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Equity Weakness Tests Global Risk Appetite (10/18/2026). The Saturday cross-asset letter: 40+ economies, policy, rates, equities, FX and commodities. Free. Archive of Global Macro Watch.

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Recent CPI data exceeded expectations, lifting near-term policy-rate expectations. Equities sold off sharply, with the Nasdaq 100 declining 4.82% week-over-week to 29,187.55 while the S&P 500 fell 1.89% to 7,659.44. Federal Reserve speakers maintained data dependence without shifting forward guidance, even as the 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.74%. WTI crude rose 5.63% week-over-week to 99.02, reinforcing the dollar’s mid-cycle yield advantage against EUR/USD at 1.12. We forecast +72k nonfarm payrolls for the Oct 2026 report (due Nov 6; 80% band +16k to +299k), unemployment at 4.2% — RoboMacro model ensemble.

DateNote
10/18/2026Equity Weakness Tests Global Risk Appetite
10/11/2026Policy Divergence Anchors Rate Paths Apart
10/04/2026Dollar Strength Tests EM Currency Resilience
09/27/2026Risk Appetite Steadies Selective Equities
09/20/2026Energy Reversal Eases Imported Inflation Risks
09/13/2026Energy Surge Tests Data-Dependent Stance
09/06/2026Energy Surge Anchors Data-Dependent Policy
08/30/2026Data Dependence Anchors Mid-Cycle Resilience
08/23/2026Commodity Surge Anchors Data-Dependent Hold
08/16/2026Energy Relief Anchors Data Dependence
08/02/2026Oil Advance Anchors Data-Dependent Stance
07/26/2026Oil Surge Anchors Policy Paths Into 2027
07/19/2026Oil Surge Tightens Conditions Amid US Disinflation
07/12/2026Oil Rebound Reprices Rate Paths Higher
07/05/2026US Resilience Pushes Fed Cut Beyond Mid-2027
06/28/2026US Resilience Delays Global Rate-Cut Hopes
06/21/2026US Inflation Resilience Pushes Rate Cuts to 2027
06/14/2026US CPI Strength Pushes Rate Cuts to 2027
06/07/2026Dollar Strength Tests EM Resilience Amid Yield Rise
05/31/2026Oil Slump Delivers Global Inflation Relief

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