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Brazil Macro Daily

Real Rates Bite as Curve Steepens (10/21/2026). AI-generated Brazil macro daily notes: Banco Central do Brasil, Copom, the real, inflation, and the fiscal mix. Free. Updated on Brazil business days.

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Ibovespa rallied 1.57% to 208,296 as USD/BRL slipped 0.55% to 5.01, but the local curve sold off with 10Y yields up 16 bp to 12.87% and 5Y up 14 bp to 12.79%.Labor-cost pressures dominate the micro narrative: unit labor costs at decade highs and "uberisation" of the workforce keep services inflation sticky against CPI at 4.58% YoY.Election runoff risk premium is building into term premia even as equities and FX celebrate — a divergence worth watching into the runoff vote.

DateNote
10/21/2026Real Rates Bite as Curve Steepens
10/20/2026Yields Jump as Election Jitters Build
10/19/2026Real Steadies as Yields Climb Pre-Runoff
10/16/2026Real Slips, Yields Jump as Risk-Off Hits BRL
10/15/2026Real Yields Ease as Confidence Beats
10/14/2026"Bonds Rally as Real Slips; Selic Path in Focus"
10/13/2026Real Rallies, Yields Sink on Election Optimism
10/12/2026"Bonds Lead Risk-On as Bolsonaro Plan Cheers Markets"
10/09/2026"CPI in Focus as Bonds Rally, Real Steadies"
10/08/2026Real Yields Lead as Election Rally Cools
10/07/2026Real Rallies, Yields Sink on Bolsonaro Surge
10/06/2026Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Lula, Bovespa Surges
10/05/2026Equities Advance Amid Election Uncertainty
10/02/2026Debt Pace Quickens as Jobs Hold Steady
10/01/2026Bovespa Climbs as Yields Ease on Jobs Data
09/30/2026Record-Low Unemployment Bolsters BRL
09/29/2026BRL Weakens Ahead of Unemployment Print
09/28/2026Bovespa Slips Ahead of Unemployment Print
09/25/2026Copom Minutes Spark Yield Rise
09/24/2026GDP Cut Weighs on BRL as Yields Rise

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