096169,
0.086964,
0.07526
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.166144,
-0.337676,
-0.424273,
-0.482483,
-0.542688,
-0.616972,
-0.70786,
-0.814355,
-0.826973,
-0.788646,
-0.725274,
-0.651732,
-0.57639,
-0.503962,
-0.437232,
-0.377767,
-0.326177,
-0.282549,
-0.246659,
-0.218067
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001157,
0.003573,
0.007255,
0.012431,
0.01957,
0.029034,
0.040951,
0.055307,
0.071125,
0.087275,
0.102614,
0.116195,
0.127301,
0.135437,
0.14032,
0.141865,
0.140173,
0.135501,
0.128233,
0.118841
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.153891,
0.356248,
0.470545,
0.504157,
0.498856,
0.487251,
0.485755,
0.499153,
0.426569,
0.279405,
0.100513,
-0.07267,
-0.21739,
-0.323837,
-0.390732,
-0.421659,
-0.422693,
-0.400704,
-0.36235,
-0.313582
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.019389,
0.04795,
0.087804,
0.139,
0.200649,
0.269399,
0.341818,
0.416161,
0.376946,
0.341043,
0.304714,
0.266941,
0.227804,
0.18788,
0.148026,
0.109257,
0.072634,
0.039153,
0.009645,
-0.015286
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.103676,
-0.111856,
-0.109551,
-0.09845,
-0.081145,
-0.059658,
-0.035325,
-0.00903,
0.018594,
0.044072,
0.064475,
0.078361,
0.085588,
0.086878,
0.083367,
0.076282,
0.066804,
0.055982,
0.044692,
0.033634
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.016041,
-0.01107,
-0.004313,
0.003189,
0.010507,
0.017237,
0.023376,
0.02913,
0.034762,
0.03932,
0.041985,
0.042443,
0.040821,
0.037508,
0.032999,
0.027799,
0.022358,
0.017046,
0.012143,
0.007843
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.005888,
-0.004811,
-0.002466,
0.000611,
0.003924,
0.007231,
0.010482,
0.013729,
0.017051,
0.019923,
0.021891,
0.022756,
0.022549,
0.021438,
0.01965,
0.017424,
0.014978,
0.012495,
0.010121,
0.00796
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.000198,
0.001071,
0.003226,
0.007231,
0.013313,
0.021359,
0.03111,
0.042278,
0.05423,
0.066008,
0.076643,
0.085304,
0.091364,
0.094439,
0.09439,
0.09131,
0.085484,
0.077347,
0.067426
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.00483,
-0.015853,
-0.030258,
-0.045527,
-0.060327,
-0.074229,
-0.08727,
-0.099642,
-0.108433,
-0.111254,
-0.107083,
-0.09609,
-0.079221,
-0.057837,
-0.033454,
-0.007567,
0.018461,
0.043461,
0.066488
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.06116,
0.140143,
0.198612,
0.241627,
0.283952,
0.331492,
0.38485,
0.443979,
0.46365,
0.444165,
0.395319,
0.330668,
0.259881,
0.188953,
0.121498,
0.05976,
0.005131,
-0.041518,
-0.079719,
-0.109344
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000306,
0.001007,
0.002,
0.003208,
0.004627,
0.006285,
0.008209,
0.010429,
0.012747,
0.014968,
0.016945,
0.018598,
0.019897,
0.020842,
0.02145,
0.021749,
0.021774,
0.021567,
0.021168,
0.020621
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.042812,
0.0981,
0.139028,
0.169139,
0.198766,
0.232045,
0.269395,
0.310785,
0.324555,
0.310915,
0.276723,
0.231467,
0.181917,
0.132267,
0.085049,
0.041832,
0.003592,
-0.029063,
-0.055804,
-0.076541
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000347,
-0.000603,
-0.001379,
-0.002834,
-0.004988,
-0.007605,
-0.010415,
-0.013287,
-0.015796,
-0.017703,
-0.018742,
-0.018866,
-0.018122,
-0.016618,
-0.0145,
-0.011941,
-0.009126,
-0.006233,
-0.003424,
-0.000832
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.000176,
0.000967,
0.002969,
0.006785,
0.012762,
0.020953,
0.031268,
0.04356,
0.057352,
0.07182,
0.086053,
0.099181,
0.110452,
0.119286,
0.125301,
0.128321,
0.128362,
0.125607,
0.120372
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.031802,
-0.06441,
-0.080797,
-0.091565,
-0.102344,
-0.115403,
-0.131338,
-0.150098,
-0.150718,
-0.141603,
-0.128046,
-0.113143,
-0.098562,
-0.085133,
-0.07325,
-0.063065,
-0.054559,
-0.047643,
-0.042195,
-0.038076
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.028726,
-0.042288,
-0.033229,
-0.023766,
-0.019237,
-0.018948,
-0.021086,
-0.024251,
-0.009039,
0.006542,
0.017264,
0.022949,
0.024841,
0.02425,
0.022156,
0.019244,
0.016002,
0.012742,
0.009652,
0.006847
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001234,
0.002203,
0.005193,
0.010861,
0.019337,
0.029733,
0.040979,
0.052513,
0.06278,
0.07077,
0.075329,
0.076165,
0.073434,
0.067567,
0.059175,
0.048976,
0.037725,
0.026149,
0.014891,
0.004479
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-7.7e-05,
-0.000195,
-0.000471,
-0.001031,
-0.00198,
-0.00334,
-0.005061,
-0.007072,
-0.00922,
-0.011328,
-0.013194,
-0.014645,
-0.015562,
-0.015884,
-0.015602,
-0.014755,
-0.013418,
-0.011693,
-0.009697,
-0.007551
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3e-06,
1.6e-05,
4.7e-05,
0.000104,
0.000191,
0.000307,
0.000448,
0.000612,
0.000789,
0.000964,
0.001123,
0.001254,
0.00135,
0.001409,
0.00143,
0.001416,
0.00137,
0.001299,
0.001207
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001244,
0.00222,
0.00523,
0.010936,
0.019467,
0.029929,
0.041244,
0.052848,
0.063174,
0.071208,
0.075788,
0.076622,
0.07387,
0.067964,
0.059519,
0.049256,
0.037936,
0.026288,
0.014961,
0.004485
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.050358,
0.102167,
0.129186,
0.148568,
0.169428,
0.195066,
0.2259,
0.261475,
0.268339,
0.259096,
0.241224,
0.219171,
0.195524,
0.171828,
0.149091,
0.127989,
0.10893,
0.092165,
0.077831,
0.065966
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.009233,
-0.021375,
-0.028233,
-0.030249,
-0.029931,
-0.029235,
-0.029145,
-0.029949,
-0.025594,
-0.016764,
-0.006031,
0.00436,
0.013043,
0.01943,
0.023444,
0.0253,
0.025362,
0.024042,
0.021741,
0.018815
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.1e-05,
5.5e-05,
0.000162,
0.00036,
0.00066,
0.001059,
0.001545,
0.00211,
0.002721,
0.003325,
0.003872,
0.004323,
0.004655,
0.004857,
0.00493,
0.004881,
0.004725,
0.004479,
0.004161
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.036934,
-0.085499,
-0.112931,
-0.120998,
-0.119725,
-0.11694,
-0.116581,
-0.119797,
-0.102377,
-0.067057,
-0.024123,
0.017441,
0.052174,
0.077721,
0.093776,
0.101198,
0.101446,
0.096169,
0.086964,
0.07526
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.001886,
0.002031,
0.002546,
0.00326,
0.004019,
0.004755,
0.005462,
0.006169,
0.006916,
0.007537,
0.007891,
0.007922,
0.007645,
0.007121,
0.00643,
0.005652,
0.004857,
0.004104,
0.003434,
0.002877
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.009233,
0.021375,
0.028233,
0.030249,
0.029931,
0.029235,
0.029145,
0.029949,
0.025594,
0.016764,
0.006031,
-0.00436,
-0.013043,
-0.01943,
-0.023444,
-0.0253,
-0.025362,
-0.024042,
-0.021741,
-0.018815
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.196984,
0.212526,
0.208146,
0.187055,
0.154175,
0.113349,
0.067117,
0.017158,
-0.035329,
-0.083737,
-0.122503,
-0.148886,
-0.162618,
-0.165067,
-0.158396,
-0.144937,
-0.126928,
-0.106365,
-0.084915,
-0.063905
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.072183,
0.049814,
0.019409,
-0.014349,
-0.047282,
-0.077565,
-0.105194,
-0.131087,
-0.156427,
-0.176939,
-0.188932,
-0.190995,
-0.183695,
-0.168784,
-0.148497,
-0.125097,
-0.100613,
-0.076708,
-0.054644,
-0.035295
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.048284,
0.039452,
0.02022,
-0.005006,
-0.032177,
-0.059291,
-0.085955,
-0.11258,
-0.13982,
-0.163372,
-0.179503,
-0.186599,
-0.184902,
-0.175788,
-0.161128,
-0.142874,
-0.122817,
-0.102462,
-0.082991,
-0.065269
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.033954,
-0.036566,
-0.045826,
-0.058677,
-0.072349,
-0.085585,
-0.098312,
-0.111048,
-0.124483,
-0.135667,
-0.142046,
-0.142594,
-0.137608,
-0.128185,
-0.115745,
-0.101729,
-0.087423,
-0.073863,
-0.061819,
-0.051793
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.099485,
0.241758,
0.335041,
0.410473,
0.496674,
0.604141,
0.734127,
0.88466,
0.951485,
0.953885,
0.918355,
0.86084,
0.791194,
0.715859,
0.639425,
0.565196,
0.495348,
0.431327,
0.374022,
0.323895
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.172488,
-0.36142,
-0.47979,
-0.586275,
-0.7124,
-0.870601,
-1.063153,
-1.288337,
-1.378523,
-1.383568,
-1.335664,
-1.255522,
-1.15686,
-1.049152,
-0.939281,
-0.832226,
-0.731318,
-0.638733,
-0.555741,
-0.482947
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.1266,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 12,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.2483,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.4162,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_id
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_id",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "ID",
"name": "Indonesia"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00185,
0.002428,
0.00379,
0.005973,
0.008854,
0.012198,
0.015788,
0.019479,
0.021213,
0.021296,
0.019976,
0.017528,
0.014229,
0.01036,
0.006208,
0.002053,
-0.001848,
-0.005274,
-0.008057,
-0.01009
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001774,
0.002191,
0.001895,
0.001942,
0.002539,
0.003549,
0.004781,
0.00609,
0.006279,
0.006081,
0.00569,
0.005094,
0.00425,
0.003145,
0.001813,
0.000329,
-0.001207,
-0.002688,
-0.004007,
-0.00508
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.017769,
-0.015034,
-0.005984,
-0.001927,
-0.000209,
0.000502,
0.000726,
0.000663,
0.008614,
0.012057,
0.012831,
0.012066,
0.010416,
0.008287,
0.005952,
0.003613,
0.001418,
-0.00053,
-0.00217,
-0.003467
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.009951,
-0.017568,
-0.018728,
-0.016706,
-0.013426,
-0.009792,
-0.00625,
-0.003046,
0.004277,
0.012782,
0.020422,
0.026099,
0.029373,
0.030219,
0.028867,
0.025701,
0.02118,
0.015782,
0.009962,
0.004123
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.14685,
-0.187567,
-0.169827,
-0.163548,
-0.164478,
-0.170725,
-0.181488,
-0.196328,
-0.1471,
-0.107353,
-0.07464,
-0.047658,
-0.025677,
-0.008187,
0.005251,
0.015076,
0.02175,
0.025716,
0.027398,
0.027209
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000496,
0.001206,
0.002104,
0.003238,
0.004677,
0.006465,
0.008618,
0.011135,
0.013599,
0.015732,
0.017356,
0.01837,
0.01873,
0.018444,
0.017557,
0.016145,
0.014315,
0.012185,
0.009887,
0.00755
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.041461,
0.0732,
0.078035,
0.070649,
0.094697,
0.119633,
0.145313,
0.171697,
0.125213,
0.085464,
-0.08509,
-0.108746,
-0.122389,
-0.125913,
-0.120281,
-0.107088,
-0.088251,
-0.06576,
-0.041509,
-0.019068
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.016248,
0.037934,
0.06538,
0.097136,
0.131933,
0.168747,
0.206962,
0.246229,
0.193781,
0.146134,
0.10355,
0.066459,
0.0351,
0.009469,
-0.010638,
-0.025565,
-0.035751,
-0.041696,
-0.043939,
-0.043044
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.011933,
-0.010155,
-0.006361,
-0.001467,
0.003883,
0.009233,
0.014235,
0.018624,
0.022218,
0.024331,
0.024706,
0.023398,
0.020651,
0.016804,
0.012231,
0.007296,
0.002332,
-0.002382,
-0.006622,
-0.01023
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.006666,
0.007094,
0.007654,
0.00806,
0.008194,
0.008039,
0.007622,
0.006989,
0.006197,
0.005071,
0.003581,
0.001789,
-0.000191,
-0.002231,
-0.004205,
-0.006005,
-0.007544,
-0.008761,
-0.009623,
-0.010118
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001795,
-0.001486,
-0.000965,
-0.0004,
0.000126,
0.000577,
0.00094,
0.001214,
0.001406,
0.00141,
0.001195,
0.000782,
0.000219,
-0.000434,
-0.001116,
-0.001773,
-0.002358,
-0.002838,
-0.00319,
-0.003403
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.7e-05,
9.1e-05,
0.000265,
0.000567,
0.000992,
0.001515,
0.002096,
0.002691,
0.003241,
0.003681,
0.003944,
0.003978,
0.003745,
0.003229,
0.002441,
0.001416,
0.000208,
-0.001113,
-0.002468
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.002075,
-0.005522,
-0.008994,
-0.011941,
-0.014187,
-0.015709,
-0.016559,
-0.016825,
-0.01566,
-0.012916,
-0.008812,
-0.003744,
0.001831,
0.007461,
0.012735,
0.017314,
0.020941,
0.023448,
0.024752
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020105,
0.033738,
0.040101,
0.044062,
0.048,
0.052493,
0.057609,
0.063369,
0.055422,
0.04136,
0.024875,
0.008401,
-0.006623,
-0.01936,
-0.029338,
-0.036345,
-0.040358,
-0.041511,
-0.040056,
-0.036354
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000101,
0.000269,
0.00047,
0.00069,
0.00093,
0.001192,
0.001481,
0.001797,
0.002075,
0.002281,
0.002406,
0.002448,
0.002415,
0.002318,
0.002171,
0.001989,
0.001788,
0.00158,
0.00138,
0.001198
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014074,
0.023617,
0.028071,
0.030844,
0.0336,
0.036745,
0.040326,
0.044358,
0.038796,
0.028952,
0.017413,
0.005881,
-0.004636,
-0.013552,
-0.020537,
-0.025441,
-0.028251,
-0.029057,
-0.028039,
-0.025448
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000301,
-0.000392,
-0.000604,
-0.000939,
-0.001373,
-0.001871,
-0.002401,
-0.002944,
-0.003166,
-0.003125,
-0.002869,
-0.002448,
-0.00191,
-0.001297,
-0.000654,
-2.3e-05,
0.000558,
0.001059,
0.001454,
0.001729
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2.4e-05,
0.000131,
0.000384,
0.000826,
0.00146,
0.002253,
0.003152,
0.004096,
0.005002,
0.00577,
0.006301,
0.006509,
0.006327,
0.00572,
0.00469,
0.003275,
0.001542,
-0.000414,
-0.002482
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.016276,
-0.020791,
-0.018923,
-0.01836,
-0.018622,
-0.019484,
-0.020843,
-0.022645,
-0.017263,
-0.01281,
-0.00904,
-0.005837,
-0.003148,
-0.000942,
0.000808,
0.002131,
0.003066,
0.003651,
0.003929,
0.003946
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012438,
-0.010524,
-0.004189,
-0.001349,
-0.000146,
0.000352,
0.000508,
0.000464,
0.00603,
0.00844,
0.008982,
0.008446,
0.007291,
0.005801,
0.004166,
0.002529,
0.000993,
-0.000371,
-0.001519,
-0.002427
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00111,
0.001458,
0.00228,
0.003601,
0.005347,
0.007376,
0.009557,
0.011799,
0.012869,
0.012944,
0.012171,
0.010711,
0.00873,
0.006398,
0.003888,
0.001372,
-0.000995,
-0.003078,
-0.004775,
-0.00602
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-6.9e-05,
-0.000143,
-0.000249,
-0.000411,
-0.00064,
-0.000938,
-0.001295,
-0.001702,
-0.002072,
-0.002353,
-0.002514,
-0.002542,
-0.00244,
-0.002219,
-0.001897,
-0.0015,
-0.001055,
-0.000594,
-0.000143,
0.000222
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
2e-06,
3e-06,
4e-06,
5e-06,
6e-06,
6e-06,
5e-06,
3e-06,
-4e-06,
-2.7e-05,
-5.3e-05,
-8.2e-05,
-0.000111,
-0.000138,
-0.000162,
-0.000183
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
3e-06,
4e-06,
5e-06,
7e-06,
8e-06,
9e-06
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000916,
0.001202,
0.001876,
0.002957,
0.004383,
0.006038,
0.007815,
0.009642,
0.010501,
0.010542,
0.009888,
0.008676,
0.007043,
0.005128,
0.003073,
0.001016,
-0.000915,
-0.002611,
-0.003988,
-0.004994
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.044518,
0.056824,
0.051638,
0.049862,
0.050134,
0.051874,
0.054892,
0.059098,
0.043576,
0.030607,
0.019711,
0.010668,
0.003342,
-0.002399,
-0.006696,
-0.009705,
-0.011586,
-0.012496,
-0.012583,
-0.011993
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002488,
-0.004392,
-0.004682,
-0.004176,
-0.003356,
-0.002448,
-0.001563,
-0.000761,
0.001069,
0.003196,
0.005105,
0.006525,
0.007343,
0.007555,
0.007217,
0.006425,
0.005295,
0.003946,
0.002491,
0.001031
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
2e-06,
4e-06,
8e-06,
1.2e-05,
1.6e-05,
1.9e-05,
2.1e-05,
2.1e-05,
1.9e-05,
1.2e-05,
-4e-06,
-2.6e-05,
-5.3e-05,
-8.1e-05,
-0.000109,
-0.000136,
-0.00016,
-0.000181
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.009951,
-0.017568,
-0.018728,
-0.016706,
-0.013426,
-0.009792,
-0.00625,
-0.003046,
0.004277,
0.012782,
0.020422,
0.026099,
0.029373,
0.030219,
0.028867,
0.025701,
0.02118,
0.015782,
0.009962,
0.004123
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-2.5e-05,
5.7e-05,
0.000203,
0.000358,
0.000496,
0.000606,
0.000687,
0.000737,
0.000762,
0.000725,
0.000617,
0.000446,
0.000227,
-1.8e-05,
-0.00027,
-0.000511,
-0.000725,
-0.000902,
-0.001033,
-0.001115
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002488,
0.004392,
0.004682,
0.004176,
0.003356,
0.002448,
0.001563,
0.000761,
-0.001069,
-0.003196,
-0.005105,
-0.006525,
-0.007343,
-0.007555,
-0.007217,
-0.006425,
-0.005295,
-0.003946,
-0.002491,
-0.001031
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.022673,
0.019294,
0.012086,
0.002788,
-0.007378,
-0.017543,
-0.027046,
-0.035386,
-0.042213,
-0.046228,
-0.046941,
-0.044456,
-0.039237,
-0.031928,
-0.023239,
-0.013863,
-0.00443,
0.004525,
0.012581,
0.019437
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.029997,
-0.031921,
-0.034441,
-0.036268,
-0.036873,
-0.036175,
-0.034297,
-0.031451,
-0.027885,
-0.02282,
-0.016113,
-0.008051,
0.000859,
0.010038,
0.018922,
0.027021,
0.033946,
0.039425,
0.043302,
0.04553
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.01472,
0.012185,
0.007916,
0.00328,
-0.001032,
-0.004728,
-0.007705,
-0.009955,
-0.011527,
-0.01156,
-0.009799,
-0.006413,
-0.001799,
0.003555,
0.00915,
0.014536,
0.019338,
0.023274,
0.026161,
0.027907
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000455,
-0.001025,
-0.003645,
-0.006436,
-0.008922,
-0.010914,
-0.012359,
-0.013273,
-0.013707,
-0.013044,
-0.011106,
-0.008025,
-0.004095,
0.000324,
0.004865,
0.0092,
0.013056,
0.01623,
0.01859,
0.020075
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.022425,
0.004625,
-0.01884,
-0.027465,
-0.027551,
-0.023176,
-0.01683,
-0.009986,
-0.016917,
-0.015367,
-0.010046,
-0.003979,
0.001118,
0.004424,
0.005703,
0.005062,
0.00278,
-0.000756,
-0.005128,
-0.009943
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.153194,
-0.21131,
-0.225344,
-0.26734,
-0.33419,
-0.424354,
-0.536781,
-0.67031,
-0.698651,
-0.702274,
-0.685029,
-0.651448,
-0.606147,
-0.553377,
-0.496798,
-0.439382,
-0.383392,
-0.330469,
-0.281683,
-0.237672
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0213,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": 0.0065,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2462,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_tr
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_tr",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "TR",
"name": "Turkey"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002689,
0.003711,
0.006251,
0.010312,
0.015481,
0.021206,
0.027033,
0.032654,
0.035031,
0.034585,
0.031659,
0.02666,
0.020078,
0.012482,
0.004484,
-0.003309,
-0.010354,
-0.016213,
-0.020581,
-0.023295
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.003067,
0.003181,
0.002601,
0.0032,
0.004792,
0.006886,
0.009109,
0.011223,
0.011305,
0.010937,
0.010158,
0.00877,
0.006691,
0.003992,
0.000859,
-0.002456,
-0.005684,
-0.008569,
-0.0109,
-0.01253
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.018062,
-0.014466,
-0.00731,
-0.004784,
-0.003267,
-0.001977,
-0.000895,
-8.9e-05,
0.008379,
0.011816,
0.012973,
0.012837,
0.01181,
0.010143,
0.008042,
0.005714,
0.003353,
0.001101,
-0.000935,
-0.002676
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.018785,
-0.028225,
-0.026528,
-0.021891,
-0.016527,
-0.010983,
-0.005612,
-0.000761,
0.011581,
0.023772,
0.032877,
0.038104,
0.039525,
0.0376,
0.032974,
0.02639,
0.018622,
0.01038,
0.002274,
-0.005208
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.107515,
-0.139584,
-0.141234,
-0.150294,
-0.159253,
-0.167009,
-0.174128,
-0.18133,
-0.141763,
-0.107638,
-0.076005,
-0.046855,
-0.020843,
0.001442,
0.019578,
0.033442,
0.043187,
0.04903,
0.051295,
0.050403
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000807,
0.001912,
0.003311,
0.005172,
0.007625,
0.010717,
0.014424,
0.01868,
0.02278,
0.026285,
0.028901,
0.030434,
0.03078,
0.029924,
0.027938,
0.024972,
0.021236,
0.016983,
0.012484,
0.008008
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.058703,
0.088203,
0.082901,
0.06841,
0.068348,
0.086346,
0.104881,
0.123923,
0.090374,
-0.074286,
-0.10274,
-0.119074,
-0.123516,
-0.1175,
-0.103043,
-0.082469,
-0.058194,
-0.032439,
-0.016784,
0.016273
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.026532,
0.064193,
0.111766,
0.166577,
0.226139,
0.288544,
0.352704,
0.418002,
0.324127,
0.239642,
0.164727,
0.099869,
0.045351,
0.001144,
-0.033069,
-0.057847,
-0.073942,
-0.082257,
-0.08381,
-0.079689
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.016164,
-0.012368,
-0.005869,
0.001557,
0.009056,
0.016063,
0.022136,
0.026959,
0.030353,
0.031233,
0.029559,
0.025734,
0.02032,
0.013922,
0.007116,
0.0004,
-0.005817,
-0.011227,
-0.015622,
