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UK daily macro notes

UK Growth Beat, BoE Divides on Inflation (10/16/2026). AI-generated UK macro daily notes: Bank of England, Gilts, sterling, ONS releases, and high-frequency UK indicators. Free. Updated every UK business day.

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August GDP rose 0.1% m/m, beating the -0.1% consensus, while the three-month average accelerated to 0.7% from 0.5%, signalling firmer underlying momentum.Manufacturing production surged 1.2% m/m and industrial output gained 0.8%, both far above forecasts, as the goods trade deficit narrowed to £18.0bn.Sterling firmed to $1.33 and gilt yields held near 5.43% as markets price a possible BoE hike to 4% in November.

DateNote
10/16/2026UK Growth Beat, BoE Divides on Inflation
10/15/2026Pill Cautious as GDP Data Loom
10/14/2026BoE Chorus Intensifies Ahead of GDP Test
10/13/2026BoE Chorus Grows as Gilt Curve Steepens
10/12/2026BoE Speakers Take Stage, Gilts Firm
10/09/2026Bailey Presses Fiscal Credibility as Gilts Steady
10/08/2026Gilt Curve Steepens as Bailey, Greene Speak
10/07/2026Mann Flags Embedded Inflation as Gilts Steady
10/06/2026Oil at $100 Adds to BoE Rate Pressure
10/05/2026FTSE Gains as 10Y Gilt Yield Climbs 2bp
10/02/2026BoE Warns on AI Risks Amid Weak Housing Data
10/01/2026Consumer Credit Beats, BoE Flags AI Risks
09/30/2026Borrowing Beats as Taylor Sees No Need to Hike
09/29/2026Ramsden Flags Rate-Hike Risk, Lifting Sterling
09/28/2026Ramsden Speech Tests BoE Rate Path
09/25/2026Mixed UK PMI Data Lifts Gilt Yields
09/24/2026OECD Backs BoE Hold Amid Cooling Inflation
09/23/2026Gilts Rally on UK Borrowing Surge
09/22/2026FTSE Climbs as Gilt Yields Jump
09/21/2026BoE Holds as UK Inflation Hits 3.1%

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