-0.018888
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.006979,
0.007336,
0.007904,
0.008193,
0.00812,
0.007714,
0.007024,
0.006112,
0.005045,
0.003484,
0.001457,
-0.000867,
-0.003289,
-0.005621,
-0.007704,
-0.009416,
-0.010675,
-0.01144,
-0.011706,
-0.011498
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001944,
-0.001274,
-0.000358,
0.000516,
0.001271,
0.001883,
0.002344,
0.002657,
0.002831,
0.002679,
0.002205,
0.001486,
0.000619,
-0.0003,
-0.001186,
-0.001969,
-0.0026,
-0.003047,
-0.003298,
-0.003354
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
6e-05,
0.000309,
0.000863,
0.001766,
0.002974,
0.004382,
0.005856,
0.007253,
0.008415,
0.009172,
0.009369,
0.00889,
0.007681,
0.005758,
0.003209,
0.000186,
-0.003118,
-0.006486,
-0.009702
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.002212,
-0.005749,
-0.009404,
-0.012734,
-0.015496,
-0.017528,
-0.018741,
-0.019123,
-0.017759,
-0.014561,
-0.009799,
-0.003907,
0.002604,
0.009199,
0.015375,
0.020689,
0.024793,
0.027449,
0.02853
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.035708,
0.053762,
0.059884,
0.065897,
0.073552,
0.081981,
0.090512,
0.098946,
0.08402,
0.061817,
0.037581,
0.013702,
-0.008476,
-0.027961,
-0.043946,
-0.055842,
-0.063336,
-0.066363,
-0.065108,
-0.059983
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000179,
0.000447,
0.000747,
0.001076,
0.001444,
0.001854,
0.002306,
0.002801,
0.003221,
0.00353,
0.003718,
0.003787,
0.003744,
0.003605,
0.003385,
0.003106,
0.002789,
0.002457,
0.002132,
0.001832
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.024996,
0.037633,
0.041919,
0.046128,
0.051487,
0.057386,
0.063359,
0.069262,
0.058814,
0.043272,
0.026306,
0.009591,
-0.005933,
-0.019573,
-0.030762,
-0.039089,
-0.044335,
-0.046454,
-0.045576,
-0.041988
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000471,
-0.00065,
-0.001096,
-0.001811,
-0.002722,
-0.003733,
-0.004763,
-0.005758,
-0.006185,
-0.006116,
-0.005611,
-0.00474,
-0.003587,
-0.002254,
-0.000847,
0.000526,
0.001769,
0.002805,
0.003579,
0.004064
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3.6e-05,
0.000192,
0.000548,
0.001149,
0.001988,
0.00302,
0.004171,
0.005359,
0.006478,
0.007411,
0.008035,
0.008247,
0.007971,
0.007176,
0.005874,
0.004122,
0.002014,
-0.000329,
-0.002775
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.015278,
-0.019986,
-0.020934,
-0.023629,
-0.027116,
-0.031082,
-0.035311,
-0.039685,
-0.037285,
-0.035107,
-0.032299,
-0.028636,
-0.024218,
-0.019295,
-0.014177,
-0.009159,
-0.004486,
-0.000355,
0.003095,
0.005787
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012644,
-0.010126,
-0.005117,
-0.003349,
-0.002287,
-0.001384,
-0.000626,
-6.2e-05,
0.005866,
0.008271,
0.009081,
0.008986,
0.008267,
0.0071,
0.005629,
0.004,
0.002347,
0.000771,
-0.000654,
-0.001873
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001614,
0.002229,
0.003759,
0.006209,
0.009333,
0.012799,
0.01633,
0.01974,
0.021204,
0.020971,
0.019239,
0.016251,
0.012299,
0.007727,
0.002904,
-0.001803,
-0.006064,
-0.009616,
-0.012272,
-0.013934
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000202,
-0.00043,
-0.000791,
-0.001367,
-0.002186,
-0.00323,
-0.00445,
-0.005787,
-0.006967,
-0.007819,
-0.008239,
-0.008179,
-0.00764,
-0.006666,
-0.005336,
-0.003754,
-0.002039,
-0.000313,
0.001191,
0.002457
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
-1e-06,
-5e-06,
-1.9e-05,
-4.6e-05,
-9.2e-05,
-0.000158,
-0.000245,
-0.000351,
-0.000472,
-0.000601,
-0.000727,
-0.000843,
-0.000941,
-0.001015,
-0.001063,
-0.001084,
-0.00108,
-0.001053
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
2e-06,
4e-06,
8e-06,
1.4e-05,
2.1e-05,
3.1e-05,
4.1e-05,
5.2e-05,
6.3e-05,
7.3e-05,
8.2e-05,
8.8e-05,
9.2e-05,
9.4e-05,
9.4e-05,
9.2e-05
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001627,
0.002245,
0.003782,
0.006239,
0.009366,
0.01283,
0.016355,
0.019756,
0.021194,
0.020924,
0.019154,
0.016129,
0.012147,
0.007552,
0.002713,
-0.002002,
-0.006264,
-0.009809,
-0.012451,
-0.014093
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.033007,
0.042854,
0.043832,
0.047196,
0.050517,
0.053361,
0.055887,
0.058312,
0.045777,
0.034222,
0.02307,
0.012549,
0.003007,
-0.005276,
-0.012092,
-0.017338,
-0.021006,
-0.023126,
-0.023782,
-0.023108
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.004696,
-0.007056,
-0.006632,
-0.005473,
-0.004132,
-0.002746,
-0.001403,
-0.00019,
0.002895,
0.005943,
0.008219,
0.009526,
0.009881,
0.0094,
0.008243,
0.006598,
0.004656,
0.002595,
0.000568,
-0.001302
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
-1e-06,
-6e-06,
-2.1e-05,
-5.2e-05,
-0.000105,
-0.00018,
-0.000279,
-0.0004,
-0.000538,
-0.000684,
-0.000829,
-0.000961,
-0.001072,
-0.001156,
-0.001211,
-0.001235,
-0.001231,
-0.0012
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.018785,
-0.028225,
-0.026528,
-0.021891,
-0.016527,
-0.010983,
-0.005612,
-0.000761,
0.011581,
0.023772,
0.032877,
0.038104,
0.039525,
0.0376,
0.032974,
0.02639,
0.018622,
0.01038,
0.002274,
-0.005208
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-5.8e-05,
9.8e-05,
0.000333,
0.000553,
0.000734,
0.000871,
0.000961,
0.001007,
0.001013,
0.000915,
0.000717,
0.000442,
0.000124,
-0.000205,
-0.000519,
-0.000794,
-0.001013,
-0.001168,
-0.001254,
-0.001272
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004696,
0.007056,
0.006632,
0.005473,
0.004132,
0.002746,
0.001403,
0.00019,
-0.002895,
-0.005943,
-0.008219,
-0.009526,
-0.009881,
-0.0094,
-0.008243,
-0.006598,
-0.004656,
-0.002595,
-0.000568,
0.001302
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.030712,
0.0235,
0.011151,
-0.002958,
-0.017207,
-0.030519,
-0.042058,
-0.051222,
-0.05767,
-0.059343,
-0.056162,
-0.048894,
-0.038607,
-0.026453,
-0.013521,
-0.00076,
0.011053,
0.021332,
0.029681,
0.035888
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.031405,
-0.03301,
-0.035569,
-0.036868,
-0.03654,
-0.034711,
-0.031608,
-0.027502,
-0.022704,
-0.015676,
-0.006556,
0.003902,
0.014801,
0.025296,
0.03467,
0.042374,
0.048038,
0.051479,
0.052675,
0.051743
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.015945,
0.010444,
0.002939,
-0.004232,
-0.010421,
-0.01544,
-0.019223,
-0.021783,
-0.023214,
-0.021972,
-0.018084,
-0.012184,
-0.005073,
0.002461,
0.009723,
0.016147,
0.021321,
0.024989,
0.027043,
0.027499
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001037,
-0.001767,
-0.005985,
-0.009948,
-0.013214,
-0.015675,
-0.017305,
-0.01813,
-0.018228,
-0.016477,
-0.012899,
-0.007958,
-0.002235,
0.003698,
0.009339,
0.014284,
0.018238,
0.021024,
0.022572,
0.022902
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.028631,
0.011418,
-0.005048,
-0.008052,
-0.00819,
-0.008984,
-0.011634,
-0.016608,
-0.039196,
-0.052409,
-0.062015,
-0.070061,
-0.077224,
-0.083674,
-0.089302,
-0.093997,
-0.097712,
-0.100331,
-0.101777,
-0.102039
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.113858,
-0.163328,
-0.19675,
-0.254087,
-0.328964,
-0.420639,
-0.529421,
-0.655312,
-0.693314,
-0.70256,
-0.686395,
-0.650645,
-0.601313,
-0.543747,
-0.482471,
-0.421016,
-0.361955,
-0.307155,
-0.257787,
-0.214477
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.035,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 9,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0048,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.418,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_sa
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_sa",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "SA",
"name": "Saudi Arabia"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001138,
0.001954,
0.004603,
0.010065,
0.019109,
0.031704,
0.047371,
0.06578,
0.085547,
0.104826,
0.120611,
0.13083,
0.134623,
0.132138,
0.124207,
0.112043,
0.096997,
0.08039,
0.063392,
0.046975
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.007579,
0.016567,
0.025512,
0.034273,
0.043289,
0.053041,
0.06386,
0.075939,
0.023416,
0.016307,
0.025579,
0.038764,
0.050495,
0.058642,
0.062645,
0.062742,
0.059569,
0.053927,
0.046643,
0.03848
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000507,
0.001762,
0.003837,
0.006693,
0.010224,
0.014262,
0.018633,
0.023207,
0.023334,
0.021027,
0.017573,
0.013725,
0.009915,
0.00639,
0.003285,
0.000666,
-0.001445,
-0.00306,
-0.004213,
-0.004951
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.049874,
-0.138539,
-0.255825,
-0.392817,
-0.542057,
-0.698753,
-0.860591,
-1.026397,
-0.746549,
-0.513306,
-0.322449,
-0.170782,
-0.054975,
0.02879,
0.084764,
0.117412,
0.131178,
0.130278,
0.118549,
0.099366
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004511,
0.01685,
0.039274,
0.073138,
0.119064,
0.177216,
0.24754,
0.329879,
0.383416,
0.413587,
0.425216,
0.422635,
0.409689,
0.389716,
0.365526,
0.33941,
0.313155,
0.288095,
0.265159,
0.24493
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001165,
0.004131,
0.009627,
0.018309,
0.030762,
0.047429,
0.068602,
0.094476,
0.116122,
0.134682,
0.150657,
0.164126,
0.17496,
0.182985,
0.188089,
0.190271,
0.189654,
0.186478,
0.181075,
0.173839
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.249372,
0.692693,
1.279123,
1.964087,
2.710284,
3.493764,
4.302956,
5.131987,
3.732744,
2.566532,
1.612243,
0.853908,
0.274874,
-0.143952,
-0.423819,
-0.58706,
-0.655891,
-0.651389,
-0.592746,
-0.49683
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013963,
0.032626,
0.061774,
0.104178,
0.162162,
0.235173,
0.321161,
0.418762,
0.455941,
0.497242,
0.530456,
0.547201,
0.543802,
0.520424,
0.479817,
0.42616,
0.364147,
0.298349,
0.232806,
0.170811
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.495607,
-0.582691,
-0.629537,
-0.637865,
-0.61011,
-0.549225,
-0.458282,
-0.340113,
-0.197137,
-0.087421,
-0.006973,
0.048152,
0.08192,
0.098239,
0.100828,
0.09311,
0.07813,
0.058504,
0.036409,
0.013586
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.253129,
-0.246856,
-0.237454,
-0.223512,
-0.203993,
-0.178181,
-0.145568,
-0.10574,
-0.058335,
-0.025474,
-0.004673,
0.006329,
0.009616,
0.00709,
0.000444,
-0.00886,
-0.019596,
-0.030779,
-0.041645,
-0.051633
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.156745,
-0.157226,
-0.155342,
-0.150381,
-0.141857,
-0.129471,
-0.113044,
-0.092458,
-0.067621,
-0.049684,
-0.03749,
-0.029988,
-0.026206,
-0.025253,
-0.026337,
-0.028768,
-0.031968,
-0.035471,
-0.038915,
-0.042033
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.000124,
0.000702,
0.00223,
0.005289,
0.010347,
0.017676,
0.027424,
0.039673,
0.054003,
0.069333,
0.084269,
0.097451,
0.107788,
0.114568,
0.117479,
0.116571,
0.112185,
0.104861,
0.095261
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
4.3e-05,
0.000235,
0.000755,
0.001851,
0.003829,
0.007029,
0.011811,
0.018536,
0.027201,
0.037598,
0.049421,
0.062309,
0.075884,
0.089766,
0.103593,
0.117029,
0.129776,
0.141582,
0.152242
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.077998,
0.2141,
0.399298,
0.622928,
0.875753,
1.149685,
1.439464,
1.742547,
1.379565,
1.083268,
0.837731,
0.633294,
0.463764,
0.32484,
0.213165,
0.125827,
0.060091,
0.013295,
-0.017174,
-0.033863
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00039,
0.00146,
0.003457,
0.006572,
0.01095,
0.016699,
0.023896,
0.032609,
0.039507,
0.044923,
0.049112,
0.052278,
0.054597,
0.056221,
0.057287,
0.057916,
0.058217,
0.058283,
0.058197,
0.058028
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.054598,
0.14987,
0.279509,
0.43605,
0.613027,
0.80478,
1.007625,
1.219783,
0.965695,
0.758287,
0.586412,
0.443306,
0.324635,
0.227388,
0.149216,
0.088079,
0.042063,
0.009306,
-0.012021,
-0.023704
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000213,
-9.9e-05,
0.000423,
0.001589,
0.003525,
0.006008,
0.008607,
0.010994,
0.013221,
0.014926,
0.015724,
0.015487,
0.014311,
0.012413,
0.010045,
0.007438,
0.004784,
0.002221,
-0.000153,
-0.002277
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
8.1e-05,
0.000472,
0.00155,
0.003803,
0.007707,
0.013666,
0.022024,
0.033119,
0.046958,
0.063067,
0.080638,
0.098719,
0.116374,
0.132788,
0.147326,
0.159555,
0.169245,
0.176341,
0.180936
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000479,
0.002602,
0.007647,
0.016719,
0.030477,
0.048389,
0.069233,
0.092077,
0.11143,
0.126411,
0.135581,
0.138401,
0.135278,
0.127221,
0.115504,
0.10143,
0.086181,
0.070751,
0.055918,
0.042256
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000355,
0.001233,
0.002686,
0.004685,
0.007157,
0.009984,
0.013043,
0.016245,
0.016334,
0.014719,
0.012301,
0.009607,
0.006941,
0.004473,
0.002299,
0.000467,
-0.001011,
-0.002142,
-0.002949,
-0.003466
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000683,
0.001173,
0.002766,
0.006049,
0.011487,
0.019058,
0.028475,
0.039538,
0.051417,
0.063,
0.072483,
0.07862,
0.080895,
0.079397,
0.074627,
0.067314,
0.058271,
0.048289,
0.038073,
0.028207
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000119,
-0.000295,
-0.000704,
-0.001585,
-0.003195,
-0.005725,
-0.009268,
-0.013858,
-0.019376,
-0.025539,
-0.031818,
-0.037601,
-0.042336,
-0.045626,
-0.047262,
-0.047211,
-0.045593,
-0.042635,
-0.038633,
-0.033907
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
1e-05,
3.2e-05,
7.4e-05,
0.000143,
0.000239,
0.000361,
0.000509,
0.000675,
0.000848,
0.001014,
0.001163,
0.001283,
0.001371,
0.001421,
0.001435,
0.001414,
0.001363,
0.001286
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000501,
0.00086,
0.002025,
0.004429,
0.008408,
0.01395,
0.020843,
0.028943,
0.037641,
0.046124,
0.053069,
0.057565,
0.059234,
0.058141,
0.054651,
0.049299,
0.042679,
0.035371,
0.027893,
0.020669
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001183,
-0.004794,
-0.011246,
-0.020849,
-0.033707,
-0.049845,
-0.069257,
-0.091899,
-0.105707,
-0.112506,
-0.114078,
-0.111973,
-0.107464,
-0.101561,
-0.095031,
-0.088433,
-0.082156,
-0.076447,
-0.071448,
-0.067217
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012469,
-0.034635,
-0.063956,
-0.098204,
-0.135514,
-0.174688,
-0.215148,
-0.256599,
-0.186637,
-0.128327,
-0.080612,
-0.042695,
-0.013744,
0.007198,
0.021191,
0.029353,
0.032795,
0.032569,
0.029637,
0.024841
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
6e-06,
3.2e-05,
0.000101,
0.000236,
0.000453,
0.000758,
0.001147,
0.001615,
0.002142,
0.002691,
0.00322,
0.003691,
0.004074,
0.004351,
0.004511,
0.004555,
0.00449,
0.004328,
0.004084
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.049874,
-0.138539,
-0.255825,
-0.392817,
-0.542057,
-0.698753,
-0.860591,
-1.026397,
-0.746549,
-0.513306,
-0.322449,
-0.170782,
-0.054975,
0.02879,
0.084764,
0.117412,
0.131178,
0.130278,
0.118549,
0.099366
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.056655,
-0.056237,
-0.055079,
-0.052945,
-0.049669,
-0.04515,
-0.039325,
-0.032151,
-0.023596,
-0.017373,
-0.013094,
-0.010405,
-0.00898,
-0.008521,
-0.008759,
-0.009463,
-0.01044,
-0.011531,
-0.012615,
-0.013601
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.012469,
0.034635,
0.063956,
0.098204,
0.135514,
0.174688,
0.215148,
0.256599,
0.186637,
0.128327,
0.080612,
0.042695,
0.013744,
-0.007198,
-0.021191,
-0.029353,
-0.032795,
-0.032569,
-0.029637,
-0.024841
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.941653,
1.107113,
1.19612,
1.211943,
1.15921,
1.043528,
0.870736,
0.646215,
0.37456,
0.1661,
0.013248,
-0.091489,
-0.155649,
-0.186654,
-0.191572,
-0.176909,
-0.148446,
-0.111158,
-0.069177,
-0.025814
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
1.13908,
1.110854,
1.068545,
1.005805,
0.917967,
0.801815,
0.655055,
0.475829,
0.262507,
0.114633,
0.021027,
-0.02848,
-0.043273,
-0.031906,
-0.001998,
0.039868,
0.088184,
0.138507,
0.187402,
0.232348
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
1.285307,
1.289257,
1.273807,
1.233126,
1.163227,
1.06166,
0.926963,
0.758155,
0.554494,
0.407411,
0.307422,
0.245904,
0.214887,
0.207077,
0.215962,
0.235894,
0.262137,
0.290864,
0.319104,
0.344674
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
1.019795,
1.012259,
0.991427,
0.953007,
0.894042,
0.812695,
0.707846,
0.578723,
0.424731,
0.312718,
0.235691,
0.187294,
0.161646,
0.15337,
0.157657,
0.170339,
0.187918,
0.20756,
0.227068,
0.244815
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.106584,
-0.172266,
-0.204242,
-0.241476,
-0.287246,
-0.34406,
-0.413661,
-0.497087,
-0.514132,
-0.508484,
-0.487436,
-0.456989,
-0.421854,
-0.38558,
-0.350718,
-0.318992,
-0.291468,
-0.26869,
-0.250799,
-0.237635
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001833,
-0.006893,
-0.016242,
-0.030655,
-0.050648,
-0.076414,
-0.107753,
-0.144103,
-0.168135,
-0.181335,
-0.185173,
-0.181155,
-0.170782,
-0.155474,
-0.136522,
-0.115049,
-0.091987,
-0.068089,
-0.043923,
-0.019951
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.1346,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 13,
"CPI_3yr_pp": 0.1548,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.5472,
"equity_peak_quarter": 12
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_ar
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_ar",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "AR",
"name": "Argentina"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.003363,
0.004968,
0.009181,
0.015974,
0.024503,
0.033641,
0.042446,
0.050367,
0.053627,
0.052625,
0.047547,
0.038845,
0.027303,
0.013967,
9e-06,
-0.013429,
-0.025352,
-0.034994,
-0.041869,
-0.045743
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00354,
0.003462,
0.003005,
0.004437,
0.007366,
0.010962,
0.01457,
0.017786,
0.018391,
0.018117,
0.016857,
0.014322,
0.01048,
0.005564,
-2.1e-05,
-0.005789,
-0.011258,
-0.016006,
-0.019716,
-0.022179
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.017572,
-0.012548,
-0.004492,
-0.001248,
0.000714,
0.002185,
0.003251,
0.003909,
0.011467,
0.01402,
0.014299,
0.013216,
0.011176,
0.008476,
0.005395,
0.002193,
-0.0009,
-0.003701,
-0.00607,
-0.007921
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.021086,
-0.028327,
-0.02207,
-0.013223,
-0.004626,
0.003153,
0.009846,
0.015208,
0.027838,
0.038783,
0.045164,
0.046562,
0.043429,
0.036573,
0.026982,
0.015711,
0.003793,
-0.007844,
-0.01843,
-0.027384
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.16735,
-0.215065,
-0.20872,
-0.208719,
-0.209711,
-0.211877,
-0.216278,
-0.223707,
-0.165145,
-0.114128,
-0.068316,
-0.027938,
0.006379,
0.034243,
0.055564,
0.070541,
0.079573,
0.083179,
0.082038,
0.076849
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001032,
0.002414,
0.004179,
0.006624,
0.00997,
0.014269,
0.019432,
0.025297,
0.030934,
0.035758,
0.039325,
0.0413,
0.041478,
0.039804,
0.036382,
0.031454,
0.025367,
0.018539,
0.011413,
0.00442
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.052715,
0.070817,
0.055175,
0.050548,
0.067754,
0.085595,
0.103969,
0.122846,
0.089588,
-0.096958,
-0.11291,
-0.116406,
-0.108572,
-0.091433,
-0.067454,
-0.039277,
-0.019258,
0.019611,
0.046075,
0.06846
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.030478,
0.074099,
0.130266,
0.195865,
0.267508,
0.342279,
0.418321,
0.494645,
0.387902,
0.290561,
0.202471,
0.12412,
0.056137,
-0.000941,
-0.046801,
-0.081433,
-0.105165,
-0.11866,
-0.122895,
-0.119064
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.007641,
-0.001525,
0.006864,
0.015268,
0.022741,
0.028748,
0.032925,
0.035067,
0.03513,
0.032125,
0.026296,
0.018347,
0.009104,
-0.000613,
-0.010066,
-0.01864,
-0.025868,
-0.031431,
-0.035163,
-0.037035
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.008503,
0.007841,
0.007306,
0.006328,
0.004884,
0.00308,
0.001037,
-0.001126,
-0.003295,
-0.005806,
-0.008562,
-0.011337,
-0.013897,
-0.016038,
-0.017606,
-0.0185,
-0.018675,
-0.018136,
-0.016934,
-0.015157
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002208,
-0.001251,
-0.000131,
0.000806,
0.00149,
0.001922,
0.00212,
0.002109,
0.001923,
0.001383,
0.000531,
-0.000513,
-0.001623,
-0.002681,
-0.003591,
-0.004281,
-0.004705,
-0.004844,
-0.004701,
-0.004301
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.000133,
0.000678,
0.001879,
0.003818,
0.006386,
0.009339,
0.012382,
0.015227,
0.017558,
0.019018,
0.019275,
0.018097,
0.015396,
0.011245,
0.005873,
-0.000377,
-0.007086,
-0.013807,
-0.020113
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.003419,
-0.008152,
-0.011995,
-0.01427,
-0.014762,
-0.013463,
-0.010525,
-0.006223,
0.000496,
0.00926,
0.019203,
0.029299,
0.038528,
0.045982,
0.050939,
0.052912,
0.051675,
0.047254,
0.039905
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.041044,
0.058014,
0.063058,
0.071438,
0.084241,
0.098871,
0.113268,
0.126637,
0.112277,
0.088893,
0.061095,
0.031028,
0.000548,
-0.028359,
-0.053764,
-0.074067,
-0.08817,
-0.095546,
-0.096259,
-0.090778
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000205,
0.000495,
0.000811,
0.001168,
0.001589,
0.002083,
0.00265,
0.003283,
0.003844,
0.004289,
0.004594,
0.004749,
0.004752,
0.00461,
0.004341,
0.003971,
0.00353,
0.003053,
0.002571,
0.002117
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.028731,
0.04061,
0.04414,
0.050006,
0.058969,
0.06921,
0.079288,
0.088646,
0.078594,
0.062225,
0.042766,
0.02172,
0.000383,
-0.019852,
-0.037635,
-0.051847,
-0.061719,
-0.066882,
-0.067381,
-0.063545
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000651,
-0.000949,
-0.00171,
-0.002907,
-0.004358,
-0.005856,
-0.007242,
-0.008432,
-0.008706,
-0.008179,
-0.006941,
-0.005111,
-0.002851,
-0.000357,
0.002161,
0.004505,
0.006506,
0.00804,
0.009031,
0.009454
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
5.2e-05,
0.000273,
0.000781,
0.001643,
0.002856,
0.004359,
0.006058,
0.007848,
0.009594,
0.011131,
0.012285,
0.012899,
0.012863,
0.012125,
0.010694,
0.008639,
0.006074,
0.003147,
2.1e-05
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.012703,
-0.016253,
-0.015579,
-0.015035,
-0.014066,
-0.0127,
-0.011154,
-0.009613,
-0.002824,
0.003409,
0.008885,
0.013334,
0.016599,
0.018652,
0.019558,
0.019442,
0.01846,
0.016784,
0.014587,
0.012034
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.0123,
-0.008784,
-0.003145,
-0.000873,
0.0005,
0.001529,
0.002276,
0.002736,
0.008027,
0.009814,
0.010009,
0.009251,
0.007823,
0.005934,
0.003776,
0.001535,
-0.00063,
-0.002591,
-0.004249,
-0.005545
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002018,
0.002982,
0.005514,
0.009599,
0.014732,
0.020235,
0.025541,
0.030319,
0.0323,
0.031721,
0.028691,
0.023477,
0.016551,
0.00854,
0.000149,
-0.007935,
-0.015111,
-0.020921,
-0.025069,
-0.027416
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000252,
-0.000562,
-0.00111,
-0.00203,
-0.003361,
-0.005044,
-0.006966,
-0.009002,
-0.010774,
-0.012027,
-0.012586,
-0.012353,
-0.011313,
-0.009532,
-0.00715,
-0.004355,
-0.001365,
0.001385,
0.003675,
0.00551
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
3e-06,
7e-06,
1.3e-05,
2.1e-05,
3.1e-05,
4.3e-05,
5.6e-05,
6.9e-05,
8e-05,
9e-05,
9.8e-05,
0.000102,
0.000104,
0.000104,
0.000101,
9.5e-05,
8.8e-05
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001923,
0.002842,
0.005252,
0.009137,
0.014016,
0.019243,
0.024279,
0.02881,
0.030675,
0.030101,
0.027197,
0.02222,
0.015617,
0.007989,
5e-06,
-0.007682,
-0.014501,
-0.020017,
-0.023949,
-0.026165
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.050878,
0.06547,
0.064246,
0.065254,
0.066675,
0.068377,
0.070572,
0.073449,
0.055583,
0.039225,
0.023864,
0.009742,
-0.002788,
-0.013435,
-0.022006,
-0.028404,
-0.032621,
-0.034722,
-0.034864,
-0.03325
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.005272,
-0.007082,
-0.005518,
-0.003306,
-0.001156,
0.000788,
0.002461,
0.003802,
0.006959,
0.009696,
0.011291,
0.011641,
0.010857,
0.009143,
0.006745,
0.003928,
0.000948,
-0.001961,
-0.004607,
-0.006846
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
4e-06,
1.2e-05,
2.8e-05,
5.1e-05,
8.3e-05,
0.000121,
0.000166,
0.000215,
0.000264,
0.000309,
0.000347,
0.000375,
0.000394,
0.000402,
0.000399,
0.000387,
0.000366,
0.000339
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.021086,
-0.028327,
-0.02207,
-0.013223,
-0.004626,
0.003153,
0.009846,
0.015208,
0.027838,
0.038783,
0.045164,
0.046562,
0.043429,
0.036573,
0.026982,
0.015711,
0.003793,
-0.007844,
-0.01843,
-0.027384
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-6.7e-05,
0.000109,
0.000345,
0.000529,
0.000639,
0.000677,
0.00065,
0.000568,
0.00044,
0.000208,
-0.000116,
-0.000493,
-0.000882,
-0.001245,
-0.00155,
-0.001775,
-0.001907,
-0.001938,
-0.001873,
-0.00172
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.005272,
0.007082,
0.005518,
0.003306,
0.001156,
-0.000788,
-0.002461,
-0.003802,
-0.006959,
-0.009696,
-0.011291,
-0.011641,
-0.010857,
-0.009143,
-0.006745,
-0.003928,
-0.000948,
0.001961,
0.004607,
0.006846
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014517,
0.002898,
-0.013041,
-0.029009,
-0.043208,
-0.054621,
-0.062558,
-0.066628,
-0.066747,
-0.061037,
-0.049963,
-0.034859,
-0.017297,
0.001166,
0.019125,
0.035417,
0.049149,
0.059718,
0.066809,
0.070366
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.038262,
-0.035287,
-0.032875,
-0.028477,
-0.021978,
-0.013859,
-0.004667,
0.005065,
0.014828,
0.026129,
0.038531,
0.051019,
0.062535,
0.07217,
0.079227,
0.083251,
0.084036,
0.08161,
0.076203,
0.068208
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.018103,
0.010262,
0.001077,
-0.006613,
-0.012221,
-0.015762,
-0.017381,
-0.017291,
-0.015769,
-0.011337,
-0.004358,
0.004206,
0.013308,
0.021986,
0.02945,
0.035106,
0.038582,
0.039719,
0.038549,
0.035265
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001201,
-0.001965,
-0.006214,
-0.009523,
-0.011502,
-0.012189,
-0.011707,
-0.010219,
-0.007926,
-0.003738,
0.002093,
0.008881,
0.015877,
0.022403,
0.0279,
0.031955,
0.034318,
0.034891,
0.033717,
0.030952
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.066249,
0.049046,
0.022325,
0.011946,
0.006843,
0.003504,
0.000852,
-0.001434,
-0.031544,
-0.049329,
-0.061641,
-0.071112,
-0.078706,
-0.084719,
-0.089161,
-0.091963,
-0.093051,
-0.092367,
-0.089992,
-0.086043
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.173693,
-0.238809,
-0.264237,
-0.312512,
-0.379423,
-0.465506,
-0.571571,
-0.697689,
-0.716695,
-0.70905,
-0.678705,
-0.631728,
-0.574091,
-0.510947,
-0.446484,
-0.383917,
-0.325569,
-0.273006,
-0.227044,
-0.188031
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0536,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 9,
"CPI_3yr_pp": 0.0272,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.4946,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_za
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_za",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "ZA",
"name": "South Africa"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001794,
0.002361,
0.003744,
0.006091,
0.009391,
0.013438,
0.017973,
0.022789,
0.025825,
0.02726,
0.027231,
0.025924,
0.023527,
0.02024,
0.016294,
0.01195,
0.007485,
0.003169,
-0.000757,
-0.004101
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001464,
0.00247,
0.002819,
0.003029,
0.003598,
0.004693,
0.00625,
0.00812,
0.009125,
0.009503,
0.009525,
0.009318,
0.008876,
0.008144,
0.007085,
0.005712,
0.004093,
0.002333,
0.000555,
-0.001117
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.009949,
-0.015537,
-0.013762,
-0.010364,
-0.007566,
-0.005894,
-0.005239,
-0.005322,
-0.000599,
0.00457,
0.008429,
0.010591,
0.011255,
0.010795,
0.009586,
0.007942,
0.006112,
0.004276,
0.002558,
0.001036
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.007462,
-0.018029,
-0.025259,
-0.028084,
-0.027638,
-0.025448,
-0.022759,
-0.020366,
-0.014722,
-0.006053,
0.003879,
0.013252,
0.020785,
0.025829,
0.028248,
0.028258,
0.02628,
0.022824,
0.018409,
0.013511
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.05922,
-0.121906,
-0.158399,
-0.181664,
-0.200353,
-0.219389,
-0.241208,
-0.266862,
-0.265245,
-0.247352,
-0.220782,
-0.190593,
-0.160034,
-0.131118,
-0.10505,
-0.082476,
-0.063647,
-0.048551,
-0.037012,
-0.028738
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000465,
0.001242,
0.00236,
0.003844,
0.005746,
0.008114,
0.010982,
0.014369,
0.017875,
0.021164,
0.023985,
0.026177,
0.027653,
0.028376,
0.028357,
0.027639,
0.026299,
0.02444,
0.022182,
0.01966
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.03109,
0.075122,
0.105245,
0.117016,
0.115158,
0.137152,
0.166593,
0.19684,
0.14355,
0.097979,
0.059919,
-0.055217,
-0.086606,
-0.10762,
-0.117699,
-0.117741,
-0.1095,
-0.095102,
-0.076705,
-0.056295
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.022862,
0.050795,
0.087241,
0.130891,
0.180432,
0.234333,
0.291332,
0.350528,
0.292844,
0.238885,
0.188886,
0.143436,
0.102893,
0.067352,
0.036769,
0.011064,
-0.009845,
-0.026044,
-0.03766,
-0.044902
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.021881,
-0.022788,
-0.021291,
-0.017649,
-0.012482,
-0.006429,
-1.9e-05,
0.006356,
0.012434,
0.01756,
0.021169,
0.022986,
0.023018,
0.021491,
0.018748,
0.015173,
0.011143,
0.006992,
0.002998,
-0.000627
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000273,
0.001074,
0.00217,
0.003415,
0.00462,
0.005656,
0.006472,
0.00708,
0.00753,
0.00769,
0.007434,
0.00672,
0.005591,
0.004152,
0.002532,
0.000867,
-0.000726,
-0.002148,
-0.003332,
-0.004236
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002285,
-0.002041,
-0.001515,
-0.000794,
1e-05,
0.00081,
0.001561,
0.002248,
0.002875,
0.003361,
0.003627,
0.003642,
0.003419,
0.003002,
0.002454,
0.00184,
0.001221,
0.000645,
0.000151,
-0.000239
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2.8e-05,
0.000157,
0.000482,
0.001089,
0.00201,
0.003223,
0.004673,
0.006284,
0.007941,
0.009501,
0.01082,
0.011769,
0.012241,
0.012168,
0.011526,
0.010343,
0.00869,
0.006679,
0.004442
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.001377,
-0.004612,
-0.009041,
-0.013884,
-0.018586,
-0.02285,
-0.026583,
-0.029814,
-0.031911,
-0.032325,
-0.030827,
-0.027502,
-0.022663,
-0.016747,
-0.010236,
-0.003596,
0.002765,
0.008515,
0.013412
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.016216,
0.03423,
0.049789,
0.061622,
0.071241,
0.080151,
0.089433,
0.099747,
0.098133,
0.087665,
0.071295,
0.052322,
0.033196,
0.015473,
3.9e-05,
-0.012655,
-0.022441,
-0.029323,
-0.033427,
-0.034979
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
8.1e-05,
0.000252,
0.000501,
0.000809,
0.001165,
0.001566,
0.002013,
0.002512,
0.003003,
0.003441,
0.003798,
0.004059,
0.004225,
0.004303,
0.004303,
0.004239,
0.004127,
0.003981,
0.003814,
0.003639
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.011351,
0.023961,
0.034853,
0.043135,
0.049869,
0.056106,
0.062603,
0.069823,
0.068693,
0.061366,
0.049907,
0.036625,
0.023237,
0.010831,
2.8e-05,
-0.008859,
-0.015709,
-0.020526,
-0.023399,
-0.024486
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000314,
-0.000407,
-0.000627,
-0.000991,
-0.001491,
-0.002097,
-0.002775,
-0.003497,
-0.003906,
-0.00405,
-0.003971,
-0.003713,
-0.00331,
-0.00279,
-0.002186,
-0.001533,
-0.000872,
-0.00024,
0.000328,
0.000802
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.1e-05,
6.2e-05,
0.000195,
0.000454,
0.000866,
0.00144,
0.002167,
0.00303,
0.003992,
0.004997,
0.005983,
0.006884,
0.007638,
0.008191,
0.008504,
0.008557,
0.008349,
0.007899,
0.007242
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.008441,
-0.017266,
-0.022494,
-0.025957,
-0.028871,
-0.031912,
-0.0354,
-0.039463,
-0.039572,
-0.037277,
-0.033639,
-0.029372,
-0.024943,
-0.020652,
-0.01669,
-0.013174,
-0.010164,
-0.007684,
-0.005726,
-0.004266
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.006964,
-0.010876,
-0.009633,
-0.007255,
-0.005297,
-0.004125,
-0.003667,
-0.003726,
-0.000419,
0.003199,
0.0059,
0.007414,
0.007878,
0.007556,
0.00671,
0.005559,
0.004279,
0.002993,
0.00179,
0.000725
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001076,
0.001418,
0.002252,
0.003671,
0.005669,
0.00812,
0.010868,
0.013786,
0.015636,
0.016523,
0.016524,
0.015748,
0.014309,
0.012326,
0.00994,
0.00731,
0.004605,
0.001988,
-0.000395,
-0.002427
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000135,
-0.000278,
-0.000489,
-0.000824,
-0.001322,
-0.001999,
-0.002848,
-0.003845,
-0.00482,
-0.00566,
-0.006287,
-0.00666,
-0.006759,
-0.006588,
-0.006163,
-0.005518,
-0.0047,
-0.003763,
-0.002765,
-0.001766
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
3e-06,
7e-06,
1.1e-05,
1.6e-05,
2.2e-05,
2.8e-05,
3.4e-05,
3.9e-05,
4.2e-05,
4.3e-05,
4.2e-05,
4e-05,
3.5e-05,
2.6e-05,
1.5e-05,
2e-06,
-3.1e-05
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001145,
0.001506,
0.002388,
0.003886,
0.005992,
0.008573,
0.011467,
0.01454,
0.016476,
0.017392,
0.017373,
0.016539,
0.01501,
0.012913,
0.010396,
0.007624,
0.004775,
0.002022,
-0.000483,
-0.002617
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.018089,
0.036958,
0.048008,
0.055095,
0.060772,
0.066513,
0.073077,
0.080798,
0.080004,
0.074128,
0.06561,
0.056076,
0.046544,
0.037619,
0.029643,
0.022794,
0.01713,
0.012643,
0.009276,
0.006942
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001865,
-0.004507,
-0.006315,
-0.007021,
-0.00691,
-0.006362,
-0.00569,
-0.005092,
-0.003681,
-0.001513,
0.00097,
0.003313,
0.005196,
0.006457,
0.007062,
0.007064,
0.00657,
0.005706,
0.004602,
0.003378
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
4e-06,
1e-05,
2.1e-05,
3.6e-05,
5.3e-05,
7.2e-05,
9.2e-05,
0.000111,
0.000126,
0.000135,
0.000139,
0.000136,
0.000128,
0.000113,
8.5e-05,
4.8e-05,
7e-06,
-3.6e-05
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.007462,
-0.018029,
-0.025259,
-0.028084,
-0.027638,
-0.025448,
-0.022759,
-0.020366,
-0.014722,
-0.006053,
0.003879,
0.013252,
0.020785,
0.025829,
0.028248,
0.028258,
0.02628,
0.022824,
0.018409,
0.013511
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
1e-05,
7.3e-05,
0.000224,
0.000436,
0.000672,
0.000905,
0.001119,
0.001311,
0.001483,
0.001608,
0.00166,
0.001629,
0.00152,
0.001348,
0.001132,
0.000897,
0.00066,
0.00044,
0.000248,
9.2e-05
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001865,
0.004507,
0.006315,
0.007021,
0.00691,
0.006362,
0.00569,
0.005092,
0.003681,
0.001513,
-0.00097,
-0.003313,
-0.005196,
-0.006457,
-0.007062,
-0.007064,
-0.00657,
-0.005706,
-0.004602,
-0.003378
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.041573,
0.043298,
0.040453,
0.033533,
0.023716,
0.012215,
3.7e-05,
-0.012077,
-0.023625,
-0.033363,
-0.040222,
-0.043673,
-0.043734,
-0.040832,
-0.035621,
-0.028829,
-0.021172,
-0.013285,
-0.005697,
0.00119
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001227,
-0.004833,
-0.009764,
-0.015369,
-0.020791,
-0.025452,
-0.029124,
-0.031862,
-0.033887,
-0.034605,
-0.033452,
-0.030239,
-0.025162,
-0.018684,
-0.011396,
-0.003899,
0.003266,
0.009667,
0.014994,
0.01906
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.018734,
0.016738,
0.012425,
0.006508,
-8e-05,
-0.006643,
-0.012801,
-0.01843,
-0.023576,
-0.027558,
-0.029744,
-0.029866,
-0.028032,
-0.024616,
-0.020123,
-0.015091,
-0.010012,
-0.005293,
-0.001237,
0.001957
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000172,
-0.001306,
-0.004033,
-0.007852,
-0.012101,
-0.016286,
-0.020146,
-0.023602,
-0.026698,
-0.028944,
-0.029886,
-0.029331,
-0.027363,
-0.024256,
-0.020384,
-0.01614,
-0.011885,
-0.007917,
-0.00446,
-0.001657
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.044684,
-0.032396,
-0.003589,
0.014846,
0.030357,
0.046303,
0.063725,
0.082681,
0.114124,
0.127788,
0.129835,
0.124198,
0.113497,
0.099583,
0.083853,
0.06739,
0.051003,
0.035309,
0.020759,
0.007663
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.065563,
-0.145649,
-0.213915,
-0.285457,
-0.370065,
-0.473018,
-0.596501,
-0.740844,
-0.816795,
-0.842273,
-0.831171,
-0.794383,
-0.740504,
-0.676308,
-0.607098,
-0.536935,
-0.468788,
-0.404735,
-0.346094,
-0.293619
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0273,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0506,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.3505,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_nl
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_nl",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "NL",
"name": "Netherlands"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0008,
0.001288,
0.002655,
0.005099,
0.008676,
0.012986,
0.01759,
0.02234,
0.026355,
0.029167,
0.030305,
0.029853,
0.028105,
0.025412,
0.022108,
0.018487,
0.014788,
0.011201,
0.007867,
0.004886
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000666,
0.001398,
0.002234,
0.003335,
0.004883,
0.006818,
0.008983,
0.011303,
0.013299,
0.014746,
0.015437,
0.015383,
0.014698,
0.013529,
0.012021,
0.010307,
0.008497,
0.006686,
0.004947,
0.003337
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.014526,
-0.025075,
-0.026682,
-0.025242,
-0.023327,
-0.022005,
-0.021695,
-0.022489,
-0.016938,
-0.009834,
-0.003346,
0.001717,
0.005206,
0.00726,
0.008129,
0.008091,
0.007406,
0.006305,
0.004974,
0.003563
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.044018,
-0.099602,
-0.145872,
-0.186582,
-0.224787,
-0.262912,
-0.30292,
-0.346475,
-0.372602,
-0.384997,
-0.386754,
-0.380619,
-0.369023,
-0.35406,
-0.337473,
-0.320646,
-0.304626,
-0.290153,
-0.277697,
-0.267509
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000147,
0.00043,
0.00096,
0.001851,
0.003215,
0.005108,
0.007533,
0.010476,
0.013796,
0.017293,
0.020721,
0.023864,
0.026565,
0.028725,
0.030298,
0.031282,
0.031707,
0.031626,
0.031106,
0.030224
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.030781,
0.081126,
0.141731,
0.208827,
0.279906,
0.353612,
0.429519,
0.507503,
0.370108,
0.252615,
0.176393,
0.150504,
0.12227,
0.094901,
0.070654,
-0.073924,
-0.079558,
-0.077109,
-0.068735,
-0.056361
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013534,
0.033377,
0.059464,
0.090977,
0.127153,
0.166371,
0.207239,
0.249282,
0.210248,
0.175134,
0.142404,
0.112175,
0.084994,
0.061331,
0.041427,
0.025293,
0.012746,
0.003473,
-0.002916,
-0.006842
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.018337,
-0.021643,
-0.024123,
-0.025564,
-0.025943,
-0.025348,
-0.023913,
-0.021777,
-0.019059,
-0.016031,
-0.012999,
-0.010222,
-0.00788,
-0.006065,
-0.004798,
-0.004046,
-0.003743,
-0.0038,
-0.004123,
-0.004616
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.015691,
-0.015692,
-0.015455,
-0.014975,
-0.014293,
-0.013463,
-0.012528,
-0.011516,
-0.010435,
-0.009351,
-0.008343,
-0.007474,
-0.00678,
-0.006273,
-0.00594,
-0.005755,
-0.005681,
-0.005681,
-0.005718,
-0.005759
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.010734,
-0.010722,
-0.010562,
-0.010249,
-0.009801,
-0.009245,
-0.008605,
-0.007899,
-0.007136,
-0.006352,
-0.005593,
-0.004896,
-0.004282,
-0.003761,
-0.003331,
-0.002982,
-0.002697,
-0.00246,
-0.002254,
-0.002062
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
4.9e-05,
0.000254,
0.000741,
0.001628,
0.002954,
0.00468,
0.006748,
0.009108,
0.011604,
0.013997,
0.016075,
0.017687,
0.018749,
0.019234,
0.019162,
0.018585,
0.017577,
0.016223,
0.014614
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.00154,
-0.005492,
-0.011624,
-0.019396,
-0.028282,
-0.037889,
-0.047982,
-0.058474,
-0.068619,
-0.077626,
-0.084909,
-0.090141,
-0.093233,
-0.094283,
-0.09352,
-0.091249,
-0.087811,
-0.083547,
-0.078779
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.006635,
0.01635,
0.029352,
0.044519,
0.061398,
0.078528,
0.095062,
0.111391,
0.122586,
0.127313,
0.124688,
0.116307,
0.104043,
0.089626,
0.074471,
0.059656,
0.045926,
0.033759,
0.023407,
0.01496
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.3e-05,
0.000115,
0.000262,
0.000484,
0.000791,
0.001184,
0.001659,
0.002216,
0.002829,
0.003466,
0.004089,
0.004671,
0.005191,
0.005639,
0.006011,
0.00631,
0.006539,
0.006708,
0.006825,
0.0069
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004645,
0.011445,
0.020546,
0.031163,
0.042979,
0.054969,
0.066544,
0.077974,
0.08581,
0.089119,
0.087282,
0.081415,
0.07283,
0.062738,
0.05213,
0.041759,
0.032148,
0.023632,
0.016385,
0.010472
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.00017,
-0.000269,
-0.000542,
-0.001023,
-0.00172,
-0.002549,
-0.003427,
-0.004329,
-0.005072,
-0.005568,
-0.005733,
-0.005597,
-0.005223,
-0.004683,
-0.004043,
-0.003356,
-0.002668,
-0.00201,
-0.001406,
-0.000873
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-7e-06,
-3.9e-05,
-0.000115,
-0.000257,
-0.000476,
-0.000771,
-0.001139,
-0.001575,
-0.002059,
-0.002555,
-0.003029,
-0.003452,
-0.003806,
-0.004077,
-0.004261,
-0.004358,
-0.004373,
-0.004313,
-0.004189
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.012237,
-0.027532,
-0.04021,
-0.051218,
-0.061327,
-0.071192,
-0.08141,
-0.092521,
-0.098672,
-0.100991,
-0.100508,
-0.098144,
-0.094653,
-0.090621,
-0.086485,
-0.082559,
-0.079048,
-0.076078,
-0.073707,
-0.071944
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.010168,
-0.017552,
-0.018677,
-0.01767,
-0.016329,
-0.015403,
-0.015186,
-0.015742,
-0.011857,
-0.006884,
-0.002342,
0.001202,
0.003644,
0.005082,
0.00569,
0.005664,
0.005184,
0.004413,
0.003482,
0.002494
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00048,
0.000774,
0.001599,
0.003076,
0.00524,
0.007849,
0.010638,
0.013516,
0.015954,
0.017667,
0.018369,
0.018106,
0.017056,
0.015429,
0.013428,
0.011232,
0.008986,
0.006807,
0.004779,
0.002965
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000124,
-0.000293,
-0.000631,
-0.001264,
-0.002293,
-0.003732,
-0.005526,
-0.007607,
-0.00979,
-0.011864,
-0.013595,
-0.014823,
-0.015474,
-0.015544,
-0.015085,
-0.014179,
-0.012926,
-0.011431,
-0.009793,
-0.008102
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
1.3e-05,
3.8e-05,
8.4e-05,
0.000154,
0.000245,
0.000357,
0.000486,
0.000626,
0.000763,
0.000886,
0.000988,
0.001062,
0.001106,
0.00112,
0.001106,
0.001068,
0.001009,
0.000933
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000598,
0.000963,
0.001986,
0.003814,
0.00649,
0.009713,
0.013157,
0.01671,
0.019713,
0.021817,
0.022669,
0.02233,
0.021023,
0.019008,
0.016537,
0.013828,
0.011061,
0.008378,
0.005885,
0.003655
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013349,
0.030074,
0.044054,
0.056391,
0.067973,
0.079488,
0.091521,
0.104601,
0.112307,
0.115765,
0.115955,
0.113791,
0.110065,
0.105432,
0.100417,
0.095421,
0.090739,
0.086569,
0.083034,
0.080191
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000733,
-0.002041,
-0.003419,
-0.004617,
-0.005557,
-0.006259,
-0.006795,
-0.007253,
-0.007345,
-0.007002,
-0.0063,
-0.005375,
-0.004367,
-0.003389,
-0.002523,
-0.001817,
-0.001289,
-0.000938,
-0.000747,
-0.000691
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
7e-06,
3.5e-05,
0.000103,
0.000227,
0.000415,
0.000663,
0.000965,
0.001314,
0.001691,
0.002061,
0.002395,
0.00267,
0.002869,
0.002989,
0.003027,
0.002989,
0.002885,
0.002726,
0.002523
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001162,
-0.001118,
-0.00103,
-0.000897,
-0.000725,
-0.000521,
-0.000295,
-5.1e-05,
0.000209,
0.00047,
0.00072,
0.000947,
0.001142,
0.001304,
0.001432,
0.001532,
0.001607,
0.001665,
0.001711,
0.001751
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000733,
0.002041,
0.003419,
0.004617,
0.005557,
0.006259,
0.006795,
0.007253,
0.007345,
0.007002,
0.0063,
0.005375,
0.004367,
0.003389,
0.002523,
0.001817,
0.001289,
0.000938,
0.000747,
0.000691
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.03484,
0.041122,
0.045834,
0.048571,
0.049291,
0.048161,
0.045435,
0.041377,
0.036212,
0.030458,
0.024698,
0.019423,
0.014973,
0.011524,
0.009116,
0.007688,
0.007111,
0.00722,
0.007833,
0.008771
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.070611,
0.070615,
0.069546,
0.067387,
0.064321,
0.060583,
0.056374,
0.05182,
0.046958,
0.042081,
0.037544,
0.033632,
0.030512,
0.028229,
0.026731,
0.025896,
0.025564,
0.025565,
0.02573,
0.025914
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.088017,
0.087918,
0.08661,
0.084042,
0.080369,
0.075808,
0.070562,
0.064773,
0.058513,
0.05209,
0.045866,
0.040144,
0.03511,
0.030841,
0.027317,
0.02445,
0.022117,
0.020174,
0.018481,
0.016911
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020919,
0.020122,
0.018547,
0.016152,
0.013046,
0.009383,
0.005304,
0.00091,
-0.003753,
-0.008466,
-0.012968,
-0.017043,
-0.020558,
-0.023464,
-0.025779,
-0.02757,
-0.028933,
-0.029975,
-0.030802,
-0.031511
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.0255,
-0.019625,
0.004968,
0.032242,
0.062171,
0.094634,
0.129635,
0.167395,
0.210788,
0.243604,
0.266313,
0.279765,
0.285174,
0.283975,
0.277671,
0.267703,
0.255372,
0.24179,
0.227868,
0.214315
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.050361,
-0.123346,
-0.201388,
-0.290375,
-0.394499,
-0.516541,
-0.658213,
-0.820457,
-0.924152,
-0.979918,
-0.997143,
-0.984409,
-0.949494,
-0.89925,
-0.839521,
-0.775105,
-0.709768,
-0.646338,
-0.586778,
-0.532389
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0303,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.2094,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2493,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_es
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_es",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "ES",
"name": "Spain"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000819,
0.001079,
0.001673,
0.002613,
0.003871,
0.005347,
0.006976,
0.008757,
0.009823,
0.010255,
0.010152,
0.009699,
0.00905,
0.008304,
0.007522,
0.006745,
0.005998,
0.0053,
0.004644,
0.004058
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000697,
0.001361,
0.001839,
0.00216,
0.002441,
0.002756,
0.00315,
0.00366,
0.003835,
0.003722,
0.003439,
0.003118,
0.002844,
0.002647,
0.002521,
0.002446,
0.002396,
0.002351,
0.002287,
0.002204
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.006603,
-0.012368,
-0.01428,
-0.014301,
-0.013632,
-0.012959,
-0.012663,
-0.012911,
-0.01038,
-0.006805,
-0.003282,
-0.000362,
0.001759,
0.003089,
0.00373,
0.003825,
0.003522,
0.002957,
0.002247,
0.001482
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.044018,
-0.099395,
-0.144874,
-0.183883,
-0.219266,
-0.253622,
-0.289314,
-0.328311,
-0.3498,
-0.358026,
-0.356819,
-0.34933,
-0.338048,
-0.324883,
-0.311267,
-0.298232,
-0.286479,
-0.276443,
-0.268315,
-0.262163
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00015,
0.000423,
0.000856,
0.001469,
0.002272,
0.003263,
0.004438,
0.0058,
0.007231,
0.008618,
0.009875,
0.010948,
0.011816,
0.012478,
0.012946,
0.013243,
0.013394,
0.013424,
0.013356,
0.013215
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.03715,
0.097911,
0.171055,
0.252032,
0.337818,
0.426773,
0.518385,
0.612504,
0.446682,
0.30488,
0.18645,
0.150504,
0.12227,
0.094901,
0.070654,
-0.089218,
-0.096019,
-0.093063,
-0.082957,
-0.068022
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014187,
0.035236,
0.061151,
0.090421,
0.12198,
0.155069,
0.189372,
0.224832,
0.171059,
0.124121,
0.083979,
0.050883,
0.024821,
0.00543,
-0.007943,
-0.016123,
-0.020013,
-0.020514,
-0.018514,
-0.014735
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.018337,
-0.021643,
-0.024123,
-0.025564,
-0.025943,
-0.025348,
-0.023913,
-0.021777,
-0.019059,
-0.016031,
-0.012999,
-0.010222,
-0.00788,
-0.006065,
-0.004798,
-0.004046,
-0.003743,
-0.0038,
-0.004123,
-0.004616
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.015691,
-0.015692,
-0.015455,
-0.014975,
-0.014293,
-0.013463,
-0.012528,
-0.011516,
-0.010435,
-0.009351,
-0.008343,
-0.007474,
-0.00678,
-0.006273,
-0.00594,
-0.005755,
-0.005681,
-0.005681,
-0.005718,
-0.005759
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.010734,
-0.010722,
-0.010562,
-0.010249,
-0.009801,
-0.009245,
-0.008605,
-0.007899,
-0.007136,
-0.006352,
-0.005593,
-0.004896,
-0.004282,
-0.003761,
-0.003331,
-0.002982,
-0.002697,
-0.00246,
-0.002254,
-0.002062
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.2e-05,
5.8e-05,
0.000161,
0.000339,
0.000591,
0.000905,
0.001275,
0.001696,
0.002144,
0.002583,
0.002993,
0.003366,
0.003696,
0.003978,
0.004207,
0.004379,
0.004489,
0.004533,
0.004513
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000701,
-0.002605,
-0.005723,
-0.009858,
-0.014766,
-0.020234,
-0.02612,
-0.032361,
-0.038603,
-0.044439,
-0.049531,
-0.053658,
-0.056724,
-0.058733,
-0.059769,
-0.059966,
-0.05948,
-0.058478,
-0.05712
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.006688,
0.01554,
0.025836,
0.036062,
0.045646,
0.054345,
0.062421,
0.070462,
0.073436,
0.07208,
0.067128,
0.05999,
0.051896,
0.043771,
0.036243,
0.029699,
0.024326,
0.020168,
0.017087,
0.015052
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.3e-05,
0.000111,
0.00024,
0.000421,
0.000649,
0.000921,
0.001233,
0.001585,
0.001952,
0.002313,
0.002648,
0.002948,
0.003208,
0.003427,
0.003608,
0.003756,
0.003878,
0.003979,
0.004064,
0.004139
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004682,
0.010878,
0.018085,
0.025243,
0.031952,
0.038042,
0.043695,
0.049323,
0.051405,
0.050456,
0.046989,
0.041993,
0.036327,
0.03064,
0.02537,
0.02079,
0.017028,
0.014117,
0.011961,
0.010537
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000179,
-0.000237,
-0.000369,
-0.000578,
-0.000861,
-0.001193,
-0.00156,
-0.001962,
-0.002207,
-0.002312,
-0.002297,
-0.002201,
-0.002058,
-0.001891,
-0.001712,
-0.001533,
-0.001359,
-0.001195,
-0.00104,
-0.000901
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-1e-06,
-3e-06,
-7e-06,
-1.6e-05,
-2.9e-05,
-4.5e-05,
-6.6e-05,
-9e-05,
-0.000118,
-0.000147,
-0.000176,
-0.000206,
-0.000235,
-0.000262,
-0.000288,
-0.000313,
-0.000334,
-0.000352,
-0.000368
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.006676,
-0.015113,
-0.022394,
-0.029203,
-0.036069,
-0.043281,
-0.05098,
-0.059306,
-0.064976,
-0.068352,
-0.069641,
-0.069129,
-0.067178,
-0.064182,
-0.060525,
-0.056549,
-0.052537,
-0.04871,
-0.045222,
-0.042182
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.004622,
-0.008658,
-0.009996,
-0.010011,
-0.009542,
-0.009071,
-0.008864,
-0.009037,
-0.007266,
-0.004763,
-0.002297,
-0.000254,
0.001231,
0.002162,
0.002611,
0.002678,
0.002466,
0.00207,
0.001573,
0.001037
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000491,
0.000649,
0.001011,
0.001586,
0.002361,
0.003273,
0.00428,
0.00538,
0.006052,
0.006341,
0.0063,
0.006038,
0.005646,
0.005186,
0.004697,
0.004204,
0.003726,
0.003277,
0.002852,
0.002473
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-8.6e-05,
-0.000178,
-0.000309,
-0.000506,
-0.000786,
-0.001151,
-0.001596,
-0.002116,
-0.002619,
-0.003041,
-0.003346,
-0.003528,
-0.003596,
-0.003569,
-0.003467,
-0.003308,
-0.003111,
-0.00289,
-0.002655,
-0.002417
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
4e-06,
7e-06,
1.1e-05,
1.5e-05,
1.9e-05,
2.2e-05,
2.4e-05,
2.4e-05,
2e-05,
9e-06,
-1.6e-05,
-6.2e-05,
-0.000111,
-0.000159,
-0.000203,
-0.000241,
-0.000272
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
2e-06,
2e-06,
3e-06,
3e-06,
4e-06
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000604,
0.000795,
0.001233,
0.001925,
0.002853,
0.003941,
0.005141,
0.006454,
0.00724,
0.007558,
0.007482,
0.007148,
0.00667,
0.00612,
0.005544,
0.004971,
0.004421,
0.003906,
0.003423,
0.002991
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.013369,
0.029991,
0.043591,
0.055131,
0.065416,
0.075242,
0.085389,
0.096509,
0.102218,
0.103921,
0.102936,
0.10033,
0.09689,
0.09317,
0.089546,
0.086263,
0.083464,
0.081223,
0.079544,
0.078414
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000733,
-0.002041,
-0.003419,
-0.004617,
-0.005557,
-0.006259,
-0.006795,
-0.007253,
-0.007345,
-0.007002,
-0.0063,
-0.005375,
-0.004367,
-0.003389,
-0.002523,
-0.001817,
-0.001289,
-0.000938,
-0.000747,
-0.000691
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
4e-06,
1e-05,
2e-05,
3.3e-05,
4.5e-05,
5.6e-05,
6.6e-05,
7.1e-05,
7e-05,
5.9e-05,
2.8e-05,
-2e-05,
-7.7e-05,
-0.000138,
-0.000197,
-0.000251,
-0.000298,
-0.000337
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00293,
-0.008166,
-0.013676,
-0.018467,
-0.022226,
-0.025035,
-0.02718,
-0.029014,
-0.029381,
-0.028007,
-0.025199,
-0.021501,
-0.017467,
-0.013557,
-0.010093,
-0.007267,
-0.005155,
-0.003751,
-0.002988,
-0.002764
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001162,
-0.001118,
-0.00103,
-0.000897,
-0.000725,
-0.000521,
-0.000295,
-5.1e-05,
0.000209,
0.00047,
0.00072,
0.000947,
0.001142,
0.001304,
0.001432,
0.001532,
0.001607,
0.001665,
0.001711,
0.001751
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000733,
0.002041,
0.003419,
0.004617,
0.005557,
0.006259,
0.006795,
0.007253,
0.007345,
0.007002,
0.0063,
0.005375,
0.004367,
0.003389,
0.002523,
0.001817,
0.001289,
0.000938,
0.000747,
0.000691
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.03484,
0.041122,
0.045834,
0.048571,
0.049291,
0.048161,
0.045435,
0.041377,
0.036212,
0.030458,
0.024698,
0.019423,
0.014973,
0.011524,
0.009116,
0.007688,
0.007111,
0.00722,
0.007833,
0.008771
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.070611,
0.070615,
0.069546,
0.067387,
0.064321,
0.060583,
0.056374,
0.05182,
0.046958,
0.042081,
0.037544,
0.033632,
0.030512,
0.028229,
0.026731,
0.025896,
0.025564,
0.025565,
0.02573,
0.025914
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.088017,
0.087918,
0.08661,
0.084042,
0.080369,
0.075808,
0.070562,
0.064773,
0.058513,
0.05209,
0.045866,
0.040144,
0.03511,
0.030841,
0.027317,
0.02445,
0.022117,
0.020174,
0.018481,
0.016911
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020919,
0.020122,
0.018547,
0.016152,
0.013046,
0.009383,
0.005304,
0.00091,
-0.003753,
-0.008466,
-0.012968,
-0.017043,
-0.020558,
-0.023464,
-0.025779,
-0.02757,
-0.028933,
-0.029975,
-0.030802,
-0.031511
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.032174,
-0.032192,
-0.01245,
0.008115,
0.028808,
0.049523,
0.07066,
0.092822,
0.12614,
0.152239,
0.171467,
0.184474,
0.192109,
0.195309,
0.195021,
0.192128,
0.18743,
0.181608,
0.175188,
0.168623
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.050361,
-0.123138,
-0.200391,
-0.287676,
-0.388978,
-0.507251,
-0.644607,
-0.802293,
-0.90135,
-0.952948,
-0.967208,
-0.95312,
-0.918518,
-0.870073,
-0.813316,
-0.75269,
-0.691621,
-0.632628,
-0.577397,
-0.527043
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0103,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.1205,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2248,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_pl
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_pl",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "PL",
"name": "Poland"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001266,
0.001643,
0.00251,
0.003907,
0.005804,
0.008078,
0.010617,
0.013353,
0.014885,
0.015386,
0.015023,
0.014005,
0.012507,
0.010669,
0.008614,
0.00646,
0.00432,
0.002303,
0.000502,
-0.00101
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001182,
0.002031,
0.002293,
0.002291,
0.002374,
0.002695,
0.003275,
0.004076,
0.004271,
0.004074,
0.003739,
0.003418,
0.003146,
0.00289,
0.002602,
0.002247,
0.001815,
0.001317,
0.000785,
0.000255
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.008816,
-0.013629,
-0.012315,
-0.00962,
-0.007305,
-0.005801,
-0.00507,
-0.004938,
-0.000912,
0.003412,
0.006634,
0.008462,
0.009064,
0.008747,
0.007815,
0.006527,
0.005081,
0.003623,
0.002253,
0.001036
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00529,
-0.012868,
-0.018494,
-0.021325,
-0.021893,
-0.021046,
-0.019552,
-0.017971,
-0.014069,
-0.008019,
-0.000973,
0.005861,
0.011593,
0.015727,
0.018109,
0.018822,
0.018103,
0.016265,
0.013642,
0.010554
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.034985,
-0.0719,
-0.094464,
-0.109093,
-0.119973,
-0.129768,
-0.140147,
-0.152041,
-0.1488,
-0.136733,
-0.120486,
-0.103109,
-0.086438,
-0.071487,
-0.058734,
-0.048328,
-0.040216,
-0.034229,
-0.03013,
-0.027653
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000236,
0.000624,
0.001187,
0.001937,
0.002893,
0.004067,
0.005473,
0.007121,
0.008818,
0.010402,
0.011757,
0.012816,
0.013551,
0.01396,
0.014058,
0.013875,
0.013447,
0.012818,
0.012038,
0.011157
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.02204,
0.053615,
0.085267,
0.125632,
0.168394,
0.212736,
0.258402,
0.305318,
0.22266,
0.151975,
0.092941,
0.045388,
-0.048302,
-0.065531,
-0.075453,
-0.078426,
-0.075431,
-0.067772,
-0.056841,
-0.043975
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.017965,
0.044304,
0.076764,
0.113507,
0.153202,
0.194933,
0.238275,
0.283036,
0.215875,
0.15699,
0.106393,
0.06431,
0.030663,
0.004996,
-0.013443,
-0.025572,
-0.032383,
-0.034859,
-0.033926,
-0.030426
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.017305,
-0.018402,
-0.017796,
-0.015606,
-0.012208,
-0.008022,
-0.003425,
0.001282,
0.005881,
0.009903,
0.012938,
0.014765,
0.015352,
0.014814,
0.013357,
0.011228,
0.008678,
0.005941,
0.003218,
0.00067
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001641,
-0.001012,
-0.000165,
0.000813,
0.001801,
0.002706,
0.003482,
0.004123,
0.004647,
0.00496,
0.004975,
0.004657,
0.00403,
0.003157,
0.002126,
0.001026,
-5.6e-05,
-0.001051,
-0.001904,
-0.002581
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002351,
-0.002177,
-0.001797,
-0.001264,
-0.000648,
-1e-05,
0.000613,
0.001205,
0.001759,
0.002218,
0.002525,
0.002656,
0.002615,
0.002428,
0.002135,
0.001779,
0.001402,
0.001039,
0.000719,
0.00046
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.5e-05,
7.8e-05,
0.000229,
0.000498,
0.000891,
0.001392,
0.001977,
0.002619,
0.003267,
0.003861,
0.004351,
0.004696,
0.004864,
0.004832,
0.004592,
0.004152,
0.003537,
0.002785,
0.001944
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000977,
-0.0033,
-0.006586,
-0.010346,
-0.014208,
-0.017944,
-0.021447,
-0.024698,
-0.027251,
-0.028705,
-0.02886,
-0.027714,
-0.02542,
-0.022218,
-0.018395,
-0.014236,
-0.010008,
-0.005936,
-0.002201
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.011479,
0.024288,
0.035676,
0.044433,
0.051198,
0.056804,
0.062083,
0.067722,
0.065108,
0.056535,
0.044168,
0.030439,
0.017139,
0.005377,
-0.004278,
-0.011611,
-0.016652,
-0.019566,
-0.020601,
-0.020042
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
5.7e-05,
0.000179,
0.000357,
0.000579,
0.000835,
0.001119,
0.00143,
0.001768,
0.002094,
0.002377,
0.002597,
0.00275,
0.002835,
0.002862,
0.002841,
0.002783,
0.0027,
0.002602,
0.002499,
0.002399
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.008035,
0.017002,
0.024973,
0.031103,
0.035839,
0.039763,
0.043458,
0.047406,
0.045575,
0.039575,
0.030917,
0.021307,
0.011997,
0.003764,
-0.002994,
-0.008128,
-0.011656,
-0.013696,
-0.014421,
-0.01403
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000253,
-0.000329,
-0.000504,
-0.000788,
-0.001174,
-0.001637,
-0.002155,
-0.002713,
-0.00303,
-0.00314,
-0.003074,
-0.002874,
-0.002573,
-0.002202,
-0.001784,
-0.001344,
-0.000907,
-0.000493,
-0.000122,
0.000189
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.007506,
-0.015397,
-0.020592,
-0.024585,
-0.028343,
-0.032329,
-0.036702,
-0.041517,
-0.043029,
-0.042345,
-0.040141,
-0.03691,
-0.03304,
-0.028847,
-0.024586,
-0.02046,
-0.016623,
-0.013183,
-0.010212,
-0.007743
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.006171,
-0.00954,
-0.008621,
-0.006734,
-0.005114,
-0.004061,
-0.003549,
-0.003456,
-0.000639,
0.002388,
0.004644,
0.005923,
0.006345,
0.006123,
0.005471,
0.004569,
0.003557,
0.002536,
0.001577,
0.000725
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00076,
0.000987,
0.001513,
0.002363,
0.003521,
0.004911,
0.006464,
0.008138,
0.00909,
0.009419,
0.009222,
0.008621,
0.00772,
0.006606,
0.005352,
0.004033,
0.00272,
0.001479,
0.000367,
-0.000568
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000133,
-0.000272,
-0.000468,
-0.000761,
-0.00118,
-0.001733,
-0.002415,
-0.003213,
-0.003973,
-0.004595,
-0.005024,
-0.005238,
-0.005242,
-0.005052,
-0.004693,
-0.004198,
-0.003602,
-0.002944,
-0.00226,
-0.001589
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
2e-06,
3e-06,
5e-06,
6e-06,
7e-06,
7e-06,
7e-06,
3e-06,
-1.4e-05,
-4.5e-05,
-8.2e-05,
-0.000119,
-0.000155,
-0.000187,
-0.000213,
-0.000231,
-0.000242
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1e-06,
2e-06,
3e-06,
4e-06,
5e-06,
6e-06,
6e-06,
7e-06
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000794,
0.00103,
0.001574,
0.00245,
0.003639,
0.005065,
0.006657,
0.008372,
0.009333,
0.009647,
0.009419,
0.008781,
0.007842,
0.00669,
0.005401,
0.00405,
0.002709,
0.001444,
0.000315,
-0.000633
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.01085,
0.02197,
0.028754,
0.033043,
0.036023,
0.038513,
0.041096,
0.044121,
0.042247,
0.037575,
0.031756,
0.025881,
0.020565,
0.016095,
0.012558,
0.009929,
0.008124,
0.007036,
0.006549,
0.006549
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001322,
-0.003217,
-0.004623,
-0.005331,
-0.005473,
-0.005261,
-0.004888,
-0.004493,
-0.003517,
-0.002005,
-0.000243,
0.001465,
0.002898,
0.003932,
0.004527,
0.004706,
0.004526,
0.004066,
0.00341,
0.002639
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
2e-06,
5e-06,
1e-05,
1.6e-05,
2e-05,
2.3e-05,
2.5e-05,
2.3e-05,
1e-05,
-1.5e-05,
-5e-05,
-9.1e-05,
-0.000133,
-0.000172,
-0.000208,
-0.000236,
-0.000257,
-0.000269
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00529,
-0.012868,
-0.018494,
-0.021325,
-0.021893,
-0.021046,
-0.019552,
-0.017971,
-0.014069,
-0.008019,
-0.000973,
0.005861,
0.011593,
0.015727,
0.018109,
0.018822,
0.018103,
0.016265,
0.013642,
0.010554
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
8.5e-05,
0.000128,
0.000234,
0.000387,
0.000564,
0.000746,
0.00092,
0.001082,
0.001231,
0.001347,
0.001413,
0.001419,
0.001369,
0.001271,
0.001137,
0.000984,
0.000825,
0.000672,
0.000534,
0.000418
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001322,
0.003217,
0.004623,
0.005331,
0.005473,
0.005261,
0.004888,
0.004493,
0.003517,
0.002005,
0.000243,
-0.001465,
-0.002898,
-0.003932,
-0.004527,
-0.004706,
-0.004526,
-0.004066,
-0.00341,
-0.002639
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.032879,
0.034964,
0.033812,
0.029651,
0.023194,
0.015242,
0.006508,
-0.002436,
-0.011175,
-0.018816,
-0.024583,
-0.028054,
-0.029169,
-0.028147,
-0.025379,
-0.021333,
-0.016488,
-0.011288,
-0.006115,
-0.001274
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.007385,
0.004554,
0.000743,
-0.00366,
-0.008103,
-0.012176,
-0.01567,
-0.018552,
-0.020911,
-0.022322,
-0.022388,
-0.020957,
-0.018133,
-0.014207,
-0.009565,
-0.004619,
0.000252,
0.004729,
0.00857,
0.011614
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.01928,
0.017852,
0.014739,
0.010364,
0.005317,
8.4e-05,
-0.00503,
-0.009877,
-0.014424,
-0.018185,
-0.020708,
-0.021781,
-0.021441,
-0.019908,
-0.017505,
-0.014588,
-0.011497,
-0.008522,
-0.005893,
-0.003769
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001531,
-0.002305,
-0.004217,
-0.006974,
-0.010157,
-0.013425,
-0.016566,
-0.019482,
-0.022159,
-0.024249,
-0.025428,
-0.025548,
-0.02464,
-0.022869,
-0.020475,
-0.01772,
-0.014856,
-0.012098,
-0.009613,
-0.00752
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.039006,
-0.056814,
-0.061828,
-0.068462,
-0.075524,
-0.082943,
-0.091116,
-0.100613,
-0.096771,
-0.094867,
-0.093488,
-0.092097,
-0.09064,
-0.089268,
-0.088171,
-0.087511,
-0.087385,
-0.087826,
-0.088811,
-0.090282
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.041328,
-0.095644,
-0.149981,
-0.212886,
-0.289685,
-0.383398,
-0.49544,
-0.626023,
-0.700351,
-0.731655,
-0.730875,
-0.706898,
-0.666909,
-0.616677,
-0.560783,
-0.502787,
-0.445358,
-0.390414,
-0.339211,
-0.292533
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0154,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0499,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.283,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_se
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_se",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "SE",
"name": "Sweden"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000737,
0.000982,
0.00156,
0.002501,
0.00379,
0.00532,
0.006991,
0.008766,
0.00984,
0.010252,
0.010049,
0.009374,
0.008366,
0.007141,
0.005795,
0.004408,
0.003048,
0.001774,
0.000633,
-0.000338
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000676,
0.001202,
0.001451,
0.001572,
0.001746,
0.002049,
0.002487,
0.00305,
0.003289,
0.00327,
0.003094,
0.002852,
0.002588,
0.002314,
0.002023,
0.001706,
0.001361,
0.000994,
0.000619,
0.000253
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.006701,
-0.010748,
-0.010237,
-0.008236,
-0.006158,
-0.004554,
-0.003575,
-0.003184,
-0.000179,
0.003138,
0.005711,
0.007226,
0.007739,
0.007456,
0.006617,
0.005445,
0.004123,
0.00279,
0.001545,
0.000453
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003217,
-0.008189,
-0.012415,
-0.015044,
-0.0161,
-0.015969,
-0.015129,
-0.014011,
-0.011457,
-0.007476,
-0.002677,
0.002204,
0.006552,
0.009958,
0.012225,
0.013327,
0.01336,
0.012497,
0.010949,
0.008935
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.034813,
-0.071841,
-0.095693,
-0.111805,
-0.124036,
-0.134948,
-0.146186,
-0.15881,
-0.157426,
-0.147261,
-0.132054,
-0.114501,
-0.096519,
-0.079414,
-0.064017,
-0.050801,
-0.039969,
-0.031528,
-0.025345,
-0.021195
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000133,
0.000362,
0.000709,
0.001189,
0.001815,
0.002592,
0.003518,
0.004596,
0.005713,
0.006769,
0.007683,
0.008401,
0.008902,
0.009182,
0.009254,
0.009139,
0.008865,
0.008463,
0.007965,
0.007403
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.026111,
0.068817,
0.120226,
0.177141,
0.237435,
0.299957,
0.364347,
0.430499,
0.31395,
0.214285,
0.131046,
0.063997,
-0.040947,
-0.062236,
-0.076406,
-0.083294,
-0.083501,
-0.078107,
-0.06843,
-0.055844
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.01476,
0.036024,
0.062487,
0.09271,
0.125631,
0.160369,
0.196444,
0.233686,
0.181021,
0.134471,
0.093941,
0.059729,
0.031942,
0.010364,
-0.005496,
-0.016298,
-0.02279,
-0.025735,
-0.025864,
-0.023842
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012509,
-0.013539,
-0.01345,
-0.012233,
-0.010077,
-0.007245,
-0.004004,
-0.000585,
0.002832,
0.005934,
0.008431,
0.010134,
0.010975,
0.010989,
0.010282,
0.009004,
0.007325,
0.005414,
0.003422,
0.001481
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001584,
-0.00109,
-0.000465,
0.000255,
0.001003,
0.001711,
0.002338,
0.002865,
0.003297,
0.003579,
0.003654,
0.003496,
0.00311,
0.002533,
0.001818,
0.001025,
0.000216,
-0.000555,
-0.001245,
-0.001821
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001922,
-0.001823,
-0.001586,
-0.001231,
-0.0008,
-0.000334,
0.000135,
0.000589,
0.001018,
0.001387,
0.001657,
0.001808,
0.001837,
0.001756,
0.001589,
0.001363,
0.001107,
0.000848,
0.000608,
0.000404
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.1e-05,
5.7e-05,
0.000165,
0.000356,
0.000636,
0.00099,
0.001406,
0.001868,
0.002339,
0.002772,
0.003128,
0.003381,
0.003516,
0.003526,
0.003411,
0.00318,
0.002846,
0.00243,
0.001956
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000719,
-0.002475,
-0.00504,
-0.008052,
-0.011195,
-0.014247,
-0.01709,
-0.019687,
-0.021729,
-0.022925,
-0.023117,
-0.022294,
-0.020564,
-0.01811,
-0.015154,
-0.011924,
-0.008634,
-0.005466,
-0.002564
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.006889,
0.015283,
0.023599,
0.030593,
0.036216,
0.040645,
0.04432,
0.047835,
0.046429,
0.04105,
0.032736,
0.023071,
0.013374,
0.004563,
-0.002814,
-0.008495,
-0.012438,
-0.014739,
-0.01559,
-0.015218
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.4e-05,
0.000111,
0.000229,
0.000382,
0.000563,
0.000766,
0.000988,
0.001227,
0.001459,
0.001664,
0.001828,
0.001943,
0.00201,
0.002033,
0.002019,
0.001976,
0.001914,
0.001841,
0.001763,
0.001687
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004823,
0.010698,
0.01652,
0.021415,
0.025351,
0.028452,
0.031024,
0.033484,
0.0325,
0.028735,
0.022915,
0.01615,
0.009362,
0.003194,
-0.00197,
-0.005947,
-0.008706,
-0.010318,
-0.010913,
-0.010652
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000157,
-0.000207,
-0.000325,
-0.000515,
-0.000773,
-0.001076,
-0.001406,
-0.001758,
-0.00196,
-0.002025,
-0.001967,
-0.001818,
-0.001607,
-0.001359,
-0.001092,
-0.000821,
-0.000557,
-0.000313,
-9.6e-05,
8.6e-05
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-4e-06,
-2e-05,
-5.8e-05,
-0.000127,
-0.000231,
-0.000367,
-0.000532,
-0.000721,
-0.000923,
-0.00112,
-0.001299,
-0.001447,
-0.001557,
-0.001623,
-0.001641,
-0.001613,
-0.00154,
-0.001428,
-0.001283
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.00617,
-0.012703,
-0.017043,
-0.020189,
-0.022846,
-0.025428,
-0.028162,
-0.031186,
-0.031703,
-0.030555,
-0.0283,
-0.025365,
-0.022091,
-0.018746,
-0.015527,
-0.012574,
-0.009976,
-0.007782,
-0.006003,
-0.004631
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.004691,
-0.007524,
-0.007166,
-0.005765,
-0.004311,
-0.003188,
-0.002503,
-0.002229,
-0.000125,
0.002197,
0.003998,
0.005059,
0.005418,
0.005219,
0.004632,
0.003811,
0.002886,
0.001953,
0.001082,
0.000317
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000442,
0.00059,
0.000941,
0.001515,
0.002304,
0.003242,
0.004268,
0.005358,
0.006027,
0.006297,
0.006192,
0.005794,
0.005188,
0.004444,
0.003621,
0.002768,
0.001929,
0.00114,
0.000432,
-0.000173
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000114,
-0.000238,
-0.00042,
-0.000703,
-0.001115,
-0.00166,
-0.002329,
-0.003105,
-0.003854,
-0.00448,
-0.004917,
-0.005141,
-0.005152,
-0.004971,
-0.004627,
-0.004153,
-0.003587,
-0.002966,
-0.002322,
-0.001689
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
2e-06,
6e-06,
1.2e-05,
2e-05,
3e-05,
4.2e-05,
5.4e-05,
6.6e-05,
7.6e-05,
8.3e-05,
8.7e-05,
8.7e-05,
8.5e-05,
8.1e-05,
7.4e-05,
6.3e-05,
4.8e-05,
3.2e-05
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000527,
0.000702,
0.001115,
0.001788,
0.00271,
0.003804,
0.004998,
0.006268,
0.007036,
0.00733,
0.007185,
0.006702,
0.005982,
0.005106,
0.004144,
0.003152,
0.002179,
0.001268,
0.000452,
-0.000242
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.010606,
0.021721,
0.028825,
0.033479,
0.036792,
0.039549,
0.042313,
0.045462,
0.044238,
0.040342,
0.035073,
0.029363,
0.023828,
0.018844,
0.014608,
0.011198,
0.008614,
0.006802,
0.005675,
0.005133
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000804,
-0.002047,
-0.003104,
-0.003761,
-0.004025,
-0.003992,
-0.003782,
-0.003503,
-0.002864,
-0.001869,
-0.000669,
0.000551,
0.001638,
0.002489,
0.003056,
0.003332,
0.00334,
0.003124,
0.002737,
0.002234
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
5e-06,
1.4e-05,
3e-05,
5.2e-05,
7.8e-05,
0.000107,
0.000138,
0.000168,
0.000194,
0.000212,
0.000222,
0.000224,
0.000218,
0.000207,
0.00019,
0.000162,
0.000124,
8.1e-05
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003217,
-0.008189,
-0.012415,
-0.015044,
-0.0161,
-0.015969,
-0.015129,
-0.014011,
-0.011457,
-0.007476,
-0.002677,
0.002204,
0.006552,
0.009958,
0.012225,
0.013327,
0.01336,
0.012497,
0.010949,
0.008935
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
9.7e-05,
0.000122,
0.000189,
0.000291,
0.000414,
0.000546,
0.000677,
0.000801,
0.000916,
0.001009,
0.001069,
0.00109,
0.001069,
0.001012,
0.000927,
0.000824,
0.000711,
0.000598,
0.000492,
0.000399
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000804,
0.002047,
0.003104,
0.003761,
0.004025,
0.003992,
0.003782,
0.003503,
0.002864,
0.001869,
0.000669,
-0.000551,
-0.001638,
-0.002489,
-0.003056,
-0.003332,
-0.00334,
-0.003124,
-0.002737,
-0.002234
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.023767,
0.025724,
0.025555,
0.023242,
0.019146,
0.013766,
0.007608,
0.001112,
-0.005381,
-0.011275,
-0.016018,
-0.019255,
-0.020853,
-0.020879,
-0.019535,
-0.017108,
-0.013918,
-0.010286,
-0.006502,
-0.002814
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.007127,
0.004904,
0.002095,
-0.00115,
-0.004511,
-0.007699,
-0.010519,
-0.012892,
-0.014836,
-0.016105,
-0.016444,
-0.015732,
-0.013997,
-0.0114,
-0.008181,
-0.004614,
-0.000973,
0.002499,
0.005603,
0.008193
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.015764,
0.014952,
0.013006,
0.010095,
0.006561,
0.002741,
-0.001108,
-0.004828,
-0.008351,
-0.011372,
-0.013589,
-0.014827,
-0.015063,
-0.014401,
-0.013028,
-0.011176,
-0.009079,
-0.006955,
-0.004986,
-0.003312
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001747,
-0.002202,
-0.0034,
-0.00523,
-0.007454,
-0.009834,
-0.012192,
-0.014424,
-0.016488,
-0.018167,
-0.01925,
-0.019612,
-0.019244,
-0.018223,
-0.016694,
-0.014825,
-0.012793,
-0.010758,
-0.008854,
-0.007184
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.029796,
-0.046504,
-0.053476,
-0.061074,
-0.068772,
-0.076684,
-0.085191,
-0.094751,
-0.094218,
-0.094405,
-0.094721,
-0.094966,
-0.095125,
-0.095255,
-0.095435,
-0.095741,
-0.096223,
-0.096915,
-0.097827,
-0.098959
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.041156,
-0.095585,
-0.15121,
-0.215598,
-0.293748,
-0.388577,
-0.501479,
-0.632792,
-0.708976,
-0.742183,
-0.742443,
-0.718291,
-0.67699,
-0.624604,
-0.566066,
-0.505259,
-0.44511,
-0.387713,
-0.334426,
-0.286075
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0103,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0375,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2337,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_th
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_th",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "TH",
"name": "Thailand"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001487,
0.002046,
0.00344,
0.005743,
0.008866,
0.012507,
0.01639,
0.020397,
0.022905,
0.023959,
0.023567,
0.021945,
0.019367,
0.016119,
0.012478,
0.008703,
0.005022,
0.001626,
-0.001341,
-0.003781
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002631,
0.003073,
0.002302,
0.002247,
0.003107,
0.004576,
0.006338,
0.00821,
0.008538,
0.008719,
0.008836,
0.008731,
0.008283,
0.007464,
0.00631,
0.004903,
0.003346,
0.001747,
0.000207,
-0.00119
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.040647,
-0.032295,
-0.011004,
-0.004063,
-0.002461,
-0.002721,
-0.003701,
-0.005018,
0.014481,
0.0212,
0.021998,
0.020107,
0.017015,
0.013457,
0.009843,
0.006428,
0.003373,
0.00077,
-0.001342,
-0.00296
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.015852,
-0.027151,
-0.028517,
-0.026324,
-0.023261,
-0.020301,
-0.017801,
-0.015904,
-0.006469,
0.004848,
0.015144,
0.023171,
0.028531,
0.031267,
0.031649,
0.030072,
0.026984,
0.022838,
0.018061,
0.013031
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.147806,
-0.188551,
-0.169181,
-0.165292,
-0.16902,
-0.177654,
-0.190476,
-0.207257,
-0.15148,
-0.108463,
-0.074267,
-0.047189,
-0.026318,
-0.010935,
-0.000328,
0.006242,
0.009517,
0.010196,
0.008912,
0.006228
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000624,
0.001561,
0.002709,
0.004134,
0.00594,
0.008197,
0.010927,
0.014133,
0.017347,
0.020269,
0.022688,
0.024473,
0.025558,
0.025932,
0.025629,
0.024714,
0.023281,
0.021441,
0.019311,
0.017009
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.066051,
0.113129,
0.118823,
0.109683,
0.10381,
0.131145,
0.159297,
0.18822,
0.137263,
0.093688,
-0.063101,
-0.096544,
-0.11888,
-0.130277,
-0.131871,
-0.125301,
-0.112434,
-0.09516,
-0.075255,
-0.054294
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.016267,
0.038195,
0.066408,
0.099569,
0.136436,
0.175696,
0.216473,
0.258416,
0.208808,
0.163665,
0.122768,
0.086528,
0.055319,
0.02929,
0.00836,
-0.007725,
-0.019348,
-0.026969,
-0.031099,
-0.032274
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.021889,
-0.020716,
-0.016716,
-0.011258,
-0.005072,
0.001402,
0.007848,
0.01403,
0.019777,
0.023958,
0.026207,
0.026572,
0.025304,
0.022745,
0.01926,
0.0152,
0.010887,
0.006592,
0.002538,
-0.001111
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.003201,
0.004396,
0.005923,
0.007308,
0.008402,
0.009196,
0.009732,
0.010065,
0.01026,
0.009968,
0.00912,
0.007788,
0.006101,
0.004204,
0.002236,
0.000319,
-0.00145,
-0.002995,
-0.004269,
-0.005244
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001356,
-0.000946,
-0.000232,
0.000531,
0.001253,
0.001908,
0.002497,
0.003028,
0.003513,
0.003764,
0.00373,
0.003437,
0.00294,
0.002304,
0.001596,
0.000874,
0.000186,
-0.00043,
-0.000948,
-0.001351
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
4.6e-05,
0.000237,
0.000672,
0.001417,
0.002464,
0.003744,
0.005181,
0.006708,
0.0082,
0.009486,
0.010422,
0.010909,
0.010897,
0.010382,
0.009403,
0.008032,
0.006364,
0.004508,
0.002574
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.004555,
-0.011945,
-0.019238,
-0.02557,
-0.03082,
-0.035099,
-0.038592,
-0.041501,
-0.04167,
-0.038761,
-0.033199,
-0.025679,
-0.016954,
-0.007732,
0.001372,
0.009859,
0.017353,
0.023599,
0.028451
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.027943,
0.047025,
0.053841,
0.057976,
0.063051,
0.069456,
0.076967,
0.085616,
0.077139,
0.061792,
0.043888,
0.026102,
0.009858,
-0.004085,
-0.015355,
-0.023826,
-0.02955,
-0.032703,
-0.033556,
-0.032446
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00014,
0.000375,
0.000644,
0.000934,
0.001249,
0.001596,
0.001981,
0.002409,
0.002795,
0.003104,
0.003323,
0.003454,
0.003503,
0.003483,
0.003406,
0.003287,
0.003139,
0.002976,
0.002808,
0.002646
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.01956,
0.032917,
0.037689,
0.040583,
0.044136,
0.048619,
0.053877,
0.059931,
0.053997,
0.043254,
0.030722,
0.018271,
0.006901,
-0.002859,
-0.010748,
-0.016678,
-0.020685,
-0.022892,
-0.023489,
-0.022712
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000251,
-0.000346,
-0.000582,
-0.000974,
-0.001507,
-0.002129,
-0.002792,
-0.003477,
-0.00391,
-0.004096,
-0.004036,
-0.003765,
-0.003329,
-0.002777,
-0.002157,
-0.001513,
-0.000883,
-0.000301,
0.000208,
0.000628
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3.3e-05,
0.000173,
0.000505,
0.001099,
0.001978,
0.00312,
0.004488,
0.006045,
0.007705,
0.009334,
0.010806,
0.012009,
0.01286,
0.013307,
0.013328,
0.012934,
0.01216,
0.011063,
0.009712
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.037175,
-0.047443,
-0.042794,
-0.042113,
-0.043398,
-0.045898,
-0.049377,
-0.053769,
-0.039722,
-0.028585,
-0.019401,
-0.011833,
-0.005762,
-0.001106,
0.002233,
0.004392,
0.005535,
0.005835,
0.00547,
0.004607
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.028453,
-0.022607,
-0.007703,
-0.002844,
-0.001723,
-0.001905,
-0.00259,
-0.003513,
0.010137,
0.01484,
0.015398,
0.014075,
0.01191,
0.00942,
0.00689,
0.0045,
0.002361,
0.000539,
-0.000939,
-0.002072
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000892,
0.001229,
0.002071,
0.003464,
0.005358,
0.007569,
0.009928,
0.012364,
0.013901,
0.014563,
0.014349,
0.013385,
0.011836,
0.009875,
0.00767,
0.005379,
0.003141,
0.001072,
-0.000739,
-0.002231
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-5.6e-05,
-0.000119,
-0.000218,
-0.000379,
-0.000617,
-0.000931,
-0.001313,
-0.00175,
-0.002171,
-0.002527,
-0.002779,
-0.002907,
-0.002907,
-0.002784,
-0.002556,
-0.002244,
-0.001871,
-0.001464,
-0.001048,
-0.000644
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
3e-06,
7e-06,
1.6e-05,
2.9e-05,
4.5e-05,
6.3e-05,
8.5e-05,
0.000107,
0.000128,
0.000147,
0.000161,
0.00017,
0.000175,
0.000174,
0.000169,
0.000161,
0.000149,
0.000131
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000818,
0.001126,
0.001892,
0.003159,
0.004876,
0.006879,
0.009014,
0.011218,
0.012598,
0.013177,
0.012962,
0.01207,
0.010652,
0.008865,
0.006863,
0.004786,
0.002762,
0.000894,
-0.000738,
-0.00208
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.044788,
0.057115,
0.051477,
0.050475,
0.051658,
0.054177,
0.057858,
0.062692,
0.045286,
0.031419,
0.02014,
0.011127,
0.004204,
-0.000818,
-0.004166,
-0.006096,
-0.006867,
-0.006726,
-0.005895,
-0.004572
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003963,
-0.006788,
-0.007129,
-0.006581,
-0.005815,
-0.005075,
-0.00445,
-0.003976,
-0.001617,
0.001212,
0.003786,
0.005793,
0.007133,
0.007817,
0.007912,
0.007518,
0.006746,
0.00571,
0.004515,
0.003258
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
8e-06,
2.3e-05,
4.9e-05,
8.7e-05,
0.000135,
0.000192,
0.000257,
0.000325,
0.000389,
0.000445,
0.000487,
0.000516,
0.000529,
0.000527,
0.000513,
0.000487,
0.000451,
0.000396
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.015852,
-0.027151,
-0.028517,
-0.026324,
-0.023261,
-0.020301,
-0.017801,
-0.015904,
-0.006469,
0.004848,
0.015144,
0.023171,
0.028531,
0.031267,
0.031649,
0.030072,
0.026984,
0.022838,
0.018061,
0.013031
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
7.4e-05,
0.000206,
0.000432,
0.000669,
0.000888,
0.001082,
0.00125,
0.001398,
0.00153,
0.001583,
0.001541,
0.001414,
0.00122,
0.000982,
0.00072,
0.000456,
0.000205,
-2.1e-05,
-0.000212,
-0.000363
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.003963,
0.006788,
0.007129,
0.006581,
0.005815,
0.005075,
0.00445,
0.003976,
0.001617,
-0.001212,
-0.003786,
-0.005793,
-0.007133,
-0.007817,
-0.007912,
-0.007518,
-0.006746,
-0.00571,
-0.004515,
-0.003258
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.041589,
0.039361,
0.031761,
0.021391,
0.009636,
-0.002664,
-0.014912,
-0.026656,
-0.037575,
-0.045521,
-0.049793,
-0.050486,
-0.048078,
-0.043216,
-0.036594,
-0.028881,
-0.020684,
-0.012525,
-0.004822,
0.002111
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.014403,
-0.019784,
-0.026654,
-0.032884,
-0.037808,
-0.041384,
-0.043792,
-0.045293,
-0.04617,
-0.044856,
-0.04104,
-0.035046,
-0.027455,
-0.018919,
-0.010063,
-0.001434,
0.006525,
0.013479,
0.01921,
0.023596
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.011121,
0.007753,
0.001906,
-0.004356,
-0.010276,
-0.01565,
-0.020475,
-0.024827,
-0.028809,
-0.030861,
-0.030586,
-0.028181,
-0.024104,
-0.018895,
-0.013089,
-0.007165,
-0.001523,
0.003529,
0.007771,
0.011074
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.00133,
-0.003707,
-0.007776,
-0.012049,
-0.01599,
-0.01947,
-0.022505,
-0.025162,
-0.027534,
-0.028489,
-0.027746,
-0.025458,
-0.021966,
-0.017671,
-0.012966,
-0.008205,
-0.003682,
0.000376,
0.00381,
0.006526
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.028809,
0.007168,
-0.023476,
-0.031917,
-0.029179,
-0.020859,
-0.009913,
0.001962,
-0.012162,
-0.012712,
-0.00692,
0.00115,
0.00921,
0.016,
0.020907,
0.023718,
0.02447,
0.023377,
0.020746,
0.016931
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.154149,
-0.212294,
-0.224698,
-0.269085,
-0.338732,
-0.431283,
-0.545768,
-0.681239,
-0.70303,
-0.703385,
-0.684656,
-0.650979,
-0.606789,
-0.556125,
-0.502376,
-0.448216,
-0.395625,
-0.345989,
-0.300169,
-0.258653
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.024,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0241,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2584,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_my
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_my",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "MY",
"name": "Malaysia"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001657,
0.002415,
0.004434,
0.007926,
0.012845,
0.018702,
0.024974,
0.031423,
0.036203,
0.039066,
0.03967,
0.038137,
0.034818,
0.030163,
0.024644,
0.018712,
0.012762,
0.007122,
0.00204,
-0.002313
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00331,
0.003746,
0.002884,
0.003402,
0.005452,
0.008507,
0.012026,
0.015699,
0.017375,
0.018871,
0.019963,
0.020263,
0.019598,
0.017999,
0.01563,
0.012715,
0.009495,
0.006197,
0.003015,
0.000104
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.060705,
-0.04711,
-0.014839,
-0.005622,
-0.004332,
-0.005592,
-0.007736,
-0.010241,
0.019897,
0.02934,
0.029966,
0.026945,
0.02249,
0.017607,
0.012813,
0.0084,
0.004543,
0.001329,
-0.00122,
-0.003124
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.021854,
-0.036653,
-0.03766,
-0.034509,
-0.030784,
-0.027613,
-0.025318,
-0.023965,
-0.011717,
0.002859,
0.015906,
0.025977,
0.032732,
0.036333,
0.03718,
0.035774,
0.032654,
0.028344,
0.023322,
0.018002
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.183955,
-0.234651,
-0.210271,
-0.208414,
-0.218036,
-0.235144,
-0.258242,
-0.286662,
-0.220628,
-0.171521,
-0.132598,
-0.100943,
-0.075258,
-0.054827,
-0.039104,
-0.02755,
-0.019591,
-0.014644,
-0.012147,
-0.011566
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000808,
0.002042,
0.00358,
0.005577,
0.008247,
0.011729,
0.016063,
0.021243,
0.026654,
0.031876,
0.036545,
0.040377,
0.04318,
0.044852,
0.045379,
0.044816,
0.043275,
0.040908,
0.03789,
0.034409
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.091057,
0.152719,
0.156916,
0.143788,
0.128267,
0.132647,
0.161121,
0.190375,
0.138835,
0.094761,
-0.066274,
-0.108237,
-0.136381,
-0.151388,
-0.154915,
-0.149059,
-0.13606,
-0.118101,
-0.097174,
-0.07501
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.017024,
0.039598,
0.069776,
0.106599,
0.148927,
0.19488,
0.242866,
0.29218,
0.249188,
0.209121,
0.17082,
0.134491,
0.100769,
0.070299,
0.043585,
0.020938,
0.002474,
-0.011864,
-0.022279,
-0.029089
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.029794,
-0.028527,
-0.023588,
-0.016893,
-0.009332,
-0.001392,
0.006601,
0.014413,
0.02188,
0.027427,
0.030612,
0.031539,
0.030543,
0.028042,
0.02447,
0.020229,
0.015679,
0.011119,
0.006788,
0.002861
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.001951,
0.00368,
0.0059,
0.007946,
0.00964,
0.010988,
0.012053,
0.012914,
0.013652,
0.01375,
0.013117,
0.01185,
0.010115,
0.00809,
0.005939,
0.003806,
0.001804,
1.9e-05,
-0.001494,
-0.002702
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000823,
-0.000253,
0.000705,
0.001702,
0.002633,
0.003479,
0.004253,
0.004973,
0.005662,
0.006044,
0.006061,
0.00575,
0.005184,
0.004445,
0.003612,
0.002753,
0.001924,
0.001168,
0.000516,
-1.6e-05
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
7.6e-05,
0.000395,
0.001143,
0.00247,
0.0044,
0.006848,
0.009697,
0.012839,
0.016046,
0.018986,
0.021356,
0.022931,
0.023588,
0.023298,
0.022112,
0.020147,
0.01756,
0.014531,
0.011247
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.00673,
-0.017533,
-0.028045,
-0.037133,
-0.044723,
-0.05104,
-0.056381,
-0.061042,
-0.061667,
-0.057784,
-0.050045,
-0.039469,
-0.027125,
-0.013999,
-0.000939,
0.011373,
0.022423,
0.031862,
0.039483
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.037422,
0.062505,
0.070956,
0.077531,
0.087226,
0.099908,
0.114557,
0.130878,
0.124341,
0.108679,
0.088605,
0.067091,
0.045859,
0.026028,
0.008358,
-0.006661,
-0.018769,
-0.0279,
-0.034148,
-0.037732
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000187,
0.0005,
0.000854,
0.001242,
0.001678,
0.002178,
0.002751,
0.003405,
0.004027,
0.00457,
0.005013,
0.005348,
0.005578,
0.005708,
0.00575,
0.005716,
0.005623,
0.005483,
0.005312,
0.005124
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.026195,
0.043753,
0.049669,
0.054272,
0.061058,
0.069936,
0.08019,
0.091615,
0.087039,
0.076075,
0.062024,
0.046963,
0.032101,
0.01822,
0.00585,
-0.004663,
-0.013138,
-0.01953,
-0.023904,
-0.026413
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000269,
-0.000375,
-0.000636,
-0.001059,
-0.001618,
-0.002247,
-0.002893,
-0.003545,
-0.003916,
-0.004014,
-0.003843,
-0.003462,
-0.002933,
-0.002316,
-0.001663,
-0.001019,
-0.000417,
0.000114,
0.000558,
0.000904
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
6.2e-05,
0.000329,
0.000979,
0.00218,
0.004011,
0.006463,
0.009492,
0.013041,
0.016947,
0.020935,
0.024717,
0.028036,
0.030696,
0.032568,
0.03359,
0.033762,
0.033135,
0.031799,
0.029872
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.055485,
-0.070682,
-0.063168,
-0.062023,
-0.063772,
-0.06725,
-0.072197,
-0.078588,
-0.056275,
-0.039021,
-0.025267,
-0.014458,
-0.006316,
-0.000585,
0.003031,
0.004864,
0.00526,
0.004555,
0.003056,
0.001034
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.042493,
-0.032977,
-0.010387,
-0.003935,
-0.003033,
-0.003914,
-0.005415,
-0.007169,
0.013928,
0.020538,
0.020976,
0.018862,
0.015743,
0.012325,
0.008969,
0.00588,
0.00318,
0.00093,
-0.000854,
-0.002187
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000994,
0.00145,
0.002666,
0.00477,
0.007737,
0.011271,
0.015058,
0.018952,
0.021845,
0.023586,
0.023964,
0.023052,
0.021059,
0.018257,
0.01493,
0.01135,
0.007757,
0.004349,
0.001276,
-0.001358
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000124,
-0.000274,
-0.000538,
-0.000998,
-0.001712,
-0.002687,
-0.003888,
-0.005273,
-0.00667,
-0.007932,
-0.008924,
-0.009554,
-0.009776,
-0.009595,
-0.009044,
-0.008187,
-0.007097,
-0.005857,
-0.004546,
-0.003236
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
7e-06,
2.2e-05,
4.9e-05,
9e-05,
0.000145,
0.000211,
0.000289,
0.000374,
0.000458,
0.000535,
0.000599,
0.000646,
0.000676,
0.000686,
0.00068,
0.000657,
0.000622,
0.000575
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000948,
0.001381,
0.002536,
0.004534,
0.007347,
0.010697,
0.014285,
0.017974,
0.020708,
0.022346,
0.022691,
0.021814,
0.019916,
0.017253,
0.014096,
0.010703,
0.0073,
0.004074,
0.001167,
-0.001323
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.05565,
0.071011,
0.064035,
0.063964,
0.067414,
0.0731,
0.080544,
0.089566,
0.069764,
0.054641,
0.042291,
0.031989,
0.023458,
0.016555,
0.011158,
0.007126,
0.0043,
0.00251,
0.001584,
0.001358
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.005463,
-0.009163,
-0.009415,
-0.008627,
-0.007696,
-0.006903,
-0.006329,
-0.005991,
-0.002929,
0.000715,
0.003976,
0.006494,
0.008183,
0.009083,
0.009295,
0.008944,
0.008164,
0.007086,
0.00583,
0.004501
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
4e-06,
2e-05,
6e-05,
0.000132,
0.000243,
0.000391,
0.000572,
0.000782,
0.001011,
0.001238,
0.001446,
0.001618,
0.001747,
0.001826,
0.001855,
0.001837,
0.001777,
0.00168,
0.001555
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.021854,
-0.036653,
-0.03766,
-0.034509,
-0.030784,
-0.027613,
-0.025318,
-0.023965,
-0.011717,
0.002859,
0.015906,
0.025977,
0.032732,
0.036333,
0.03718,
0.035774,
0.032654,
0.028344,
0.023322,
0.018002
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000288,
0.000469,
0.000774,
0.001087,
0.001374,
0.00163,
0.001859,
0.002069,
0.002267,
0.002364,
0.002339,
0.002206,
0.001989,
0.001715,
0.001412,
0.001102,
0.000803,
0.000531,
0.000295,
0.0001
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.005463,
0.009163,
0.009415,
0.008627,
0.007696,
0.006903,
0.006329,
0.005991,
0.002929,
-0.000715,
-0.003976,
-0.006494,
-0.008183,
-0.009083,
-0.009295,
-0.008944,
-0.008164,
-0.007086,
-0.00583,
-0.004501
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.056609,
0.054202,
0.044818,
0.032096,
0.01773,
0.002645,
-0.012542,
-0.027385,
-0.041573,
-0.052111,
-0.058164,
-0.059925,
-0.058031,
-0.05328,
-0.046493,
-0.038436,
-0.02979,
-0.021127,
-0.012897,
-0.005437
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.008778,
-0.016559,
-0.02655,
-0.035756,
-0.043379,
-0.049445,
-0.054239,
-0.058115,
-0.061433,
-0.061873,
-0.059025,
-0.053325,
-0.045518,
-0.036403,
-0.026726,
-0.017126,
-0.008118,
-8.4e-05,
0.006723,
0.012161
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00675,
0.002076,
-0.005777,
-0.013959,
-0.02159,
-0.028531,
-0.034874,
-0.04078,
-0.046425,
-0.049562,
-0.049703,
-0.04715,
-0.042507,
-0.036448,
-0.029616,
-0.022571,
-0.015776,
-0.009579,
-0.004227,
0.000134
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.005179,
-0.008447,
-0.013933,
-0.019569,
-0.02473,
-0.029331,
-0.033456,
-0.037235,
-0.040812,
-0.042552,
-0.042107,
-0.039705,
-0.035795,
-0.030873,
-0.025412,
-0.019827,
-0.014456,
-0.009554,
-0.005302,
-0.001805
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.074104,
0.071834,
0.042227,
0.040625,
0.053728,
0.075328,
0.102172,
0.132442,
0.109141,
0.100428,
0.097471,
0.095927,
0.093805,
0.090332,
0.085372,
0.079092,
0.071774,
0.063748,
0.055337,
0.046841
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.190298,
-0.258394,
-0.265788,
-0.312207,
-0.387748,
-0.488773,
-0.613535,
-0.760644,
-0.772178,
-0.766443,
-0.742987,
-0.704733,
-0.655729,
-0.600017,
-0.541153,
-0.482009,
-0.424732,
-0.370829,
-0.321228,
-0.276447
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0397,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.05,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2922,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_cl
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_cl",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "CL",
"name": "Chile"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001782,
0.002547,
0.0046,
0.008248,
0.013529,
0.019976,
0.027032,
0.03438,
0.039951,
0.043504,
0.044742,
0.043772,
0.040867,
0.036379,
0.030706,
0.02427,
0.017497,
0.010783,
0.004473,
-0.001152
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002228,
0.00395,
0.00455,
0.005075,
0.006435,
0.008819,
0.011989,
0.01564,
0.018014,
0.019387,
0.020025,
0.020056,
0.019474,
0.018243,
0.016363,
0.013905,
0.011002,
0.007831,
0.004585,
0.001452
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.017374,
-0.026229,
-0.021782,
-0.015521,
-0.011149,
-0.00915,
-0.009015,
-0.010084,
-0.001807,
0.006932,
0.013137,
0.016402,
0.017237,
0.016352,
0.014389,
0.011855,
0.009123,
0.006451,
0.004011,
0.001897
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012509,
-0.030218,
-0.042244,
-0.047276,
-0.0475,
-0.045476,
-0.043121,
-0.041563,
-0.034096,
-0.020997,
-0.005133,
0.01055,
0.02395,
0.03392,
0.040095,
0.042644,
0.042061,
0.039003,
0.034172,
0.028236
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.089097,
-0.183136,
-0.23469,
-0.266023,
-0.291488,
-0.319042,
-0.352508,
-0.393415,
-0.39072,
-0.362951,
-0.322559,
-0.277631,
-0.23322,
-0.192312,
-0.156514,
-0.126517,
-0.102391,
-0.083819,
-0.07025,
-0.061037
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00055,
0.001556,
0.003076,
0.005186,
0.008007,
0.011631,
0.016095,
0.021404,
0.027088,
0.032677,
0.037746,
0.041977,
0.045162,
0.04719,
0.048028,
0.047712,
0.046333,
0.044028,
0.040963,
0.037325
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.052122,
0.12591,
0.176016,
0.196985,
0.197917,
0.189484,
0.179672,
0.173179,
0.142066,
0.087487,
0.052484,
-0.04396,
-0.099791,
-0.141335,
-0.167064,
-0.177684,
-0.175256,
-0.162514,
-0.142384,
-0.117648
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.019785,
0.047203,
0.082827,
0.125446,
0.173874,
0.226342,
0.281347,
0.338087,
0.280982,
0.229371,
0.182277,
0.139796,
0.102165,
0.069481,
0.041692,
0.018637,
9.5e-05,
-0.014194,
-0.024534,
-0.031254
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.038739,
-0.041437,
-0.040284,
-0.035645,
-0.028417,
-0.019486,
-0.009561,
0.000841,
0.011367,
0.020886,
0.028386,
0.0333,
0.03551,
0.035243,
0.032925,
0.029073,
0.024212,
0.018831,
0.013351,
0.00811
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003775,
-0.002059,
0.000221,
0.002797,
0.005348,
0.007674,
0.009706,
0.011474,
0.013063,
0.014219,
0.014697,
0.01439,
0.013333,
0.011659,
0.009553,
0.007213,
0.004825,
0.002545,
0.000495,
-0.001242
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003196,
-0.002835,
-0.002007,
-0.000858,
0.000435,
0.001747,
0.003018,
0.004238,
0.005424,
0.006426,
0.007102,
0.00738,
0.007265,
0.006812,
0.006106,
0.005243,
0.004311,
0.00339,
0.00254,
0.001806
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
7.6e-05,
0.000406,
0.001207,
0.002672,
0.004858,
0.00769,
0.011039,
0.014769,
0.018615,
0.022214,
0.025227,
0.02739,
0.028525,
0.028547,
0.027462,
0.025357,
0.022385,
0.018747,
0.014671
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.002334,
-0.007703,
-0.014835,
-0.022414,
-0.029608,
-0.036054,
-0.041708,
-0.046702,
-0.049897,
-0.050349,
-0.047691,
-0.042088,
-0.034059,
-0.024311,
-0.013605,
-0.002664,
0.007882,
0.017528,
0.025903
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.023754,
0.05323,
0.078333,
0.097744,
0.114581,
0.130869,
0.147824,
0.166474,
0.169216,
0.157605,
0.135027,
0.1066,
0.07641,
0.047243,
0.020822,
-0.001887,
-0.020433,
-0.034703,
-0.044834,
-0.051101
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000119,
0.000385,
0.000777,
0.001265,
0.001838,
0.002493,
0.003232,
0.004064,
0.00491,
0.005698,
0.006373,
0.006906,
0.007288,
0.007525,
0.007629,
0.007619,
0.007517,
0.007344,
0.007119,
0.006864
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.016628,
0.037261,
0.054833,
0.068421,
0.080207,
0.091609,
0.103477,
0.116532,
0.118451,
0.110323,
0.094519,
0.07462,
0.053487,
0.03307,
0.014576,
-0.001321,
-0.014303,
-0.024292,
-0.031384,
-0.035771
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000312,
-0.00042,
-0.000682,
-0.001113,
-0.001695,
-0.002371,
-0.003094,
-0.003844,
-0.004281,
-0.004427,
-0.004317,
-0.004016,
-0.003575,
-0.003033,
-0.002421,
-0.00177,
-0.001112,
-0.000481,
9.4e-05,
0.000588
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3.8e-05,
0.00021,
0.000639,
0.001452,
0.002713,
0.004424,
0.00655,
0.009043,
0.011781,
0.014574,
0.017223,
0.019548,
0.021401,
0.02267,
0.023292,
0.023249,
0.022567,
0.021306,
0.01956
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.013525,
-0.027655,
-0.035404,
-0.040073,
-0.043784,
-0.047733,
-0.052532,
-0.058446,
-0.057669,
-0.053067,
-0.046621,
-0.039627,
-0.03287,
-0.02679,
-0.021599,
-0.017368,
-0.014073,
-0.01164,
-0.00996,
-0.00892
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012162,
-0.01836,
-0.015248,
-0.010865,
-0.007805,
-0.006405,
-0.00631,
-0.007059,
-0.001265,
0.004852,
0.009196,
0.011481,
0.012066,
0.011446,
0.010073,
0.008299,
0.006386,
0.004516,
0.002808,
0.001328
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001069,
0.001529,
0.002766,
0.004964,
0.008148,
0.012037,
0.016295,
0.02073,
0.024098,
0.026254,
0.027013,
0.026439,
0.024695,
0.021992,
0.018571,
0.014689,
0.010601,
0.006548,
0.002737,
-0.000661
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000187,
-0.000408,
-0.000789,
-0.001458,
-0.002514,
-0.003983,
-0.005825,
-0.007979,
-0.010179,
-0.012202,
-0.01385,
-0.014983,
-0.015529,
-0.015466,
-0.014824,
-0.013666,
-0.012087,
-0.010197,
-0.008118,
-0.005967
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
6e-06,
1.6e-05,
3.5e-05,
6.4e-05,
0.000101,
0.000146,
0.000198,
0.000253,
0.000306,
0.000352,
0.00039,
0.000415,
0.000428,
0.000429,
0.000419,
0.000399,
0.000372,
0.00033
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001078,
0.001541,
0.002783,
0.00499,
0.008185,
0.012085,
0.016355,
0.0208,
0.02417,
0.02632,
0.027069,
0.026482,
0.024725,
0.022009,
0.018577,
0.014684,
0.010586,
0.006524,
0.002706,
-0.000697
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.02705,
0.055361,
0.07105,
0.080791,
0.088857,
0.097586,
0.108097,
0.120851,
0.12019,
0.111732,
0.099295,
0.0854,
0.071621,
0.058882,
0.047677,
0.038224,
0.030556,
0.024594,
0.020189,
0.017162
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003127,
-0.007555,
-0.010561,
-0.011819,
-0.011875,
-0.011369,
-0.01078,
-0.010391,
-0.008524,
-0.005249,
-0.001283,
0.002638,
0.005987,
0.00848,
0.010024,
0.010661,
0.010515,
0.009751,
0.008543,
0.007059
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3e-06,
1.7e-05,
4.9e-05,
0.000107,
0.000194,
0.000307,
0.000443,
0.000599,
0.000765,
0.000926,
0.001068,
0.00118,
0.001258,
0.001297,
0.0013,
0.00127,
0.00121,
0.001127,
0.000999
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012509,
-0.030218,
-0.042244,
-0.047276,
-0.0475,
-0.045476,
-0.043121,
-0.041563,
-0.034096,
-0.020997,
-0.005133,
0.01055,
0.02395,
0.03392,
0.040095,
0.042644,
0.042061,
0.039003,
0.034172,
0.028236
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0001,
0.000204,
0.000457,
0.000813,
0.001213,
0.001616,
0.002004,
0.002374,
0.002731,
0.003026,
0.003213,
0.003267,
0.00319,
0.002999,
0.002725,
0.002398,
0.002047,
0.0017,
0.001375,
0.00109
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.003127,
0.007555,
0.010561,
0.011819,
0.011875,
0.011369,
0.01078,
0.010391,
0.008524,
0.005249,
0.001283,
-0.002638,
-0.005987,
-0.00848,
-0.010024,
-0.010661,
-0.010515,
-0.009751,
-0.008543,
-0.007059
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.073603,
0.07873,
0.07654,
0.067726,
0.053992,
0.037023,
0.018166,
-0.001598,
-0.021597,
-0.039684,
-0.053934,
-0.063269,
-0.06747,
-0.066962,
-0.062558,
-0.055238,
-0.046002,
-0.035779,
-0.025368,
-0.015408
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.016988,
0.009266,
-0.000994,
-0.012585,
-0.024068,
-0.034534,
-0.043678,
-0.051634,
-0.058783,
-0.063983,
-0.066134,
-0.064754,
-0.059998,
-0.052465,
-0.042988,
-0.032459,
-0.021713,
-0.011454,
-0.002229,
0.005587
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.026204,
0.023251,
0.016461,
0.007034,
-0.003566,
-0.014323,
-0.02475,
-0.034754,
-0.044479,
-0.052695,
-0.058234,
-0.060517,
-0.059571,
-0.055857,
-0.050073,
-0.042992,
-0.035354,
-0.027798,
-0.02083,
-0.014811
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001796,
-0.003665,
-0.008229,
-0.014635,
-0.02183,
-0.02909,
-0.036073,
-0.042723,
-0.049155,
-0.054475,
-0.057832,
-0.058804,
-0.057411,
-0.053991,
-0.049051,
-0.043156,
-0.036848,
-0.030592,
-0.024758,
-0.019613
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.015495,
0.025213,
0.069358,
0.100826,
0.130508,
0.163727,
0.202606,
0.247706,
0.285213,
0.295508,
0.288716,
0.271524,
0.248441,
0.222551,
0.195976,
0.170147,
0.14597,
0.123973,
0.1044,
0.087329
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.09544,
-0.206879,
-0.290206,
-0.369816,
-0.4612,
-0.572672,
-0.7078,
-0.867397,
-0.942271,
-0.957873,
-0.932948,
-0.881421,
-0.813691,
-0.737502,
-0.658563,
-0.580976,
-0.507533,
-0.440004,
-0.379331,
-0.325917
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0447,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0856,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.3381,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_co
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_co",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "CO",
"name": "Colombia"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001919,
0.002755,
0.005066,
0.009294,
0.015554,
0.023359,
0.032036,
0.041108,
0.048225,
0.053054,
0.055167,
0.054537,
0.051357,
0.045972,
0.038842,
0.030507,
0.021542,
0.012511,
0.003918,
-0.003816
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002195,
0.003972,
0.004792,
0.005573,
0.007245,
0.010073,
0.013851,
0.018244,
0.02149,
0.023681,
0.024961,
0.025381,
0.024893,
0.023437,
0.02102,
0.017747,
0.013813,
0.009474,
0.005008,
0.000685
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.016519,
-0.02615,
-0.023565,
-0.018022,
-0.013289,
-0.010394,
-0.009262,
-0.00946,
-0.00165,
0.007096,
0.013843,
0.017861,
0.019391,
0.018999,
0.017283,
0.014764,
0.011853,
0.008859,
0.005999,
0.003415
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012389,
-0.030382,
-0.043212,
-0.048731,
-0.048621,
-0.045411,
-0.041253,
-0.037564,
-0.028432,
-0.01397,
0.00307,
0.019688,
0.033661,
0.043752,
0.049569,
0.051322,
0.049589,
0.045132,
0.038762,
0.03125
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.12514,
-0.258872,
-0.338636,
-0.391522,
-0.435925,
-0.482328,
-0.535772,
-0.59845,
-0.603808,
-0.57377,
-0.522773,
-0.460798,
-0.394842,
-0.329744,
-0.268737,
-0.213847,
-0.166191,
-0.126209,
-0.093838,
-0.06871
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000575,
0.001641,
0.003279,
0.005584,
0.008703,
0.01275,
0.017775,
0.023783,
0.030279,
0.036753,
0.042727,
0.047816,
0.051742,
0.054329,
0.055494,
0.055236,
0.053637,
0.050839,
0.047038,
0.042463
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.044246,
0.108506,
0.154329,
0.17404,
0.173646,
0.162184,
0.147331,
0.157021,
0.114511,
0.078159,
0.047798,
-0.070315,
-0.120218,
-0.156256,
-0.177032,
-0.183293,
-0.177105,
-0.161186,
-0.138437,
-0.111609
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.01914,
0.046303,
0.081361,
0.123191,
0.170725,
0.222395,
0.276766,
0.332912,
0.27578,
0.224667,
0.178514,
0.137123,
0.10045,
0.068407,
0.040847,
0.01761,
-0.001467,
-0.016547,
-0.027819,
-0.035501
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.038445,
-0.040451,
-0.038399,
-0.032614,
-0.024062,
-0.013776,
-0.002631,
0.008722,
0.019832,
0.029585,
0.036973,
0.041434,
0.04288,
0.041584,
0.038045,
0.032858,
0.026631,
0.019926,
0.01322,
0.006895
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000792,
0.002576,
0.004867,
0.007431,
0.009943,
0.012171,
0.014016,
0.015487,
0.016662,
0.017318,
0.017234,
0.016316,
0.014614,
0.012283,
0.009533,
0.006584,
0.003645,
0.000889,
-0.001552,
-0.003588
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00219,
-0.001856,
-0.001043,
0.000116,
0.001433,
0.002763,
0.004025,
0.005193,
0.006273,
0.007129,
0.007625,
0.007694,
0.007346,
0.006646,
0.005691,
0.004585,
0.00343,
0.002313,
0.001301,
0.000442
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
7e-05,
0.000387,
0.00119,
0.002708,
0.005051,
0.008191,
0.01202,
0.016389,
0.021023,
0.025537,
0.029535,
0.03267,
0.034676,
0.035384,
0.034733,
0.032769,
0.029628,
0.025521,
0.020708
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.002265,
-0.007622,
-0.014993,
-0.023046,
-0.030783,
-0.037639,
-0.0434,
-0.048082,
-0.050621,
-0.050087,
-0.046081,
-0.038745,
-0.028624,
-0.016499,
-0.003246,
0.010273,
0.023284,
0.035147,
0.045373
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.023956,
0.054128,
0.081346,
0.103432,
0.122905,
0.141594,
0.160638,
0.181021,
0.185411,
0.175055,
0.152762,
0.123347,
0.090913,
0.058436,
0.027917,
0.000641,
-0.022603,
-0.041384,
-0.055564,
-0.065192
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00012,
0.00039,
0.000797,
0.001314,
0.001929,
0.002637,
0.00344,
0.004345,
0.005272,
0.006147,
0.006911,
0.007528,
0.007983,
0.008275,
0.008414,
0.008418,
0.008304,
0.008098,
0.00782,
0.007494
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.016769,
0.03789,
0.056942,
0.072402,
0.086033,
0.099116,
0.112447,
0.126715,
0.129787,
0.122539,
0.106933,
0.086343,
0.063639,
0.040905,
0.019542,
0.000449,
-0.015822,
-0.028969,
-0.038895,
-0.045635
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000324,
-0.000444,
-0.000753,
-0.001292,
-0.002059,
-0.002989,
-0.004011,
-0.005073,
-0.005797,
-0.006183,
-0.006234,
-0.005987,
-0.005481,
-0.004755,
-0.003855,
-0.002837,
-0.001761,
-0.000692,
0.000311,
0.001196
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
5.2e-05,
0.000293,
0.000921,
0.002145,
0.004105,
0.006843,
0.010338,
0.014528,
0.019245,
0.02421,
0.029108,
0.033626,
0.037484,
0.040453,
0.042378,
0.043177,
0.042849,
0.041461,
0.039138
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.013892,
-0.028505,
-0.036848,
-0.041689,
-0.044904,
-0.047741,
-0.051008,
-0.055137,
-0.052774,
-0.046712,
-0.039055,
-0.0312,
-0.023969,
-0.017781,
-0.012794,
-0.009002,
-0.006314,
-0.00459,
-0.003674,
-0.003412
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.011563,
-0.018305,
-0.016495,
-0.012615,
-0.009302,
-0.007276,
-0.006483,
-0.006622,
-0.001155,
0.004968,
0.00969,
0.012503,
0.013574,
0.013299,
0.012098,
0.010335,
0.008297,
0.006201,
0.004199,
0.002391
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001151,
0.001654,
0.003045,
0.005591,
0.009362,
0.014065,
0.019295,
0.024763,
0.029058,
0.031978,
0.033263,
0.032892,
0.030983,
0.027742,
0.023449,
0.018427,
0.013025,
0.007582,
0.002403,
-0.00226
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-7.2e-05,
-0.000157,
-0.000308,
-0.000579,
-0.001018,
-0.001639,
-0.002431,
-0.003365,
-0.004332,
-0.005238,
-0.005998,
-0.006543,
-0.006833,
-0.006849,
-0.006593,
-0.006089,
-0.005375,
-0.0045,
-0.003522,
-0.002498
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
4e-06,
1.3e-05,
2.9e-05,
5.4e-05,
8.7e-05,
0.000127,
0.000174,
0.000226,
0.000277,
0.000323,
0.000362,
0.000391,
0.000409,
0.000416,
0.000413,
0.0004,
0.000379,
0.000352
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001161,
0.001667,
0.003065,
0.005623,
0.00941,
0.014132,
0.019382,
0.024871,
0.029176,
0.032098,
0.033376,
0.032995,
0.031071,
0.027813,
0.023499,
0.018457,
0.013033,
0.007569,
0.00237,
-0.002309
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.037926,
0.07817,
0.102398,
0.118759,
0.13275,
0.147456,
0.164338,
0.184021,
0.186101,
0.177204,
0.161725,
0.142738,
0.12239,
0.102162,
0.083051,
0.0657,
0.050487,
0.037595,
0.027056,
0.018804
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003097,
-0.007595,
-0.010803,
-0.012183,
-0.012155,
-0.011353,
-0.010313,
-0.009391,
-0.007108,
-0.003493,
0.000767,
0.004922,
0.008415,
0.010938,
0.012392,
0.01283,
0.012397,
0.011283,
0.009691,
0.007813
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
3e-06,
1.5e-05,
4.4e-05,
9.8e-05,
0.00018,
0.00029,
0.000425,
0.000582,
0.000752,
0.000922,
0.001077,
0.001207,
0.001303,
0.001364,
0.001387,
0.001376,
0.001333,
0.001264,
0.001173
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012389,
-0.030382,
-0.043212,
-0.048731,
-0.048621,
-0.045411,
-0.041253,
-0.037564,
-0.028432,
-0.01397,
0.00307,
0.019688,
0.033661,
0.043752,
0.049569,
0.051322,
0.049589,
0.045132,
0.038762,
0.03125
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
9.5e-05,
0.000208,
0.000475,
0.000851,
0.001275,
0.0017,
0.002098,
0.002462,
0.002794,
0.003049,
0.003182,
0.00317,
0.003016,
0.002744,
0.002383,
0.001971,
0.00154,
0.001121,
0.000735,
0.0004
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.003097,
0.007595,
0.010803,
0.012183,
0.012155,
0.011353,
0.010313,
0.009391,
0.007108,
0.003493,
-0.000767,
-0.004922,
-0.008415,
-0.010938,
-0.012392,
-0.01283,
-0.012397,
-0.011283,
-0.009691,
-0.007813
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.073046,
0.076856,
0.072959,
0.061967,
0.045717,
0.026175,
0.004999,
-0.016571,
-0.037682,
-0.056212,
-0.070249,
-0.078725,
-0.081471,
-0.079009,
-0.072285,
-0.06243,
-0.0506,
-0.037859,
-0.025118,
-0.013101
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.003562,
-0.011591,
-0.0219,
-0.03344,
-0.044744,
-0.054771,
-0.063073,
-0.069692,
-0.074979,
-0.077933,
-0.077552,
-0.07342,
-0.065764,
-0.055276,
-0.042897,
-0.029629,
-0.016403,
-0.004,
0.006984,
0.016147
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.017957,
0.015219,
0.008551,
-0.000951,
-0.011751,
-0.022659,
-0.033009,
-0.042579,
-0.051441,
-0.058458,
-0.062523,
-0.063092,
-0.06024,
-0.0545,
-0.046662,
-0.037595,
-0.028126,
-0.018966,
-0.010669,
-0.003622
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001703,
-0.003751,
-0.008552,
-0.015321,
-0.022953,
-0.030593,
-0.037763,
-0.04431,
-0.050292,
-0.054881,
-0.057267,
-0.057054,
-0.054297,
-0.049386,
-0.042899,
-0.035477,
-0.027727,
-0.020175,
-0.013234,
-0.007196
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.033044,
0.113832,
0.183765,
0.236524,
0.285859,
0.339399,
0.400579,
0.470726,
0.513714,
0.519757,
0.500292,
0.463757,
0.416671,
0.364094,
0.30988,
0.256882,
0.207111,
0.161887,
0.121953,
0.087655
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.131484,
-0.282615,
-0.394152,
-0.495315,
-0.605637,
-0.735957,
-0.891065,
-1.072432,
-1.155358,
-1.168692,
-1.133162,
-1.064588,
-0.975313,
-0.874934,
-0.770785,
-0.668306,
-0.571333,
-0.482394,
-0.402919,
-0.33359
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0552,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0895,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.3329,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_ng
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_ng",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "NG",
"name": "Nigeria"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001208,
0.001929,
0.003997,
0.007616,
0.012557,
0.018239,
0.02403,
0.0295,
0.033136,
0.03472,
0.033887,
0.030565,
0.024996,
0.017675,
0.009254,
0.000442,
-0.008076,
-0.015712,
-0.02201,
-0.026666
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.002406,
0.002578,
0.002039,
0.002679,
0.004542,
0.007166,
0.01007,
0.012913,
0.014221,
0.015116,
0.015416,
0.014767,
0.012989,
0.010129,
0.006401,
0.002127,
-0.002332,
-0.006621,
-0.010432,
-0.013528
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.022897,
-0.016102,
-0.004904,
-0.001394,
4.2e-05,
0.000956,
0.001639,
0.00211,
0.012651,
0.016027,
0.016446,
0.015369,
0.013372,
0.01078,
0.007855,
0.004825,
0.001882,
-0.000819,
-0.003167,
-0.005088
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.016486,
-0.025095,
-0.022964,
-0.0177,
-0.01185,
-0.006068,
-0.000595,
0.004385,
0.016125,
0.028091,
0.037403,
0.043057,
0.044906,
0.043241,
0.038611,
0.031708,
0.023286,
0.014084,
0.004778,
-0.004055
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.163549,
-0.210212,
-0.198687,
-0.19889,
-0.204786,
-0.214808,
-0.228559,
-0.245865,
-0.193134,
-0.149574,
-0.111666,
-0.078273,
-0.049118,
-0.02416,
-0.003375,
0.013319,
0.02607,
0.035086,
0.040642,
0.043079
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000532,
0.001319,
0.002326,
0.003711,
0.00564,
0.008193,
0.011348,
0.015027,
0.018766,
0.022242,
0.025154,
0.027233,
0.02827,
0.028141,
0.026817,
0.024369,
0.020952,
0.016787,
0.012134,
0.00727
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.041214,
0.062737,
0.05741,
0.04425,
0.057056,
0.07208,
0.087553,
0.103449,
0.075442,
-0.070228,
-0.093508,
-0.107642,
-0.112264,
-0.108103,
-0.096528,
-0.079271,
-0.058214,
-0.035209,
-0.014011,
-0.011489
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020756,
0.052698,
0.093079,
0.139919,
0.191327,
0.245537,
0.301273,
0.357771,
0.279628,
0.210365,
0.149062,
0.095429,
0.049382,
0.01086,
-0.020263,
-0.044215,
-0.061343,
-0.072119,
-0.077128,
-0.077062
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012047,
-0.00797,
-0.001322,
0.006224,
0.013819,
0.020913,
0.027077,
0.031977,
0.035393,
0.036288,
0.034537,
0.030459,
0.02457,
0.017461,
0.009725,
0.001908,
-0.005517,
-0.01217,
-0.017773,
-0.022152
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.011243,
0.011469,
0.011792,
0.011744,
0.011244,
0.01034,
0.009106,
0.007623,
0.005971,
0.003854,
0.001296,
-0.001551,
-0.004493,
-0.007337,
-0.009914,
-0.012088,
-0.013761,
-0.014877,
-0.015419,
-0.015403
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001816,
-0.001216,
-0.000384,
0.000401,
0.001056,
0.00156,
0.001909,
0.002108,
0.002166,
0.001914,
0.001345,
0.000525,
-0.000453,
-0.001495,
-0.00251,
-0.003424,
-0.004178,
-0.004732,
-0.005065,
-0.005174
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
5.5e-05,
0.000294,
0.000862,
0.001864,
0.00332,
0.005174,
0.007319,
0.00963,
0.011931,
0.013983,
0.015535,
0.01637,
0.016339,
0.01538,
0.013517,
0.010857,
0.007569,
0.003864,
-2.7e-05
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.00358,
-0.008772,
-0.013297,
-0.016571,
-0.01847,
-0.018998,
-0.018226,
-0.016276,
-0.011714,
-0.004641,
0.0043,
0.014284,
0.024454,
0.034006,
0.042245,
0.048628,
0.052783,
0.054514,
0.053798
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.028111,
0.043769,
0.047734,
0.051564,
0.058017,
0.066083,
0.074294,
0.08192,
0.07276,
0.05728,
0.038619,
0.018367,
-0.002264,
-0.022068,
-0.039875,
-0.05467,
-0.065692,
-0.072485,
-0.074916,
-0.073149
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000141,
0.000359,
0.000598,
0.000856,
0.001146,
0.001476,
0.001848,
0.002257,
0.002621,
0.002908,
0.003101,
0.003193,
0.003181,
0.003071,
0.002872,
0.002598,
0.00227,
0.001907,
0.001533,
0.001167
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.019677,
0.030639,
0.033414,
0.036095,
0.040612,
0.046258,
0.052006,
0.057344,
0.050932,
0.040096,
0.027034,
0.012857,
-0.001585,
-0.015447,
-0.027912,
-0.038269,
-0.045984,
-0.05074,
-0.052441,
-0.051204
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000189,
-0.000263,
-0.00044,
-0.000692,
-0.000944,
-0.001138,
-0.00125,
-0.001269,
-0.000988,
-0.000473,
0.000195,
0.000954,
0.001758,
0.002563,
0.003327,
0.004004,
0.004551,
0.004931,
0.005119,
0.005101
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
9.9e-05,
0.00054,
0.001614,
0.003561,
0.006493,
0.010379,
0.015089,
0.020448,
0.026162,
0.031798,
0.03686,
0.040873,
0.043449,
0.044332,
0.043415,
0.040741,
0.036488,
0.030933,
0.024427
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.016427,
-0.020906,
-0.018999,
-0.017347,
-0.0151,
-0.012263,
-0.009208,
-0.006228,
0.003948,
0.0128,
0.019886,
0.024876,
0.027727,
0.028625,
0.027884,
0.025867,
0.022928,
0.019389,
0.015523,
0.011556
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.016028,
-0.011272,
-0.003433,
-0.000976,
2.9e-05,
0.00067,
0.001147,
0.001477,
0.008855,
0.011219,
0.011512,
0.010759,
0.00936,
0.007546,
0.005499,
0.003377,
0.001318,
-0.000573,
-0.002217,
-0.003562
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000725,
0.001158,
0.002403,
0.004582,
0.00756,
0.010986,
0.014481,
0.017784,
0.019988,
0.020957,
0.020472,
0.018485,
0.015142,
0.010742,
0.005676,
0.000371,
-0.00476,
-0.009362,
-0.013161,
-0.015974
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-4.5e-05,
-0.000106,
-0.00023,
-0.000458,
-0.000814,
-0.001295,
-0.001872,
-0.00251,
-0.003125,
-0.003646,
-0.004005,
-0.00415,
-0.00405,
-0.0037,
-0.003122,
-0.002358,
-0.001466,
-0.00051,
0.00033,
0.000942
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
2e-06,
6e-06,
1.4e-05,
2.6e-05,
4.4e-05,
6.5e-05,
9.1e-05,
0.00012,
0.00015,
0.000179,
0.000203,
0.000223,
0.000237,
0.000245,
0.000246,
0.000241,
0.000231,
0.000217
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000598,
0.000955,
0.001979,
0.00377,
0.006216,
0.009028,
0.011895,
0.014602,
0.016403,
0.017186,
0.016774,
0.01513,
0.012373,
0.008749,
0.00458,
0.000219,
-0.003998,
-0.007778,
-0.010895,
-0.013199
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.049186,
0.063235,
0.059903,
0.06015,
0.062122,
0.065309,
0.06957,
0.074842,
0.058911,
0.045575,
0.033818,
0.023334,
0.014068,
0.006038,
-0.000731,
-0.006229,
-0.010468,
-0.013482,
-0.015333,
-0.016113
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.004121,
-0.006274,
-0.005741,
-0.004425,
-0.002962,
-0.001517,
-0.000149,
0.001096,
0.004031,
0.007023,
0.009351,
0.010764,
0.011226,
0.01081,
0.009653,
0.007927,
0.005821,
0.003521,
0.001195,
-0.001014
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
7e-06,
2.3e-05,
5.3e-05,
0.0001,
0.000166,
0.000249,
0.000348,
0.000459,
0.000573,
0.000681,
0.000777,
0.000853,
0.000906,
0.000934,
0.000939,
0.000921,
0.000883,
0.000829
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.016486,
-0.025095,
-0.022964,
-0.0177,
-0.01185,
-0.006068,
-0.000595,
0.004385,
0.016125,
0.028091,
0.037403,
0.043057,
0.044906,
0.043241,
0.038611,
0.031708,
0.023286,
0.014084,
0.004778,
-0.004055
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000107,
0.000244,
0.000452,
0.000642,
0.000788,
0.000886,
0.000935,
0.000939,
0.000901,
0.000766,
0.000531,
0.000218,
-0.000141,
-0.000516,
-0.000876,
-0.001198,
-0.001462,
-0.001656,
-0.001773,
-0.001812
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.004121,
0.006274,
0.005741,
0.004425,
0.002962,
0.001517,
0.000149,
-0.001096,
-0.004031,
-0.007023,
-0.009351,
-0.010764,
-0.011226,
-0.01081,
-0.009653,
-0.007927,
-0.005821,
-0.003521,
-0.001195,
0.001014
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.022889,
0.015143,
0.002512,
-0.011826,
-0.026255,
-0.039735,
-0.051446,
-0.060757,
-0.067247,
-0.068947,
-0.06562,
-0.057872,
-0.046683,
-0.033176,
-0.018477,
-0.003625,
0.010482,
0.023122,
0.033768,
0.042088
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.050594,
-0.051612,
-0.053062,
-0.052846,
-0.050598,
-0.046528,
-0.040977,
-0.034304,
-0.026868,
-0.017345,
-0.005831,
0.006981,
0.020219,
0.033018,
0.044614,
0.054395,
0.061923,
0.066946,
0.069384,
0.069312
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014888,
0.009967,
0.003151,
-0.003292,
-0.008661,
-0.012789,
-0.015651,
-0.017282,
-0.017764,
-0.015697,
-0.011031,
-0.004308,
0.003718,
0.012259,
0.020585,
0.028077,
0.034257,
0.038801,
0.041535,
0.042427
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.001931,
-0.004388,
-0.008134,
-0.011558,
-0.014191,
-0.015946,
-0.016833,
-0.0169,
-0.016221,
-0.013783,
-0.009552,
-0.003927,
0.002543,
0.009286,
0.015776,
0.021568,
0.02632,
0.029805,
0.031907,
0.03261
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.059435,
0.056767,
0.039692,
0.037507,
0.042489,
0.051451,
0.062773,
0.075515,
0.057444,
0.046509,
0.037754,
0.029046,
0.019635,
0.009449,
-0.001236,
-0.012005,
-0.022406,
-0.032016,
-0.040498,
-0.047612
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.169893,
-0.233955,
-0.254203,
-0.302683,
-0.374498,
-0.468437,
-0.583852,
-0.719847,
-0.744684,
-0.744496,
-0.722055,
-0.682063,
-0.629589,
-0.56935,
-0.505424,
-0.44114,
-0.379072,
-0.321099,
-0.268439,
-0.221802
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0347,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 10,
"CPI_3yr_pp": 0.0199,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.3578,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_no
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_no",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "NO",
"name": "Norway"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000722,
0.0012,
0.002666,
0.005513,
0.009952,
0.015662,
0.022089,
0.028854,
0.034987,
0.039893,
0.042798,
0.043401,
0.041793,
0.0383,
0.033369,
0.027482,
0.021095,
0.014614,
0.008374,
0.002636
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000726,
0.001426,
0.002135,
0.003207,
0.004993,
0.007528,
0.010619,
0.014064,
0.017268,
0.019973,
0.021845,
0.022688,
0.022458,
0.02123,
0.019159,
0.016448,
0.013314,
0.009966,
0.006595,
0.003362
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.007773,
-0.012613,
-0.012168,
-0.009883,
-0.007446,
-0.005569,
-0.004468,
-0.004102,
-0.000746,
0.003042,
0.006053,
0.0079,
0.008621,
0.008436,
0.007614,
0.006412,
0.005038,
0.003653,
0.002366,
0.001246
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003498,
-0.008968,
-0.013631,
-0.016416,
-0.017226,
-0.016428,
-0.01456,
-0.012136,
-0.007946,
-0.00204,
0.00483,
0.011737,
0.017885,
0.02272,
0.025956,
0.027528,
0.027542,
0.026214,
0.023825,
0.020673
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.047112,
-0.098702,
-0.135108,
-0.164518,
-0.193051,
-0.223752,
-0.257512,
-0.294725,
-0.314002,
-0.319771,
-0.313823,
-0.298026,
-0.274683,
-0.246272,
-0.21512,
-0.183217,
-0.152148,
-0.12308,
-0.096796,
-0.073754
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000136,
0.000403,
0.000896,
0.001736,
0.003059,
0.004964,
0.007489,
0.010632,
0.014264,
0.018194,
0.022159,
0.025893,
0.029162,
0.031791,
0.03367,
0.034751,
0.035039,
0.034584,
0.033466,
0.031788
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.026993,
0.071142,
0.124288,
0.183127,
0.245459,
0.310094,
0.376659,
0.445046,
0.324559,
0.221526,
0.135475,
-0.073359,
-0.111779,
-0.142002,
-0.162223,
-0.172048,
-0.172136,
-0.16384,
-0.148904,
-0.129206
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014136,
0.035716,
0.063662,
0.097309,
0.1361,
0.178775,
0.223932,
0.270686,
0.228243,
0.191209,
0.157647,
0.126776,
0.098476,
0.072905,
0.050266,
0.030711,
0.01429,
0.000955,
-0.009433,
-0.017084
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012858,
-0.013414,
-0.012548,
-0.01024,
-0.006721,
-0.002332,
0.002561,
0.007626,
0.012584,
0.01702,
0.020551,
0.022926,
0.024043,
0.023937,
0.022744,
0.020663,
0.017927,
0.014772,
0.011423,
0.008073
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.004803,
0.00583,
0.006937,
0.008084,
0.009187,
0.010163,
0.010955,
0.011535,
0.011899,
0.011985,
0.01173,
0.011108,
0.010135,
0.008865,
0.007374,
0.005752,
0.004089,
0.002466,
0.000951,
-0.000402
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.001623,
0.00167,
0.00187,
0.002202,
0.002618,
0.003065,
0.003502,
0.0039,
0.004243,
0.004486,
0.004584,
0.004513,
0.004269,
0.003872,
0.003353,
0.002752,
0.00211,
0.001466,
0.000852,
0.000296
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
5.6e-05,
0.000307,
0.000944,
0.002169,
0.004096,
0.00672,
0.009968,
0.013744,
0.017827,
0.021861,
0.025467,
0.028329,
0.030226,
0.031043,
0.030765,
0.029461,
0.027258,
0.024327,
0.020857
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.000832,
-0.002876,
-0.005868,
-0.009366,
-0.012967,
-0.016377,
-0.019421,
-0.022031,
-0.023828,
-0.024459,
-0.02373,
-0.021632,
-0.018301,
-0.013978,
-0.008959,
-0.00355,
0.001955,
0.0073,
0.012277
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.007267,
0.017295,
0.029405,
0.04298,
0.058284,
0.074437,
0.090444,
0.10619,
0.116544,
0.120284,
0.116167,
0.105214,
0.089258,
0.070292,
0.050123,
0.030234,
0.011734,
-0.004613,
-0.018352,
-0.02928
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.6e-05,
0.000123,
0.00027,
0.000485,
0.000776,
0.001148,
0.001601,
0.002132,
0.002714,
0.003316,
0.003896,
0.004423,
0.004869,
0.00522,
0.005471,
0.005622,
0.005681,
0.005658,
0.005566,
0.00542
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.005087,
0.012106,
0.020584,
0.030086,
0.040799,
0.052106,
0.063311,
0.074333,
0.081581,
0.084199,
0.081317,
0.07365,
0.062481,
0.049204,
0.035086,
0.021164,
0.008214,
-0.003229,
-0.012847,
-0.020496
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000153,
-7.4e-05,
0.0003,
0.001173,
0.002679,
0.004732,
0.0071,
0.0096,
0.012298,
0.014842,
0.01676,
0.017763,
0.017791,
0.016939,
0.015387,
0.013343,
0.011007,
0.008556,
0.006133,
0.003844
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-1e-05,
-5.7e-05,
-0.000178,
-0.000417,
-0.000806,
-0.001355,
-0.002063,
-0.002922,
-0.003899,
-0.004931,
-0.005947,
-0.006876,
-0.007663,
-0.008267,
-0.008662,
-0.008843,
-0.008813,
-0.008588,
-0.008194
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.007132,
-0.014373,
-0.017912,
-0.018161,
-0.015515,
-0.010865,
-0.005344,
0.000234,
0.008748,
0.018156,
0.026351,
0.032034,
0.034724,
0.034518,
0.031849,
0.027303,
0.021495,
0.014995,
0.008293,
0.001786
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.005441,
-0.008829,
-0.008517,
-0.006918,
-0.005212,
-0.003898,
-0.003127,
-0.002872,
-0.000522,
0.00213,
0.004237,
0.00553,
0.006035,
0.005905,
0.00533,
0.004488,
0.003527,
0.002557,
0.001656,
0.000872
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000433,
0.000721,
0.001604,
0.00332,
0.005997,
0.00944,
0.013316,
0.017397,
0.021098,
0.024061,
0.025818,
0.026187,
0.02522,
0.023117,
0.020145,
0.016595,
0.012743,
0.008834,
0.00507,
0.001607
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000112,
-0.00027,
-0.000616,
-0.001316,
-0.00253,
-0.004325,
-0.006668,
-0.009473,
-0.012528,
-0.015579,
-0.018318,
-0.020466,
-0.021827,
-0.022307,
-0.021902,
-0.020686,
-0.018784,
-0.016353,
-0.013563,
-0.010581
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
2e-06,
1.1e-05,
3.5e-05,
8.2e-05,
0.000157,
0.000261,
0.000394,
0.000553,
0.000732,
0.000918,
0.001097,
0.001256,
0.001384,
0.001477,
0.00153,
0.001544,
0.00152,
0.001464,
0.00138
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000413,
0.000686,
0.001525,
0.003154,
0.005693,
0.008959,
0.012635,
0.016505,
0.020012,
0.022819,
0.02448,
0.024826,
0.023905,
0.021907,
0.019087,
0.015719,
0.012066,
0.008359,
0.00479,
0.001508
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.014263,
0.029788,
0.040827,
0.049847,
0.058682,
0.068222,
0.078709,
0.090249,
0.096281,
0.098128,
0.096325,
0.091452,
0.084227,
0.075415,
0.065738,
0.055811,
0.04613,
0.037062,
0.028855,
0.021659
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000875,
-0.002242,
-0.003408,
-0.004104,
-0.004306,
-0.004107,
-0.00364,
-0.003034,
-0.001987,
-0.00051,
0.001207,
0.002934,
0.004471,
0.00568,
0.006489,
0.006882,
0.006885,
0.006554,
0.005956,
0.005168
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
5e-06,
3e-05,
9.2e-05,
0.000215,
0.000412,
0.000686,
0.001036,
0.001456,
0.001927,
0.002416,
0.002887,
0.003304,
0.003643,
0.003887,
0.004026,
0.004062,
0.004001,
0.003853,
0.003633
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.003498,
-0.008968,
-0.013631,
-0.016416,
-0.017226,
-0.016428,
-0.01456,
-0.012136,
-0.007946,
-0.00204,
0.00483,
0.011737,
0.017885,
0.02272,
0.025956,
0.027528,
0.027542,
0.026214,
0.023825,
0.020673
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000759,
0.000788,
0.000862,
0.000975,
0.001111,
0.001254,
0.001391,
0.001512,
0.001613,
0.001679,
0.001695,
0.001654,
0.001556,
0.001406,
0.001215,
0.000998,
0.000767,
0.000536,
0.000317,
0.000116
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000875,
0.002242,
0.003408,
0.004104,
0.004306,
0.004107,
0.00364,
0.003034,
0.001987,
0.00051,
-0.001207,
-0.002934,
-0.004471,
-0.00568,
-0.006489,
-0.006882,
-0.006885,
-0.006554,
-0.005956,
-0.005168
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.02443,
0.025487,
0.023841,
0.019457,
0.01277,
0.004432,
-0.004866,
-0.014489,
-0.023909,
-0.032337,
-0.039048,
-0.043559,
-0.045681,
-0.045481,
-0.043214,
-0.03926,
-0.03406,
-0.028067,
-0.021703,
-0.015338
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.021613,
-0.026234,
-0.031217,
-0.036378,
-0.041339,
-0.045734,
-0.0493,
-0.051906,
-0.053545,
-0.053931,
-0.052786,
-0.049987,
-0.045609,
-0.039891,
-0.033183,
-0.025886,
-0.018401,
-0.011096,
-0.004281,
0.001807
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.013312,
-0.01369,
-0.015332,
-0.018057,
-0.021465,
-0.025132,
-0.028715,
-0.031978,
-0.034792,
-0.036784,
-0.03759,
-0.037003,
-0.035007,
-0.03175,
-0.027496,
-0.022568,
-0.017304,
-0.01202,
-0.006988,
-0.002426
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.013664,
-0.014176,
-0.015511,
-0.017548,
-0.020003,
-0.022581,
-0.025039,
-0.027217,
-0.029031,
-0.030214,
-0.030511,
-0.029775,
-0.028001,
-0.025302,
-0.021876,
-0.017963,
-0.013811,
-0.009656,
-0.005697,
-0.002096
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.029342,
-0.037224,
-0.029656,
-0.019732,
-0.006038,
0.011094,
0.030237,
0.050254,
0.081818,
0.108091,
0.12633,
0.135199,
0.134894,
0.126623,
0.112064,
0.092997,
0.071094,
0.04781,
0.024332,
0.001584
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.053455,
-0.122445,
-0.190625,
-0.268311,
-0.362763,
-0.477381,
-0.612805,
-0.768707,
-0.865552,
-0.914693,
-0.924213,
-0.901815,
-0.855154,
-0.791462,
-0.717168,
-0.637675,
-0.55729,
-0.479265,
-0.405878,
-0.338635
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0434,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 12,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0478,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2707,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}irf_v64_us_cut_200_ch
{
"record_id": "irf_v64_us_cut_200_ch",
"model": {
"name": "global_macro",
"engine": "global_macro_v64",
"contract": "v6.4"
},
"question": "US policy rate -200bp",
"shock": {
"id": "us_cut_200",
"spec": {
"monetary": {
"US": -200.0
}
},
"units": {
"monetary": "bp_deviation"
},
"held_fixed": {
"oil": 80.0,
"metals": 0.0,
"risk_premium": 0.0,
"vix": 15.0,
"housing": {},
"fiscal": {},
"tfp": {},
"bank_equity": {},
"equity": {},
"sovereign_spread": {},
"bilateral_tariffs": []
}
},
"country": {
"iso2": "CH",
"name": "Switzerland"
},
"horizon": {
"freq": "Q",
"n": 20
},
"series": {
"Y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000753,
0.001106,
0.002031,
0.003624,
0.005889,
0.008577,
0.011432,
0.01438,
0.016611,
0.017932,
0.018158,
0.017423,
0.015959,
0.014001,
0.011759,
0.009409,
0.007085,
0.00489,
0.002898,
0.001156
]
},
"C": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0006,
0.001155,
0.001683,
0.002339,
0.003287,
0.004503,
0.005883,
0.007372,
0.00855,
0.009306,
0.009543,
0.009306,
0.008694,
0.007814,
0.006758,
0.005606,
0.004423,
0.003258,
0.002153,
0.001139
]
},
"pi_cpi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.012159,
-0.02057,
-0.02068,
-0.017422,
-0.01355,
-0.0104,
-0.008488,
-0.007866,
-0.002506,
0.003838,
0.009189,
0.012774,
0.014504,
0.014632,
0.013552,
0.011675,
0.009359,
0.006893,
0.004498,
0.002326
]
},
"i": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002918,
-0.007782,
-0.01239,
-0.015786,
-0.017805,
-0.018692,
-0.018848,
-0.018679,
-0.017114,
-0.014006,
-0.009756,
-0.004956,
-0.000179,
0.004122,
0.007646,
0.010241,
0.011872,
0.012592,
0.012516,
0.011791
]
},
"RER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.067551,
-0.139419,
-0.183778,
-0.210818,
-0.22817,
-0.241577,
-0.255257,
-0.272095,
-0.261362,
-0.234126,
-0.198662,
-0.160929,
-0.124993,
-0.093404,
-0.067494,
-0.047712,
-0.033932,
-0.025637,
-0.022059,
-0.02232
]
},
"P_H": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000134,
0.000376,
0.000786,
0.001419,
0.002324,
0.003524,
0.005013,
0.006782,
0.008712,
0.010662,
0.012481,
0.01405,
0.015295,
0.016176,
0.016689,
0.016853,
0.016701,
0.016278,
0.015635,
0.014822
]
},
"Q_B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.029793,
0.078522,
0.137181,
0.202122,
0.27092,
0.342259,
0.415729,
0.49121,
0.358226,
0.244505,
0.149527,
0.073022,
0.014248,
-0.028853,
-0.056027,
-0.071687,
-0.083102,
-0.088147,
-0.087614,
-0.082537
]
},
"equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.012423,
0.029234,
0.051492,
0.078427,
0.109311,
0.142714,
0.177477,
0.213253,
0.180313,
0.149803,
0.120796,
0.093735,
0.069304,
0.048024,
0.030161,
0.015738,
0.004587,
-0.003579,
-0.009123,
-0.012437
]
},
"y2": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.014113,
-0.015887,
-0.016665,
-0.016336,
-0.014982,
-0.012779,
-0.009927,
-0.006615,
-0.003,
0.000623,
0.003948,
0.006732,
0.008825,
0.010162,
0.01075,
0.010658,
0.009998,
0.008902,
0.007506,
0.005939
]
},
"y5": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.004407,
-0.003735,
-0.002905,
-0.001939,
-0.000902,
0.000143,
0.001149,
0.00209,
0.002965,
0.003715,
0.004279,
0.004612,
0.004698,
0.004547,
0.004191,
0.003677,
0.003054,
0.002375,
0.001687,
0.00103
]
},
"y10": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.001985,
-0.0019,
-0.001681,
-0.001336,
-0.000895,
-0.000395,
0.000135,
0.000676,
0.001219,
0.001726,
0.002159,
0.002488,
0.002699,
0.002791,
0.002776,
0.002672,
0.002502,
0.00229,
0.002058,
0.001826
]
},
"N": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
4.4e-05,
0.000219,
0.00062,
0.001325,
0.002331,
0.003576,
0.004995,
0.006538,
0.00807,
0.009403,
0.010393,
0.010963,
0.011094,
0.010811,
0.010166,
0.009227,
0.00807,
0.00677,
0.005396
]
},
"w": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
-0.001283,
-0.004537,
-0.009462,
-0.015436,
-0.021864,
-0.028312,
-0.034542,
-0.040487,
-0.045593,
-0.049292,
-0.051213,
-0.05124,
-0.049478,
-0.046195,
-0.041753,
-0.03655,
-0.030973,
-0.025368,
-0.020021
]
},
"I": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.006485,
0.015128,
0.025227,
0.035488,
0.045605,
0.05497,
0.063464,
0.071656,
0.074943,
0.073158,
0.066375,
0.056177,
0.044164,
0.031687,
0.019768,
0.009097,
7.4e-05,
-0.007119,
-0.012475,
-0.016103
]
},
"K": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
3.2e-05,
0.000108,
0.000234,
0.000412,
0.00064,
0.000915,
0.001232,
0.00159,
0.001965,
0.002331,
0.002662,
0.002943,
0.003164,
0.003323,
0.003421,
0.003467,
0.003467,
0.003432,
0.003369,
0.003289
]
},
"Q": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00454,
0.01059,
0.017659,
0.024841,
0.031923,
0.038479,
0.044425,
0.050159,
0.05246,
0.05121,
0.046463,
0.039324,
0.030915,
0.022181,
0.013838,
0.006368,
5.2e-05,
-0.004983,
-0.008732,
-0.011272
]
},
"G": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.000151,
-0.000221,
-0.000408,
-0.000729,
-0.001186,
-0.00173,
-0.002307,
-0.002904,
-0.003357,
-0.003628,
-0.003678,
-0.003533,
-0.00324,
-0.002846,
-0.002393,
-0.001917,
-0.001446,
-0.001,
-0.000595,
-0.00024
]
},
"B": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1.1e-05,
5.9e-05,
0.000171,
0.000378,
0.000688,
0.001097,
0.001594,
0.002169,
0.002789,
0.0034,
0.003955,
0.004416,
0.004762,
0.004981,
0.005071,
0.00504,
0.004897,
0.004658,
0.004341
]
},
"NX": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.0136,
-0.028056,
-0.037188,
-0.043109,
-0.047385,
-0.0511,
-0.054992,
-0.05957,
-0.058562,
-0.054053,
-0.047538,
-0.040148,
-0.032716,
-0.025814,
-0.019796,
-0.014839,
-0.010999,
-0.008242,
-0.00647,
-0.005548
]
},
"pi": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.008511,
-0.014399,
-0.014476,
-0.012195,
-0.009485,
-0.00728,
-0.005941,
-0.005506,
-0.001754,
0.002686,
0.006432,
0.008942,
0.010153,
0.010243,
0.009487,
0.008173,
0.006551,
0.004825,
0.003149,
0.001629
]
},
"mc": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000452,
0.000664,
0.001223,
0.002187,
0.003559,
0.005189,
0.006922,
0.008712,
0.010072,
0.010885,
0.011034,
0.0106,
0.00972,
0.008537,
0.007179,
0.005751,
0.004337,
0.003,
0.001784,
0.000719
]
},
"unemployment": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.000117,
-0.000259,
-0.000509,
-0.000943,
-0.00162,
-0.002545,
-0.003681,
-0.004989,
-0.006317,
-0.007517,
-0.008452,
-0.00904,
-0.009253,
-0.00911,
-0.008655,
-0.00795,
-0.00706,
-0.006053,
-0.004989,
-0.003921
]
},
"credit_supply": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
1e-06,
7e-06,
2.1e-05,
4.7e-05,
8.5e-05,
0.000134,
0.000193,
0.000261,
0.000332,
0.000402,
0.000463,
0.000512,
0.000546,
0.000565,
0.000569,
0.000558,
0.000536,
0.000504,
0.000464
]
},
"lending_spread": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
]
},
"gdp_services": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.000596,
0.000876,
0.001609,
0.00287,
0.004664,
0.006793,
0.009054,
0.011389,
0.013156,
0.014202,
0.014381,
0.013799,
0.01264,
0.011089,
0.009313,
0.007452,
0.005611,
0.003873,
0.002296,
0.000916
]
},
"gdp_manufacturing": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.020431,
0.042022,
0.055354,
0.06343,
0.068495,
0.072255,
0.076011,
0.080682,
0.076908,
0.068091,
0.056839,
0.045062,
0.034041,
0.02455,
0.016963,
0.011372,
0.007692,
0.00572,
0.005188,
0.0058
]
},
"r": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.00073,
-0.001946,
-0.003098,
-0.003946,
-0.004451,
-0.004673,
-0.004712,
-0.00467,
-0.004278,
-0.003502,
-0.002439,
-0.001239,
-4.5e-05,
0.00103,
0.001912,
0.00256,
0.002968,
0.003148,
0.003129,
0.002948
]
},
"bank_equity": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.0,
4e-06,
1.9e-05,
5.4e-05,
0.000117,
0.000212,
0.000335,
0.000482,
0.000651,
0.000831,
0.001005,
0.001158,
0.00128,
0.001366,
0.001413,
0.001422,
0.001396,
0.001339,
0.001259,
0.00116
]
},
"vix": {
"unit": "index_level",
"path": [
15.0,
15.000107,
15.000515,
15.001392,
15.002846,
15.004785,
15.007002,
15.00934,
15.011716,
15.013845,
15.01535,
15.016022,
15.015836,
15.01489,
15.013346,
15.01139,
15.009197,
15.006924,
15.004698,
15.002615
]
},
"y3m": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
-0.002918,
-0.007782,
-0.01239,
-0.015786,
-0.017805,
-0.018692,
-0.018848,
-0.018679,
-0.017114,
-0.014006,
-0.009756,
-0.004956,
-0.000179,
0.004122,
0.007646,
0.010241,
0.011872,
0.012592,
0.012516,
0.011791
]
},
"y30": {
"unit": "pp_dev",
"path": [
0.000185,
0.000208,
0.000272,
0.000374,
0.000504,
0.000652,
0.000807,
0.000963,
0.001118,
0.001259,
0.001375,
0.001456,
0.001496,
0.001497,
0.001462,
0.001397,
0.00131,
0.00121,
0.001104,
0.000998
]
},
"Q_B_3m": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.00073,
0.001946,
0.003098,
0.003946,
0.004451,
0.004673,
0.004712,
0.00467,
0.004278,
0.003502,
0.002439,
0.001239,
4.5e-05,
-0.00103,
-0.001912,
-0.00256,
-0.002968,
-0.003148,
-0.003129,
-0.002948
]
},
"Q_B_2y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.026814,
0.030185,
0.031663,
0.031038,
0.028466,
0.024279,
0.018861,
0.012569,
0.0057,
-0.001184,
-0.007501,
-0.012791,
-0.016768,
-0.019308,
-0.020425,
-0.02025,
-0.018997,
-0.016914,
-0.014261,
-0.011283
]
},
"Q_B_5y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.019829,
0.016806,
0.01307,
0.008727,
0.004059,
-0.000646,
-0.005171,
-0.009407,
-0.01334,
-0.016719,
-0.019258,
-0.020755,
-0.02114,
-0.020461,
-0.018861,
-0.016545,
-0.013744,
-0.010687,
-0.00759,
-0.004635
]
},
"Q_B_10y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.016274,
0.015581,
0.013787,
0.010955,
0.007342,
0.003239,
-0.00111,
-0.005546,
-0.009992,
-0.014153,
-0.017704,
-0.020404,
-0.022132,
-0.022887,
-0.022761,
-0.021909,
-0.020516,
-0.018778,
-0.016878,
-0.014976
]
},
"Q_B_30y": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.003328,
-0.003742,
-0.004887,
-0.006726,
-0.009075,
-0.011729,
-0.014517,
-0.01733,
-0.020117,
-0.022671,
-0.024758,
-0.026206,
-0.026934,
-0.026945,
-0.026308,
-0.025142,
-0.023584,
-0.02178,
-0.019865,
-0.01796
]
},
"NEER": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
0.001874,
0.019458,
0.034678,
0.041143,
0.042832,
0.042648,
0.042647,
0.044127,
0.040951,
0.027684,
0.009151,
-0.011176,
-0.030883,
-0.048428,
-0.063,
-0.07434,
-0.082522,
-0.087855,
-0.090798,
-0.091875
]
},
"USD": {
"unit": "pct_dev_from_baseline",
"path": [
-0.073894,
-0.163163,
-0.239295,
-0.314611,
-0.397882,
-0.495207,
-0.61055,
-0.746077,
-0.812912,
-0.829047,
-0.809051,
-0.764719,
-0.705464,
-0.638594,
-0.569542,
-0.50217,
-0.439074,
-0.381822,
-0.331141,
-0.2872
]
},
"P_energy": {
"unit": "USD/bbl (level)",
"path": [
80.0,
80.002144,
80.010295,
80.027836,
80.056918,
80.095706,
80.140045,
80.1868,
80.234312,
80.276906,
80.307003,
80.320448,
80.316722,
80.297795,
80.266925,
80.227794,
80.183946,
80.13849,
80.093962,
80.052303
]
},
"P_metals": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000824,
100.003947,
100.010634,
100.021635,
100.036185,
100.052676,
100.069909,
100.087241,
100.102553,
100.113069,
100.117314,
100.115151,
100.10734,
100.095105,
100.079826,
100.062843,
100.045348,
100.028324,
100.012534
]
},
"P_food": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.00116,
100.005682,
100.015637,
100.032442,
100.055423,
100.082541,
100.112038,
100.142789,
100.171621,
100.194208,
100.207701,
100.211058,
100.204662,
100.189833,
100.168405,
100.142402,
100.113813,
100.084441,
100.055819
]
},
"P_gas": {
"unit": "USD/mmBtu (level)",
"path": [
4.0,
4.000162,
4.000779,
4.002108,
4.004316,
4.007267,
4.010648,
4.014223,
4.017866,
4.021144,
4.023475,
4.024538,
4.024289,
4.022878,
4.020553,
4.017596,
4.014277,
4.010831,
4.007452,
4.004284
]
},
"P_copper": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000669,
100.003195,
100.008592,
100.017469,
100.029195,
100.042457,
100.056293,
100.070204,
100.082465,
100.090816,
100.094093,
100.092235,
100.0859,
100.076103,
100.063962,
100.050541,
100.036767,
100.023397,
100.011006
]
},
"P_wheat": {
"unit": "index (level)",
"path": [
100.0,
100.000621,
100.002985,
100.008044,
100.016338,
100.027276,
100.039631,
100.052458,
100.065225,
100.076351,
100.083778,
100.086388,
100.084062,
100.077378,
100.067294,
100.054914,
100.041323,
100.027494,
100.014232,
100.002158
]
},
"P_gold": {
"unit": "USD/oz (level)",
"path": [
2002.527916,
2006.101227,
2010.209481,
2014.939246,
2020.177314,
2025.827847,
2031.830384,
2038.143764,
2030.329703,
2023.494922,
2017.623222,
2012.703743,
2008.706634,
2005.575896,
2003.232258,
2001.580051,
2000.51482,
1999.930646,
1999.725641,
1999.806254
]
}
},
"summary": {
"GDP_peak_pct": 0.0182,
"GDP_peak_quarter": 11,
"CPI_3yr_pp": -0.0878,
"CPI_3yr_definition": "sum of quarterly pi_cpi IRF over Q1\u2013Q12",
"equity_peak_pct": 0.2133,
"equity_peak_quarter": 8
},
"qa_checks": {
"json_matches_peaks": true,
"complete_q1_q20": true,
"no_nan": true,
"rer_sign": "increase=real_depreciation",
"ok": true,
"reasons": []
}
}